LODESTAR. PM MISSION CONTROL
state of the book · generated 2026-09-04T08:17:10 · read-only over the workspace's own stores · no scores, no sizing, no PT
351 names · 34 held · queue 72 (oldest 66d) · 291 events next 60d
SINCE LAST RUN - vs 2026-09-03
5 cells changed11 new queue items4 resolved43 aging >7d1 pulse flips
show 14 change(s)
  • 6857 VALSCAN: stale -> built
  • AVGO FIN: stale -> built
  • MU VALSCAN: stale -> built
  • RBLX DEBATE: built -> stale
  • RBLX DOSSIER: built -> stale
  • 6976 pulse: approaching: 6976-th-004, 6976-th-006
  • new: calibration-open AMAT cal-0040
  • new: calibration-open AMAT cal-0041
  • new: calibration-open CRDO cal-0033
  • new: calibration-open CRDO cal-0034
  • new: calibration-open CRDO cal-0035
  • new: calibration-open MRVL cal-0036
  • new: calibration-open MRVL cal-0037
  • new: calibration-open MRVL cal-0038
FALSIFICATION WATCH - 20 of 33 held name(s) flagged; click a ticker for its drawer. The "thesis pulse" toolbar toggle is the board-wide VIEW of this evidence health; "run /red-team" builds a fresh adversarial report for ONE name
long⚠ 2 approaching: 6976-th-004, 6976-th-0063 zero-challenge claim(s) · 15d since a challenge run /red-team
long3 zero-challenge claim(s) · 2d since a challenge1 falsified run /red-team
long3 falsified run /red-team
17 more held name(s) carry zero-challenge claims (confirmation-bias watch) - expand, or action via /red-team
long4 zero-challenge claim(s) · 24d since a challenge run /red-team
long4 zero-challenge claim(s) · 128d since a challenge run /red-team
long3 zero-challenge claim(s) · 37d since a challenge run /red-team
long3 zero-challenge claim(s) · 81d since a challenge run /red-team
long3 zero-challenge claim(s) · 93d since a challenge run /red-team
long3 zero-challenge claim(s) · 36d since a challenge run /red-team
long3 zero-challenge claim(s) · 82d since a challenge run /red-team
long2 zero-challenge claim(s) · 15d since a challenge run /red-team
short2 zero-challenge claim(s) · 79d since a challenge run /red-team
long2 zero-challenge claim(s) · 37d since a challenge run /red-team
long2 zero-challenge claim(s) · 2d since a challenge run /red-team
long1 zero-challenge claim(s) · 37d since a challenge run /red-team
long1 zero-challenge claim(s) · 14d since a challenge run /red-team
long1 zero-challenge claim(s) · 60d since a challenge run /red-team
long1 zero-challenge claim(s) · 36d since a challenge run /red-team
short1 zero-challenge claim(s) · 23d since a challenge run /red-team
short1 zero-challenge claim(s) · 37d since a challenge run /red-team
How this dashboard works - the daily loop
  1. Read top-down. The SINCE-LAST-RUN ribbon is what moved since the previous build; the FALSIFICATION WATCH strip above is the most urgent thesis signal on the page.
  2. 01 Coverage is the estate. One row per name, four views (build / tape & targets / pulse / comps). Click any cell or ticker to open its drawer: the latest report, what is missing, and the buttons to fix it.
  3. Two button kinds. run = whitelisted click-to-run (pulls, processing, report builds) in a visible window you can Ctrl+C; ⧉ copy = analyst-gated commands you paste yourself. Judgment (adjudicate / promote / veto) lives on the Review Board (nav 09), never here; SAVE in tape & targets records YOUR target inputs, journaled.
  4. The loop: 00 Book (which held names moved, by named tier) → 05 the numbered decisions (reply decide N verb on the standup thread, or click) → 02 radar (who prints this week) → drill drawers as needed. 06 freshness / 07 ops are exception strips - read them only when a chip is red. Everything is counts and dates from the stores - no scores, no sizing, no price targets. Report-only work (reviews, reconcile-gap, red-team, falsification checks) runs itself in the nightly analyst shift - it is never yours to run.
What moved against the theses
00

Book

The held names ranked by what moved against or for their theses since the last brief - named tiers (thesis at risk / event window / thesis fed / quiet), never a score. Same facts as the standup's Book; the numbered decisions below are the same list the brief numbers.

Since 2026-09-03T08:31 (watermark): 14 at risk, 0 in the event window, 10 fed, 10 quiet of 34 held. Watch fires are count thresholds; only a falsification check tests a kill condition.

Credo longthesis at risk
what changed a MATERIAL CHALLENGE report; an adverse verdict for the position; hard new evidence against a core claim (or confirming a named risk); new data / a non-adverse report; adjudication due or staged claims - 2 hard challenge(s) on crdo-th-005 (T1 mgmt/print 2026-09-01)
my read init-valuation valuation_scan_v9.md: Credo fell 29% in four sessions on a beat-and-raise; at $165 the reverse-DCF still implies a 77% revenue CAGR against 55% consensus, and the band engine's own current multiples are stuck at pre-crash levels.
the decision nothing for you to decide on this name today
Micron longthesis at risk
what changed a MATERIAL CHALLENGE report
my read init-valuation valuation_scan_v6.md: The peer bands answer what the last run could not: SK hynix and Samsung sit at the 1.2nd and 1.4th percentile of their own forward-P/E history against Micron's 11.0th, so the peak-earnings discount is the whole memory complex.
the decision nothing for you to decide on this name today
Applied Materials longthesis at risk
what changed a MATERIAL CHALLENGE report; new data / a non-adverse report; adjudication due or staged claims
my read earnings-review review_FY26Q3_v5.md: A 6-9% beat-and-raise the market rejected: consensus FY27 EPS rose 5.7%, yet the stock has fallen 18% against a sector down 9% and the forward multiple 20% - most of the de-rate the bear claim named, without the estimate cut it named as trigger.
the decision nothing for you to decide on this name today
Lotes longthesis at risk
what changed an unreconciled divergence - divergence unreconciled since 2026-09-03
my read no analyst read yet
the decision nothing for you to decide on this name today
Murata longthesis at risk
what changed an unreconciled divergence; adjudication due or staged claims - divergence unreconciled since 2026-09-03
my read no analyst read yet
the decision nothing for you to decide on this name today
Onto Innovation longthesis at risk
what changed a watch rule crossed (count threshold) - watch: no hard evidence in 120 days on onto-th-003, first crossed 2026-09-03
my read no analyst read yet
the decision nothing for you to decide on this name today
Teradyne longthesis at risk
what changed an unreconciled divergence; new evidence - divergence unreconciled since 2026-09-01
my read no analyst read yet
the decision nothing for you to decide on this name today
Taiyo Yuden longthesis at risk
what changed an adverse verdict for the position; an unreconciled divergence; a falsification check at MET/APPROACHING; new data / a non-adverse report; adjudication due or staged claims - divergence unreconciled since 2026-08-26; check: 6976-th-004 APPROACHING; 6976-th-006 APPROACHING
my read falsification-check falsification_check_v1.md: No kill condition is met: the FX-dependency risk claim is freshly confirmed with ~58% of the FY27 OP raise coming from the yen assumption, while the AI-server torque claim cannot be tested at all - 6976 discloses no AI-server sales line.
the decision nothing for you to decide on this name today
Rubrik longthesis at risk
what changed a MATERIAL CHALLENGE report; hard new evidence against a core claim (or confirming a named risk); new data / a non-adverse report - 2 hard challenge(s) on rbrk-th-006 (T1 mgmt/print 2026-08-27)
my read earnings-review review_FY27Q2_v1.md: Rubrik beat every guided line and raised all five FY27 guides, clearing consensus on revenue and EPS - yet fell 13%, because cloud net-new ARR ran at 20% versus 35% total and the Identity ARR disclosure vanished.
the decision nothing for you to decide on this name today
Marvell longthesis at risk
what changed a MATERIAL CHALLENGE report; hard new evidence against a core claim (or confirming a named risk); new data / a non-adverse report - 1 hard challenge(s) on mrvl-th-003 (T1 MRVL mgmt/print 2026-08-27)
my read drift drift_v1.md: Across four calls Marvell's product-line forward disclosure collapsed from about 13 numbers a call to two, while corporate guidance got more precise - and the demand-cover language under the largest FY28 claim degraded from purchase orders to management judgement.
the decision nothing for you to decide on this name today
Broadcom longthesis at risk
what changed hard new evidence against a core claim (or confirming a named risk); new data / a non-adverse report; adjudication due or staged claims - 3 hard challenge(s) on avgo-th-004 (T1 mgmt/print 2026-09-02)
my read earnings-review review_FY26Q3_v1.md: Broadcom beat on every P&L line and lifted AI semis to $16.7bn, but guided Q4 revenue 1.6% below consensus and non-GAAP margin down to 66% - the AI line accelerates while everything else is guided lower.
the decision nothing for you to decide on this name today
ASML shortthesis at risk
what changed an unreconciled divergence - divergence unreconciled since 2026-09-02
my read no analyst read yet
the decision nothing for you to decide on this name today
Bloom Energy longthesis at risk
what changed an unreconciled divergence; adjudication due or staged claims - divergence unreconciled since 2026-08-31
my read no analyst read yet
the decision nothing for you to decide on this name today
KLA longthesis at risk
what changed an unreconciled divergence - divergence unreconciled since 2026-08-27
my read no analyst read yet
the decision nothing for you to decide on this name today
Thesis fed: (new evidence) · (new evidence; new data / a non-adverse report) · (new data / a non-adverse report) · (new data / a non-adverse report) · (new evidence; adjudication due or staged claims) · (new data / a non-adverse report) · (adjudication due or staged claims; a waypoint past due) · (adjudication due or staged claims) · (adjudication due or staged claims) · (adjudication due or staged claims)
Quiet: 10 name(s) (0522, 2454, 5536, AMD, ASMI, CVLT, GIL, IFX, LRCX, MKSI)
What's built
01

Coverage board

What's built per name. Click a chip for the gap + its fix; click a row for the full drawer.

One row per universe name, one column per build stage. States come from the stores themselves this run - nothing cached, nothing invented.

build tape & targets thesis pulse comps all held long short watch closed gaps only staged-anything dense ⌨ / j k f d
Build state per stage - what exists, what's stale, what's gated. Chips open the report or the fix.
TickerSCAFFOLDGATEFINCGPRIMERPEERSDEBATEFINSCANVALSCANDOSSIEREXPOSURETHESISTACTICALCORPUS
JavaScript required for the interactive board - the data blob is embedded below.
builtstalestagedgatedTHIN-ERRform is the state: filled=built · hollow=stale · dot=staged · dashed=gated · inverse=error. built chips OPEN the latest report; gated/missing/THIN chips explain what is missing + the fix; row click = full drawer. gold left rule = held name; negative rule = claims approaching falsification
What's next on the tape
02

Earnings & events radar - next 14 days

Who prints or hosts events in the next 60 days, and whether you're ready for each one.

Living earnings calendar + events calendar. Position names first per day. Waypoints are promoted thesis catalyst dates. Materials = /master-init readiness (feeds auto-pulled ahead of the print; hover for the remaining upload checklist). The next 14 days show open; day 15-60 fold into the dropdown below.

2 covered name(s) print in the next 14 days with NO preview: IQE (Q2 FY26, 2026-09-07) /earnings-preview IQE  ·  LPTH (Q4 FY26, 2026-09-10) /earnings-preview LPTH
Print week - next 7 days
ALMU T-3
2026-09-07 · watch · Aeluma
previewv1
consensus vintagen/a
prior reviewnone
revision slopen/a
target gapno target
divergence fires0
open queue items0
print materials8 gap(s) - click for the list
auto filings store-cure: /financials ALMU run
you consensus (VA/CIQ historical + forward consensus (3FS)): drop a VA grid in Intake -> python scripts/adapters/va_grid_intake.py ALMU
you multiples (Market Data/ALMU_multiples_daily.csv): python scripts/adapters/va_grid_valuation_pull.py ALMU
you estimates (Market Data/ALMU_estimates_daily.csv): python scripts/adapters/va_grid_valuation_pull.py ALMU
you broker_model (>=1 ingested broker model): add a broker earnings model .xlsx -> Corpus/Broker Models/ALMU/ then /extract-broker ALMU
you transcripts: upload earnings-call transcripts to Intake/ then /process-dump
you broker_reports: upload broker reports to Intake/ then /process-dump
feed pull_all --ticker ALMU (regulator filings -> Corpus) (ok)
auto rows re-pull daily (morning Step A2, ≤14d to print); "you" rows are licensed uploads only the analyst can supply (VA/CIQ grid, broker model, transcripts)
IQE T-3
2026-09-07 · watch · IQE
previewnone run preview
consensus vintagen/a
prior reviewnone
revision slopen/a
target gapno target
divergence fires0
open queue items0
print materials8 gap(s) - click for the list
auto filings store-cure: /financials IQE run
you consensus (VA/CIQ historical + forward consensus (3FS)): drop a VA grid in Intake -> python scripts/adapters/va_grid_intake.py IQE
you multiples (Market Data/IQE_multiples_daily.csv): python scripts/adapters/va_grid_valuation_pull.py IQE
you estimates (Market Data/IQE_estimates_daily.csv): python scripts/adapters/va_grid_valuation_pull.py IQE
you broker_model (>=1 ingested broker model): add a broker earnings model .xlsx -> Corpus/Broker Models/IQE/ then /extract-broker IQE
you transcripts: upload earnings-call transcripts to Intake/ then /process-dump
you broker_reports: upload broker reports to Intake/ then /process-dump
feed pull_all --ticker IQE (regulator filings -> Corpus) (ok)
auto rows re-pull daily (morning Step A2, ≤14d to print); "you" rows are licensed uploads only the analyst can supply (VA/CIQ grid, broker model, transcripts)
LPTH T-6
2026-09-10 · watch · LightPath
previewnone run preview
consensus vintagen/a
prior reviewnone
revision slopen/a
target gapno target
divergence fires0
open queue items0
print materials8 gap(s) - click for the list
auto filings store-cure: /financials LPTH run
you consensus (VA/CIQ historical + forward consensus (3FS)): drop a VA grid in Intake -> python scripts/adapters/va_grid_intake.py LPTH
you multiples (Market Data/LPTH_multiples_daily.csv): python scripts/adapters/va_grid_valuation_pull.py LPTH
you estimates (Market Data/LPTH_estimates_daily.csv): python scripts/adapters/va_grid_valuation_pull.py LPTH
you broker_model (>=1 ingested broker model): add a broker earnings model .xlsx -> Corpus/Broker Models/LPTH/ then /extract-broker LPTH
you transcripts: upload earnings-call transcripts to Intake/ then /process-dump
you broker_reports: upload broker reports to Intake/ then /process-dump
feed pull_all --ticker LPTH (regulator filings -> Corpus) (ok)
auto rows re-pull daily (morning Step A2, ≤14d to print); "you" rows are licensed uploads only the analyst can supply (VA/CIQ grid, broker model, transcripts)
allEarnings 197Investor / access 36Catalyst 6Waypoint 6Ex-div 46
DateT-xTickerEvent Status / confPreviewLast reviewMaterials
2026-09-04today 2327 Yageo longinvestor-day 2327 invited investor forumhigh---
2026-09-04today TER Teradyne longex-dividend TER ex-dividendmed---
2026-09-04today 3026 Holy Stone watchinvestor-day 3026 invited investor forumhigh---
2026-09-04today- conference 29th European Microwave Week (EuMW 2026)high---
2026-09-04today005290 Dongjin Semichem watchinvestor-day 005290 investor briefing (IR)high---
2026-09-07T-3 ALMU Aeluma watchearnings Q4 FY26 printVENDOR / med · DISPUTEDpreview v1none8 gap(s)
2026-09-07T-3 IQE IQE watchearnings Q2 FY26 printVENDOR / lowno previewnone8 gap(s)
2026-09-08T-4- conference Citi Global Technology Conferencehigh---
2026-09-08T-4- conference SPIE Photomask Technology + EUV Lithography 2026high---
2026-09-08T-4- conference SPIE Photomask Technology + Extreme Ultraviolet Lithography 2026high---
2026-09-08T-42379 Realtek Semiconductor watchex-dividend 2379 ex-dividendmed---
2026-09-09T-5- conference China International Optoelectronic Exposition (CIOE 2026)high---
2026-09-09T-5- conference International Integrated Circuit Innovation Expo (IICIE 2026)high---
2026-09-09T-5AVT Avnet watchex-dividend AVT ex-dividendmed---
2026-09-10T-6 LPTH LightPath watchearnings Q4 FY26 printVENDOR / med · DISPUTEDno previewnone8 gap(s)
2026-09-10T-6 NVDA NVIDIA watchex-dividend NVDA ex-dividendmed---
2026-09-10T-63529 eMemory watchinvestor-day 3529 invited investor forumhigh---
2026-09-10T-6VSH Vishay Intertechnology watchex-dividend VSH ex-dividendmed---
2026-09-14T-10- conference Energy Conversion Congress & Expo Europe (ECCE Europe 2026)high---
2026-09-15T-11- conference AI Infra Summit 2026high---
2026-09-15T-11RSW Renishaw watchearnings Q4 FY26 printVENDOR / med · DISPUTEDno previewnone9 gap(s)
2026-09-16T-12 2330 TSMC longex-dividend 2330 ex-dividendmed---
2026-09-16T-12 CBRS Cerebras Systems shortcatalyst CBRS lock-up early release: 6.7% of eligible securities (tranche 3 of 3)high---
2026-09-17T-13 KLIC Kulicke & Soffa watchex-dividend KLIC ex-dividendmed---
2026-09-17T-13- semicon-event SEMICON India 2026high---
2026-09-17T-13- conference Automotive Electronics Forum 2026high---
+265 more - day 15 to 60
DateT-xTickerEventStatus / confPreviewLast reviewMaterials
2026-09-20T-16- conference 3rd Biannual IEEE Workshop on Wide Bandgap Power Devices & Applications in Europe (WiPDA-Europe 2026)high---
2026-09-20T-16- conference 52nd European Conference on Optical Communication (ECOC 2026)high---
2026-09-21T-17 MU Micron longearnings Q4 FY26 printVENDOR / med · DISPUTEDno previewreview_FY26Q3_v1 (2026-07-03)ready
2026-09-22T-18 APH Amphenol watchex-dividend APH ex-dividendmed---
2026-09-22T-18 STM STMicroelectronics watchex-dividend STM ex-dividendmed---
2026-09-23T-19 LRCX Lam Research longex-dividend LRCX ex-dividendmed---
2026-09-23T-19- conference TSMC 2026 North America OIP Ecosystem Forumhigh---
2026-09-23T-193529 eMemory watchinvestor-day 3529 invited investor forumhigh---
2026-09-23T-19GFS GlobalFoundries watchex-dividend GFS ex-dividendmed---
2026-09-24T-20- conference SSIA Summit & Semiconductor Dinner 2026high---
2026-09-25T-21CTS CTS watchex-dividend CTS ex-dividendmed---
2026-09-28T-24- conference IMAPS Symposium 2026 (advanced packaging)high---
2026-09-29T-25 6762 TDK shortex-dividend 6762 ex-dividendmed---
2026-09-29T-25 6976 Taiyo Yuden longex-dividend 6976 ex-dividendmed---
2026-09-29T-25 6981 Murata longex-dividend 6981 ex-dividendmed---
2026-09-29T-25 8035 Tokyo Electron longex-dividend 8035 ex-dividendmed---
2026-09-29T-25 4047 Kanto Denka watchex-dividend 4047 ex-dividendmed---
2026-09-29T-25 4062 Ibiden watchex-dividend 4062 ex-dividendmed---
2026-09-29T-25 5802 Sumitomo Electric watchex-dividend 5802 ex-dividendmed---
2026-09-29T-25 6237 IWAKI watchex-dividend 6237 ex-dividendmed---
2026-09-29T-25 6503 Mitsubishi Electric watchex-dividend 6503 ex-dividendmed---
2026-09-29T-25 6752 Panasonic watchex-dividend 6752 ex-dividendmed---
2026-09-29T-25 6777 Santec watchex-dividend 6777 ex-dividendmed---
2026-09-29T-25- conference Photonics UK 2026high---
2026-09-29T-25- conference Microelectronics UK 2026high---
2026-09-29T-254021 Nissan Chemical watchex-dividend 4021 ex-dividendmed---
2026-09-29T-254044 Central Glass watchex-dividend 4044 ex-dividendmed---
2026-09-29T-254063 Shin-Etsu Chemical watchex-dividend 4063 ex-dividendmed---
2026-09-29T-254091 Nippon Sanso watchex-dividend 4091 ex-dividendmed---
2026-09-29T-254188 Mitsubishi Chemical watchex-dividend 4188 ex-dividendmed---
2026-09-29T-254901 FUJIFILM watchex-dividend 4901 ex-dividendmed---
2026-09-29T-255384 Fujimi watchex-dividend 5384 ex-dividendmed---
2026-09-29T-255801 Furukawa Electric watchex-dividend 5801 ex-dividendmed---
2026-09-29T-255803 Fujikura watchex-dividend 5803 ex-dividendmed---
2026-09-29T-256146 Disco watchex-dividend 6146 ex-dividendmed---
2026-09-29T-256324 Harmonic Drive Systems watchex-dividend 6324 ex-dividendmed---
2026-09-29T-256504 Fuji Electric watchex-dividend 6504 ex-dividendmed---
2026-09-29T-256525 Kokusai Electric watchex-dividend 6525 ex-dividendmed---
2026-09-29T-256526 Socionext watchex-dividend 6526 ex-dividendmed---
2026-09-29T-256758 Sony watchex-dividend 6758 ex-dividendmed---
2026-09-29T-256806 Hirose Electric watchex-dividend 6806 ex-dividendmed---
2026-09-29T-256807 Japan Aviation watchex-dividend 6807 ex-dividendmed---
2026-09-29T-257729 Tokyo Seimitsu watchex-dividend 7729 ex-dividendmed---
2026-09-29T-257731 Nikon watchex-dividend 7731 ex-dividendmed---
2026-09-29T-257735 SCREEN watchex-dividend 7735 ex-dividendmed---
2026-09-30T-26 CBRS Cerebras Systems shortcatalyst CBRS lock-up early release: 8.9% of eligible securities (tranche 1 of 3, 424B4 Shares Eligible (vi))high---
2026-10-01T-27- conference IEEE International 3D Systems Integration Conference (3DIC 2026)high---
2026-10-01T-27APD Air Products and Chemicals watchex-dividend APD ex-dividendmed---
2026-10-04T-30- conference IEEE Energy Conversion Congress & Expo (ECCE 2026)high---
2026-10-05T-31 AEHR Aehr Test Systems watchearnings Q1 FY27 printVENDOR / med · DISPUTEDno previewnone-
2026-10-09T-35195870 Haesung DS watchearnings Q3 FY26 printVENDOR / lowno previewnone-
2026-10-11T-37- conference International Test Conference (ITC 2026)high---
2026-10-12T-38 2408 Nanya watchearnings Q3 FY26 printVENDOR / low · DISPUTEDno previewreview_FY26Q2_v1 (2026-07-10)-
2026-10-12T-38- conference OCP Global Summit 2026high---
2026-10-13T-39- semicon-event SEMICON West 2026high---
2026-10-13T-39MELE Melexis watchex-dividend MELE ex-dividendmed---
2026-10-14T-40 ASML ASML shortearnings Q3 FY26 printVENDOR / medno previewreview_FY26Q2_v1 (2026-07-18)-
2026-10-14T-40 CBRS Cerebras Systems shortcatalyst CBRS lock-up early release: 8.9% of eligible securities (tranche 2 of 3)high---
2026-10-14T-40- conference 49th International Semiconductor Conference (CAS 2026)high---
2026-10-14T-40042700 Hanmi Semiconductor watchearnings Q3 FY26 printVENDOR / med · DISPUTEDno previewnone-
2026-10-15T-41 2330 TSMC longearnings Q3 FY26 printVENDOR / medno previewreview_FY26Q2_v2 (2026-07-18)-
2026-10-15T-41 6770 Powerchip Semiconductor Mfg watchearnings Q3 FY26 printVENDOR / lowno previewreview_FY26Q2_v1 (2026-07-23)-
2026-10-15T-41- conference PDF Solutions CONNECT: Semiconductor Manufacturing Analytics and AIhigh---
2026-10-15T-41BELFB Bel Fuse watchex-dividend BELFB ex-dividendmed---
2026-10-18T-44- conference 2026 EPEPS Conference: Electrical Performance of Electronics Packaging and Systemshigh---
2026-10-19T-45 603083 CIG watchearnings Q3 FY26 printVENDOR / lowno previewnone-
2026-10-19T-45 TXN Texas Instruments watchearnings Q3 FY26 printVENDOR / med · DISPUTEDno previewreview_FY26Q2_v1 (2026-07-23)-
2026-10-19T-45 VICR Vicor watchearnings Q3 FY26 printVENDOR / med · DISPUTEDno previewreview_FY26Q2_v1 (2026-07-22)-
2026-10-19T-45- conference Global Photonics, Optics and Lasers Conference (GPOLC 2026)high---
2026-10-20T-46 LRCX Lam Research longearnings Q1 FY27 printVENDOR / medno previewreview_FY26Q4_v1 (2026-07-30)-
2026-10-20T-46 ABB ABB watchearnings Q3 FY26 printVENDOR / lowno previewnone-
2026-10-20T-46VRT Vertiv watchearnings Q3 FY26 printVENDOR / med · DISPUTEDno previewnone-
2026-10-21T-47 INTC Intel watchearnings Q3 FY26 printVENDOR / medno previewreview_FY26Q2_v4 (2026-07-25)-
2026-10-21T-47 MXL MaxLinear watchearnings Q3 FY26 printVENDOR / med · DISPUTEDno previewreview_FY26Q2_v1 (2026-07-24)-
2026-10-21T-47- conference Jasper User Group 2026: Cadence Connecthigh---
2026-10-21T-47- conference IEEE ICTA 2026 (Integrated Circuits, Technologies and Applications)high---
2026-10-21T-47688041 Hygon Information watchearnings Q3 FY26 printVENDOR / lowno previewnone-
2026-10-21T-47IBM INTERNATIONAL BUSINESS MACHINES watchearnings Q3 FY26 printVENDOR / medno previewreview_FY26Q2_v1 (2026-07-24)-
2026-10-22T-48 2327 Yageo longearnings Q3 FY26 printVENDOR / med · DISPUTEDno previewreview_FY26Q2_v1 (2026-08-02)-
2026-10-22T-48 TER Teradyne longearnings Q3 FY26 printVENDOR / med · DISPUTEDno previewreview_FY26Q2_v1 (2026-08-02)-
2026-10-22T-48 300502 Eoptolink watchearnings Q3 FY26 printVENDOR / lowno previewnone-
2026-10-22T-48 300548 EverProX watchearnings Q3 FY26 printVENDOR / lowno previewnone-
2026-10-22T-48 300666 Ningbo Jiangfeng Electronic Mat. watchearnings Q3 FY26 printVENDOR / lowno previewnone-
2026-10-22T-48 3443 Global Unichip watchearnings Q3 FY26 printVENDOR / med · DISPUTEDno previewnone-
2026-10-22T-48 3711 ASE watchearnings Q3 FY26 printVENDOR / med · DISPUTEDno previewnone-
2026-10-22T-48 600584 JCET watchearnings Q3 FY26 printVENDOR / lowno previewnone-
2026-10-22T-48 6723 Renesas watchearnings Q3 FY26 printVENDOR / med · DISPUTEDno previewnone-
2026-10-22T-48 BESI BE Semiconductor watchearnings Q3 FY26 printVENDOR / medno previewreview_FY26Q2_v1 (2026-08-04)-
2026-10-22T-48 BESI BE Semiconductor watchwaypoint BESI waypoint [besi-th-003]: Q3'26 print - first up-cycle quarters test whether incremental EBIT margin runs a---
2026-10-22T-48 NOK Nokia watchearnings Q3 FY26 printVENDOR / lowno previewreview_Q2FY26_v1 (2026-08-04)-
2026-10-22T-48 STM STMicroelectronics watchearnings Q3 FY26 printVENDOR / med · DISPUTEDno previewnone-
2026-10-22T-48- conference OktoberTech Silicon Valley 2026high---
2026-10-22T-48002463 Fenghua Advanced watchearnings Q3 FY26 printVENDOR / lowno previewnone-
2026-10-22T-48300408 Chaozhou Three-Circle watchearnings Q3 FY26 printVENDOR / lowno previewnone-
2026-10-22T-48603160 Shenzhen Goodix watchearnings Q3 FY26 printVENDOR / lowno previewnone-
2026-10-22T-48603893 Rockchip watchearnings Q3 FY26 printVENDOR / lowno previewnone-
2026-10-22T-486146 Disco watchearnings Q2 FY27 printVENDOR / medno previewnone-
2026-10-22T-486504 Fuji Electric watchearnings Q2 FY27 printVENDOR / med · DISPUTEDno previewnone-
2026-10-22T-48688052 Novosense Microelectronics watchearnings Q3 FY26 printVENDOR / lowno previewnone-
2026-10-22T-48LIN Linde watchearnings Q3 FY26 printVENDOR / med · DISPUTEDno previewnone-
2026-10-22T-48NBIS Nebius watchearnings Q3 FY26 printVENDOR / med · DISPUTEDno previewnone-
2026-10-23T-49 2454 MediaTek longearnings Q3 FY26 printVENDOR / med · DISPUTEDno previewreview_FY26Q2_v1 (2026-08-02)-
2026-10-23T-49 002185 Tianshui Huatian watchearnings Q3 FY26 printVENDOR / lowno previewnone-
2026-10-23T-49 2441 Greatek watchearnings Q3 FY26 printVENDOR / lowno previewreview_FY26Q2_v3 (2026-08-15)-
2026-10-23T-49 300570 Suzhou T&S Communications watchearnings Q3 FY26 printVENDOR / lowno previewnone-
2026-10-23T-49 688012 AMEC watchearnings Q3 FY26 printVENDOR / lowno previewnone-
2026-10-23T-49 688396 China Resources Microelectronics watchearnings Q3 FY26 printVENDOR / lowno previewnone-
2026-10-23T-49- conference CASPA 35th Annual Conference and Dinner Banquethigh---
2026-10-23T-49002049 Unigroup Guoxin Microelectronics watchearnings Q3 FY26 printVENDOR / lowno previewnone-
2026-10-23T-49002916 Shennan Circuits watchearnings Q3 FY26 printVENDOR / lowno previewnone-
2026-10-23T-494063 Shin-Etsu Chemical watchearnings Q2 FY27 printVENDOR / medno previewnone-
2026-10-23T-49600206 GRINM Advanced Materials watchearnings Q3 FY26 printVENDOR / lowno previewnone-
2026-10-23T-496531 Aspeed watchearnings Q3 FY26 printVENDOR / med · DISPUTEDno previewnone-
2026-10-23T-49688126 National Silicon Industry watchearnings Q3 FY26 printVENDOR / lowno previewnone-
2026-10-26T-52 BE Bloom Energy longearnings Q3 FY26 printVENDOR / medno previewreview_FY26Q2_v1 (2026-08-02)-
2026-10-26T-52 CVLT Commvault Systems shortearnings Q2 FY27 printVENDOR / med · DISPUTEDno previewreview_FY27Q1_v1 (2026-08-02)-
2026-10-26T-52 002281 Accelink watchearnings Q3 FY26 printVENDOR / lowno previewnone-
2026-10-26T-52 002475 Luxshare Precision Industry watchearnings Q3 FY26 printVENDOR / lowno previewnone-
2026-10-26T-52 600460 Hangzhou Silan Microelectronics watchearnings Q3 FY26 printVENDOR / lowno previewnone-
2026-10-26T-52 603290 StarPower Semiconductor watchearnings Q3 FY26 printVENDOR / lowno previewnone-
2026-10-26T-52 603501 Will Semiconductor watchearnings Q3 FY26 printVENDOR / lowno previewnone-
2026-10-26T-52 603986 GigaDevice Semiconductor watchearnings Q3 FY26 printVENDOR / lowno previewnone-
2026-10-26T-52 AMKR Amkor watchearnings Q3 FY26 printVENDOR / med · DISPUTEDno previewreview_FY26Q2_v1 (2026-07-28)-
2026-10-26T-52 CDNS Cadence Design Systems watchearnings Q3 FY26 printVENDOR / medno previewreview_FY26Q2_v1 (2026-07-28)-
2026-10-26T-52 CLS Celestica watchearnings Q3 FY26 printVENDOR / medno previewreview_Q2FY26_v1 (2026-08-09)-
2026-10-26T-52 ESI Element watchearnings Q3 FY26 printVENDOR / medno previewreview_FY26Q2_v1 (2026-07-29)-
2026-10-26T-52 UCTT Ultra Clean watchearnings Q3 FY26 printVENDOR / med · DISPUTEDno previewnone-
2026-10-26T-52- conference 13th IEEE Workshop on Wide Bandgap Power Devices and Applications (WiPDA 2026)high---
2026-10-26T-52000636 Fenghua Advanced watchearnings Q3 FY26 printVENDOR / lowno previewnone-
2026-10-26T-52300373 Yangzhou Yangjie Electronic watchearnings Q3 FY26 printVENDOR / lowno previewnone-
2026-10-26T-52300782 Maxscend Microelectronics watchearnings Q3 FY26 printVENDOR / lowno previewnone-
2026-10-26T-52600745 Wingtech watchearnings Q3 FY26 printVENDOR / lowno previewnone-
2026-10-26T-52688037 KingSemi watchearnings Q3 FY26 printVENDOR / lowno previewnone-
2026-10-26T-52688206 Primarius watchearnings Q3 FY26 printVENDOR / lowno previewnone-
2026-10-26T-52688213 SmartSens watchearnings Q3 FY26 printVENDOR / lowno previewnone-
2026-10-26T-52688256 Cambricon watchearnings Q3 FY26 printVENDOR / lowno previewnone-
2026-10-26T-52688521 VeriSilicon Microelectronics watchearnings Q3 FY26 printVENDOR / lowno previewnone-
2026-10-26T-52688595 3Peak watchearnings Q3 FY26 printVENDOR / lowno previewnone-
2026-10-26T-52CTS CTS watchearnings Q3 FY26 printVENDOR / medno previewreview_FY26Q2_v1 (2026-08-01)-
2026-10-26T-52GLW Corning watchearnings Q3 FY26 printVENDOR / med · DISPUTEDno previewnone-
2026-10-26T-52RMBS Rambus watchearnings Q3 FY26 printVENDOR / med · DISPUTEDno previewreview_FY26Q2_v1 (2026-07-30)-
2026-10-27T-53 6857 Advantest longearnings Q2 FY27 printVENDOR / med · DISPUTEDno previewreview_FY27Q1_v1 (2026-08-02)-
2026-10-27T-53 ASMI ASM International longearnings Q3 FY26 printVENDOR / lowno previewreview_FY26Q2_v1 (2026-08-15)-
2026-10-27T-53 GIL Gildan Activewear longearnings Q3 FY26 printVENDOR / medno previewreview_FY26Q2_v1 (2026-08-15)-
2026-10-27T-53 KLAC KLA longearnings Q1 FY27 printVENDOR / medno previewreview_FY26Q4_v1 (2026-07-29)-
2026-10-27T-53 000660 SK hynix watchearnings Q3 FY26 printVENDOR / medno previewreview_FY26Q2_v2 (2026-08-15)-
2026-10-27T-53 002384 Dongshan Precision watchearnings Q3 FY26 printVENDOR / lowno previewnone-
2026-10-27T-53 011790 SKC watchearnings Q3 FY26 printVENDOR / med · DISPUTEDno previewreview_FY26Q2_v1 (2026-08-03)-
2026-10-27T-53 300394 TFC Optical watchearnings Q3 FY26 printVENDOR / lowno previewnone-
2026-10-27T-53 3037 Unimicron watchearnings Q3 FY26 printVENDOR / medno previewnone-
2026-10-27T-53 3081 LandMark Optoelectronics watchearnings Q3 FY26 printVENDOR / medno previewreview_FY26Q2_v1 (2026-08-15)-
2026-10-27T-53 6239 Powertech watchearnings Q3 FY26 printVENDOR / med · DISPUTEDno previewreview_FY26Q2_v1 (2026-07-31)-
2026-10-27T-53 FORM FormFactor watchearnings Q3 FY26 printVENDOR / med · DISPUTEDno previewnone-
2026-10-27T-53 IFCN Inficon watchearnings Q3 FY26 printVENDOR / lowno previewnone-
2026-10-27T-53 LFUS Littelfuse watchearnings Q3 FY26 printVENDOR / med · DISPUTEDno previewnone-
2026-10-27T-53 META Meta Platforms watchearnings Q3 FY26 printVENDOR / medno previewnone-
2026-10-27T-53 NXPI NXP Semiconductors watchearnings Q3 FY26 printVENDOR / medno previewreview_FY26Q2_v1 (2026-07-29)-
2026-10-27T-53 TEL TE Connectivity watchearnings Q4 FY26 printVENDOR / med · DISPUTEDno previewreview_FY26Q3_v1 (2026-07-23)-
2026-10-27T-53 WOLF Wolfspeed watchearnings Q1 FY27 printVENDOR / med · DISPUTEDno previewreview_FY26Q4_v1 (2026-08-20)-
2026-10-27T-53- conference IEEE International Conference on Physical Assurance and Inspection of Electronics (PAINE)high---
2026-10-27T-532337 Macronix International watchearnings Q3 FY26 printVENDOR / medno previewreview_FY26Q2_v1 (2026-07-28)-
2026-10-27T-53688018 Espressif Systems watchearnings Q3 FY26 printVENDOR / lowno previewnone-
2026-10-27T-53AVT Avnet watchearnings Q1 FY27 printVENDOR / med · DISPUTEDno previewnone-
2026-10-27T-53BELFB Bel Fuse watchearnings Q3 FY26 printVENDOR / medno previewnone-
2026-10-27T-53COHU Cohu watchearnings Q3 FY26 printVENDOR / medno previewreview_FY26Q2_v1 (2026-07-31)-
2026-10-27T-53MSFT Microsoft watchearnings Q1 FY27 printVENDOR / medno previewnone-
2026-10-27T-53TTMI TTM watchearnings Q3 FY26 printVENDOR / med · DISPUTEDno previewnone-
2026-10-28T-54 005930 Samsung shortearnings Q3 FY26 printVENDOR / medno previewreview_FY26Q2_v3 (2026-08-15)-
2026-10-28T-54 CBRS Cerebras Systems shortcatalyst CBRS lock-up early release: 8.9% of eligible securities (tranche 3 of 3)high---
2026-10-28T-54 009150 SEMCO watchearnings Q3 FY26 printVENDOR / medno previewreview_FY26Q2_v1 (2026-08-02)-
2026-10-28T-54 2303 United Microelectronics watchearnings Q3 FY26 printVENDOR / medno previewnone-
2026-10-28T-54 2308 Delta watchearnings Q3 FY26 printVENDOR / med · DISPUTEDno previewnone-
2026-10-28T-54 300308 Zhongji Innolight watchearnings Q3 FY26 printVENDOR / lowno previewnone-
2026-10-28T-54 APH Amphenol watchearnings Q3 FY26 printVENDOR / medno previewreview_FY26Q2_v1 (2026-07-30)-
2026-10-28T-54 ARW Arrow watchearnings Q3 FY26 printVENDOR / medno previewreview_Q2FY26_v1 (2026-08-20)-
2026-10-28T-54 AXTI AXT watchearnings Q3 FY26 printVENDOR / medno previewnone-
2026-10-28T-54 ENTG Entegris watchearnings Q3 FY26 printVENDOR / med · DISPUTEDno previewnone-
2026-10-28T-54 GEV GE Vernova watchearnings Q3 FY26 printVENDOR / medno previewreview_FY26Q2_v1 (2026-07-23)-
2026-10-28T-54 MPWR Monolithic Power Systems watchearnings Q3 FY26 printVENDOR / med · DISPUTEDno previewnone-
2026-10-28T-54011070 LG Innotek watchearnings Q3 FY26 printVENDOR / medno previewnone-
2026-10-28T-542379 Realtek Semiconductor watchearnings Q3 FY26 printVENDOR / med · DISPUTEDno previewnone-
2026-10-28T-546807 Japan Aviation watchearnings Q2 FY27 printVENDOR / med · DISPUTEDno previewnone-
2026-10-28T-54ALGM Allegro MicroSystems watchearnings Q2 FY27 printVENDOR / medno previewnone-
2026-10-28T-54MELE Melexis watchearnings Q3 FY26 printVENDOR / lowno previewnone-
2026-10-28T-54SIMO Silicon Motion watchearnings Q3 FY26 printVENDOR / med · DISPUTEDno previewnone-
2026-10-29T-55 ONTO Onto Innovation longearnings Q3 FY26 printVENDOR / med · DISPUTEDno previewreview_FY26Q2_v1 (2026-08-15)-
2026-10-29T-55 2360 Chroma ATE watchearnings Q3 FY26 printVENDOR / medno previewnone-
2026-10-29T-55 2458 Elan Microelectronics watchearnings Q3 FY26 printVENDOR / med · DISPUTEDno previewnone-
2026-10-29T-55 2492 Walsin watchearnings Q3 FY26 printVENDOR / med · DISPUTEDno previewnone-
2026-10-29T-55 4062 Ibiden watchearnings Q2 FY27 printVENDOR / medno previewnone-
2026-10-29T-55 4991 GCS watchearnings Q3 FY26 printVENDOR / med · DISPUTEDno previewnone-
2026-10-29T-55 6503 Mitsubishi Electric watchearnings Q2 FY27 printVENDOR / medno previewnone-
2026-10-29T-55 6533 Andes watchearnings Q3 FY26 printVENDOR / lowno previewnone-
2026-10-29T-55 6752 Panasonic watchearnings Q2 FY27 printVENDOR / med · DISPUTEDno previewnone-
2026-10-29T-55 688567 Zhejiang Autowell watchearnings Q3 FY26 printVENDOR / lowpreview v1none-
2026-10-29T-55 AIXA AIXTRON watchearnings Q3 FY26 printVENDOR / medno previewnone-
2026-10-29T-55 LASR nLight watchearnings Q3 FY26 printVENDOR / med · DISPUTEDno previewreview_FY26Q2_v1 (2026-08-23)-
2026-10-29T-55 LPKFF LPKF Laser watchearnings Q3 FY26 printVENDOR / lowno previewnone-
2026-10-29T-55 MCHP Microchip watchearnings Q2 FY27 printVENDOR / med · DISPUTEDno previewnone-
2026-10-29T-55 SWKS Skyworks watchearnings Q3 FY26 printVENDOR / med · DISPUTEDpreview v1none-
2026-10-29T-552344 Winbond watchearnings Q3 FY26 printVENDOR / med · DISPUTEDno previewnone-
2026-10-29T-553006 Etron watchearnings Q3 FY26 printVENDOR / med · DISPUTEDno previewnone-
2026-10-29T-553189 Kinsus Interconnect watchearnings Q3 FY26 printVENDOR / med · DISPUTEDno previewnone-
2026-10-29T-554091 Nippon Sanso watchearnings Q2 FY27 printVENDOR / med · DISPUTEDno previewnone-
2026-10-29T-554188 Mitsubishi Chemical watchearnings Q2 FY27 printVENDOR / medno previewnone-
2026-10-29T-555384 Fujimi watchearnings Q2 FY27 printVENDOR / med · DISPUTEDno previewnone-
2026-10-29T-55600378 Haohua Chemical watchearnings Q3 FY26 printVENDOR / lowno previewnone-
2026-10-29T-556526 Socionext watchearnings Q2 FY27 printVENDOR / medno previewnone-
2026-10-29T-55688120 Hwatsing watchearnings Q3 FY26 printVENDOR / lowno previewnone-
2026-10-29T-55688728 GalaxyCore watchearnings Q3 FY26 printVENDOR / lowno previewnone-
2026-10-29T-556920 Lasertec watchearnings Q1 FY27 printVENDOR / med · DISPUTEDno previewnone-
2026-10-29T-557735 SCREEN watchearnings Q2 FY27 printVENDOR / medno previewnone-
2026-10-29T-558016 Sitronix watchearnings Q3 FY26 printVENDOR / lowno previewnone-
2026-10-29T-55XFAB X-FAB Silicon Foundries watchearnings Q3 FY26 printVENDOR / lowno previewnone-
2026-10-30T-56 2327 Yageo longwaypoint 2327 waypoint [2327-th-001]: Q3 CY26 print - tantalum revenue/share and resistor pricing/UTR sustain, confirmi---
2026-10-30T-56 2327 Yageo longwaypoint 2327 waypoint [2327-th-002]: Q3 CY26 print - book-to-bill stays >1x with NO double-ordering and no new commodi---
2026-10-30T-56 2327 Yageo longwaypoint 2327 waypoint [2327-th-003]: Q3 CY26 print - first test of whether the 1-Jul commodity hike broadens/holds acr---
2026-10-30T-56 5536 Acter longearnings Q3 FY26 printVENDOR / med · DISPUTEDno previewreview_FY26Q2_v1 (2026-08-11)-
2026-10-30T-56 6762 TDK shortearnings Q2 FY27 printVENDOR / medno previewreview_FY27Q1_v1 (2026-08-02)-
2026-10-30T-56 6981 Murata longearnings Q2 FY27 printVENDOR / medpreview v1review_FY27Q1_v2 (2026-08-18)-
2026-10-30T-56 8035 Tokyo Electron longearnings Q2 FY27 printVENDOR / med · DISPUTEDno previewreview_Q1FY27_v1 (2026-08-15)-
2026-10-30T-56 8035 Tokyo Electron longwaypoint 8035 waypoint [8035-th-001]: H1 FY3/27 print: new-equipment sales tracking the guided ~+41% YoY; the street li---
2026-10-30T-56 8035 Tokyo Electron longwaypoint 8035 waypoint [8035-th-002]: H1 FY3/27 print: gross margin inflects above ~46% (the UBS/GS "2H FY3/27 inflecti---
2026-10-30T-56 285A Kioxia watchearnings Q2 FY27 printVENDOR / med · DISPUTEDno previewreview_FY27Q1_v2 (2026-08-20)-
2026-10-30T-56 3227 PixArt Imaging watchearnings Q3 FY26 printVENDOR / medno previewreview_FY26Q2_v1 (2026-08-11)-
2026-10-30T-56 3661 Alchip watchearnings Q3 FY26 printVENDOR / med · DISPUTEDno previewreview_FY26Q2_v1 (2026-08-15)-
2026-10-30T-56 5802 Sumitomo Electric watchearnings Q2 FY27 printVENDOR / medno previewnone-
2026-10-30T-56 QCOM QUALCOMM watchearnings Q4 FY26 printVENDOR / med · DISPUTEDno previewreview_FY26Q3_v1 (2026-08-01)-
2026-10-30T-56 RBLX Roblox watchearnings Q3 FY26 printVENDOR / lowno previewnone-
2026-10-30T-56 XNDU Xanadu Quantum watchearnings Q3 FY26 printVENDOR / med · DISPUTEDno previewnone-
2026-10-30T-562449 King Yuan watchearnings Q3 FY26 printVENDOR / med · DISPUTEDno previewnone-
2026-10-30T-563036 WT Microelectronics watchearnings Q3 FY26 printVENDOR / lowno previewnone-
2026-10-30T-566707 Sanken Electric watchearnings Q2 FY27 printVENDOR / med · DISPUTEDno previewnone-
2026-10-31T-57- conference MICRO 2026: IEEE/ACM International Symposium on Microarchitecturehigh---
2026-11-02T-59 AMD Advanced Micro Devices longearnings Q3 FY26 printVENDOR / medno previewreview_FY26Q2_v2 (2026-08-06)-
2026-11-02T-59 LITE Lumentum longearnings Q1 FY27 printVENDOR / med · DISPUTEDno previewreview_FY26Q4_v2 (2026-08-16)-
2026-11-02T-59 AEIS Advanced Energy watchearnings Q3 FY26 printVENDOR / medno previewnone-
2026-11-02T-59 ALAB Astera Labs watchearnings Q3 FY26 printVENDOR / med · DISPUTEDno previewnone-
2026-11-02T-59 ETN Eaton watchearnings Q3 FY26 printVENDOR / medno previewnone-
2026-11-02T-59 FN Fabrinet watchearnings Q1 FY27 printVENDOR / med · DISPUTEDno previewreview_FY26Q4_v1 (2026-08-18)-
2026-11-02T-59 LSCC Lattice Semiconductor watchearnings Q3 FY27 printVENDOR / medno previewnone-
2026-11-02T-59 NVTS Navitas Semiconductor watchearnings Q3 FY26 printVENDOR / med · DISPUTEDno previewreview_FY26Q2_v1 (2026-07-29)-
2026-11-02T-59 ONSEMI ON Semiconductor watchearnings Q3 FY26 printVENDOR / medno previewnone-
2026-11-02T-596202 Holtek Semiconductor watchearnings Q3 FY26 printVENDOR / low · DISPUTEDno previewnone-
2026-11-02T-59ACLS Axcelis watchearnings Q3 FY26 printVENDOR / medno previewnone-
2026-11-02T-59ALM Almonty watchearnings Q3 FY26 printVENDOR / med · DISPUTEDno previewnone-
2026-11-02T-59CRUS Cirrus Logic watchearnings Q2 FY27 printVENDOR / medno previewnone-
2026-11-02T-59QRVO Qorvo watchearnings Q2 FY27 printVENDOR / med · DISPUTEDno previewnone-
2026-11-02T-59SLAB Silicon Laboratories watchearnings Q3 FY27 printVENDOR / medno previewnone-
2026-11-03T-60 0522 ASMPT longearnings Q3 FY26 printVENDOR / lowno previewreview_FY26H1_v1 (2026-08-02)-
2026-11-03T-60 MKSI MKS longearnings Q3 FY26 printVENDOR / medno previewreview_FY26Q2_v1 (2026-08-15)-
2026-11-03T-60 AOSL Alpha and Omega Semiconductor watchearnings Q1 FY27 printVENDOR / med · DISPUTEDno previewreview_FY26Q4_v2 (2026-08-24)-
2026-11-03T-60 COHR Coherent watchearnings Q1 FY27 printVENDOR / med · DISPUTEDno previewreview_FY26Q4_v1 (2026-08-24)-
2026-11-03T-60 ICHR Ichor watchearnings Q3 FY26 printVENDOR / med · DISPUTEDno previewnone-
2026-11-03T-60 IPGP IPG Photonics watchearnings Q3 FY26 printVENDOR / medno previewnone-
2026-11-03T-60 POWI Power Integrations watchearnings Q3 FY26 printVENDOR / med · DISPUTEDno previewnone-
2026-11-03T-60 SITM SiTime watchearnings Q3 FY26 printVENDOR / medno previewnone-
2026-11-03T-60 VECO Veeco Instruments watchearnings Q3 FY26 printVENDOR / med · DISPUTEDno previewnone-
2026-11-03T-60002138 Shenzhen Sunlord watchearnings Q3 FY26 printVENDOR / lowno previewnone-
2026-11-03T-60002156 Tongfu Microelectronics watchearnings Q3 FY26 printVENDOR / lowno previewnone-
2026-11-03T-604044 Central Glass watchearnings Q2 FY27 printVENDOR / med · DISPUTEDno previewnone-
2026-11-03T-60688503 Jiangsu Nata Opto-electronic watchearnings Q3 FY26 printVENDOR / lowno previewnone-
2026-11-03T-60ACMR ACM Research watchearnings Q3 FY26 printVENDOR / med · DISPUTEDno previewnone-
2026-11-03T-60IONQ IonQ watchearnings Q3 FY26 printVENDOR / med · DISPUTEDno previewnone-
2026-11-03T-60VSH Vishay Intertechnology watchearnings Q3 FY26 printVENDOR / med · DISPUTEDno previewnone-
What moved overnight
03

High impact news flow - last 7 days

High-signal news with book impact, last 7 days - web feeds + broker desk in one stream. Direction and relevance are Claude's triage labels, never a score; verify at the source before acting.

Whitelisted web feeds (/pull-news) + broker desk mail in one stream, grouped by book relevance - positions first, then edge-adjacent names, then sub-sector tilts. Impact = near-term price of products/services, supply, capital, demand, or a management announcement. Labels are Claude's triage; judgment re-derives fresh in /read-through.

feed as of 2026-09-04 07:30 SGT 862 untriaged ! triage frontier 2026-08-25 · 905 queued
feed health: 33 enabled · 0 quiet · 1 no-items · 9 not connected no items Yole Group
650 Group 2026-09-01 · 4 item(s)
BIS (Commerce) via Federal Register 2026-08-28 · 11 item(s)
Bits&Chips 2026-09-02 · 46 item(s)
Bloomberg (tech headlines via Google News) 2026-09-04 · 787 item(s)
Blue Orca Capital - · 0 item(s)
Citron Research - · 0 item(s)
Counterpoint Research 2026-08-26 · 19 item(s)
Dell'Oro Group 2026-08-27 · 7 item(s)
DigiTimes 2026-09-03 · 2416 item(s)
EE Times 2026-09-04 · 168 item(s)
EE Times Japan (ITmedia) 2026-09-03 · 217 item(s)
Electronics Weekly 2026-09-03 · 400 item(s)
ETNews 전자신문 2026-09-04 · 1638 item(s)
Grizzly Research - · 0 item(s)
Korea Economic Daily Global 2026-09-03 · 37 item(s)
Muddy Waters Research - · 0 item(s)
The Next Platform 2026-09-04 · 60 item(s)
r/hardware (top of day) 2026-09-04 · 406 item(s)
Reuters (tech headlines via Google News) 2026-09-04 · 839 item(s)
SCMP Tech 2026-09-04 · 362 item(s)
Semiconductor Engineering 2026-09-03 · 193 item(s)
SemiWiki 2026-09-04 · 136 item(s)
ServeTheHome 2026-09-04 · 81 item(s)
TechNews 科技新報 2026-09-04 · 2185 item(s)
TechNode 2026-09-03 · 316 item(s)
TheElec (English) 2026-09-04 · 1138 item(s)
The Register 2026-09-04 · 253 item(s)
Tom's Hardware 2026-09-04 · 926 item(s)
TrendForce press center 2026-09-03 · 105 item(s)
經濟日報 (UDN Money) tech 2026-09-04 · 1699 item(s)
USTR press releases 2026-09-02 · 39 item(s)
Wccftech (via Google News) 2026-09-04 · 363 item(s)
Yole Group - · 0 item(s)
Key flow - top 15 most impactful (last 7d, by book relevance x magnitude; grouped by subsector)
Memory / HBM
· theme:AI-Compute theme:HBM theme:DC-Power New frontier model family with claimed lower token cost alongside performance gains - the cost curve that sets compute pull · T2 TheElec (English)
005930- 000660- theme:Memory Korean utility seeks large advance payments from Samsung and SK hynix to fund grid buildout, a direct cash claim on memory capex · T3 DigiTimes NEW
AI / Compute
theme:AI-Compute+ theme:AI-ASIC+ Google compressing its TPU release cadence pulls custom-accelerator design, packaging and test demand forward · T3 Electronics Weekly NEW
· theme:AI-Compute Meta open-sources a 30B agent model that runs on a laptop - on-device frontier step, compute-demand read · T3 SemiWiki
· AMD Unverified forum chatter on next-gen AMD GPU clock targets - roadmap colour only, no order or pricing content · T3 r/hardware (top of day) NEW
SPE / WFE
ASML+ theme:WFE+ A supplier in the litho chain puts China far behind on top chipmaking tools - same story as the UBS read, different voice · T3 Bloomberg (tech headlines via Google News) NEW
Optics / Connectivity
AVGO+ theme:AI-ASIC+ theme:DC-Power+ theme:Optics+ Broadcom puts a multi-year gigawatt and dollar figure on booked custom AI silicon through FY2028, the backlog behind the ASIC thesis · T3 DigiTimes NEW
Consumer Electronics
· 005930 theme:Consumer Samsung sets a domestic launch date and price for the Galaxy S26 FE - handset SKU news, immaterial to memory or foundry · T2 TheElec (English) NEW
Passives / MLCC
6981+ 6976+ 6762+ theme:MLCC+ Japanese capacitor shipments rose 22% in 1H26 on AI server demand · T3 DigiTimes NEW
Advanced Packaging
2330+ theme:AdvPackaging+ TSMC management says AI compute demand will grow more than fivefold a year, pushing advanced logic, 3DFabric, SoIC, CoWoS and silicon photonics · T3 經濟日報 (UDN Money) tech NEW
Foundry
2330+ Orsted completes a 920MW offshore wind farm dedicated to supplying TSMC green power · T3 經濟日報 (UDN Money) tech NEW
DC Power / Electrification
· IFX theme:DC-Power Infineon frames AI data centers and physical AI as its growth drivers - qualitative mix guidance, no numbers attached · T3 DigiTimes NEW
Other
· 3036 WT Microelectronics raises about USD935M via GDR and ECB - war chest for the distribution business · T3 經濟日報 (UDN Money) tech NEW
Analog / Power Semis
6723+ TIER IV and Renesas develop an autonomous-driving mass-production solution - auto-silicon design collaboration · T2 TechNews 科技新報 NEW
China Semis
· theme:ChinaSemis ASML+ Analyst claims China's EUV is roughly at ASML's 2004 stage and still well behind Western rivals · T3 r/hardware (top of day)
AI / Compute 168▲ 18▼ 141· Memory / HBM 55▲ 13▼ 59· Foundry 53▲ 9▼ 44· Advanced Packaging 32▲ 6▼ 36· Consumer Electronics 35▲ 10▼ 25· Optics / Connectivity 37▲ 1▼ 25· Other 33▲ 1▼ 28· China Semis 13▲ 5▼ 37· DC Power / Electrification 25▲ 2▼ 25· SPE / WFE 30▲ 22· Analog / Power Semis 12▲ 2▼ 19· Semi Materials 10▲ 2▼ 16· Passives / MLCC 9▲ 1▼
allpositionsEUGLOBALJPKRTWUS80 item(s)
POSITIONS
positioning · other · T3 Bloomberg (tech headlines via Google News) headline-only · NEW
why: A supplier in the litho chain puts China far behind on top chipmaking tools - same story as the UBS read, different voice · via unnamed ASML supplier via Bloomberg
capital · other · T3 Bloomberg (tech headlines via Google News) headline-only · NEW
why: A grid-financing call on Samsung and SK hynix is a direct cash claim on memory capex budgets and Korean fab power cost
demand · guidance · T3 Bloomberg (tech headlines via Google News) headline-only · NEW
why: Broadcom guides to surging AI chip sales over the next two years - sustained custom-silicon demand · via Broadcom (company-disclosed) 2026-09-02
demand · capacity_add · T3 DigiTimes headline-only · NEW
why: TSMC adding equipment purchases as AI demand outruns supply-chain planning - direct read on the WFE order cycle · via DigiTimes 2026-09-03
·
mgmt-announcement · other · T3 DigiTimes headline-only · NEW
why: Infineon frames AI data centers and physical AI as its growth drivers - qualitative mix guidance, no numbers attached · via company-disclosed via DigiTimes 2026-09-03
·
2026-09-03 AVGO theme:Optics theme:Connectivity Broadcom says CPO fits scale-out better than scale-up
mgmt-announcement · other · T3 DigiTimes headline-only · NEW
why: Broadcom positions CPO for scale-out rather than scale-up - shapes where co-packaged optics displaces pluggables and copper · via company-disclosed via DigiTimes 2026-09-03
2026-09-03 005930 theme:WFE+ theme:AdvPackaging+ Samsung to add 1,612 new equipment units at Vietnam chip plant
capital · capacity_add · T3 DigiTimes headline-only · NEW
why: Samsung adding a large block of new equipment units at its Vietnam chip plant - a concrete tool-order pull for back-end WFE · via DigiTimes 2026-09-03
2026-09-03 AVGO+ theme:AI-ASIC+ theme:DC-Power+ theme:Optics+ 2330+ Broadcom puts 30GW, US$350 billion of custom AI silicon on the calendar through fiscal 2028
demand · order_win · T3 DigiTimes headline-only · NEW
why: Broadcom puts a multi-year gigawatt and dollar figure on booked custom AI silicon through FY2028, the backlog behind the ASIC thesis · via company-disclosed 2026-09-03
·
mgmt-announcement · other · T3 DigiTimes headline-only · NEW
why: MediaTek CEO commentary on Taiwan supply-chain positioning - tone only, no order, price or capacity content · via company-disclosed via DigiTimes 2026-09-03
·
policy-reg · reg_action · T3 DigiTimes headline-only · NEW
why: Samsung DRAM trade-secret case exposes a CXMT Hefei project, a read on how fast China DRAM is closing the technology gap · via Korean court filings via DigiTimes 2026-09-03
2026-09-03 005930- 000660- theme:Memory KEPCO seeks US$18 billion from Samsung, SK Hynix to fund Korea's power grid
capital · other · T3 DigiTimes headline-only · NEW
why: Korean utility seeks large advance payments from Samsung and SK hynix to fund grid buildout, a direct cash claim on memory capex · via Korean press via DigiTimes 2026-09-03
·
2026-09-03 IFX theme:DC-Power+ Skeleton and Infineon hook up on SSTs
mgmt-announcement · other · T3 Electronics Weekly
why: Infineon MoU with a supercapacitor specialist targets datacentre power resilience - an option on the DC power content build · via company-disclosed
2026-09-03 2330+ theme:WFE+ AMAT+ LRCX+ KLAC+ 8035+ TSMC 장비 조달 수요, 반년 만에 1.9배 늘어…“팹 20개 동시에 지어도 부족”
demand · capacity_add · T2 ETNews 전자신문 · NEW
why: TSMC says its equipment procurement need was raised twice this year versus the year-end base, a direct WFE order-slope datapoint · via company-disclosed (SEMICON Taiwan 2026 panel, 2026-09-02)
·
demand · other · T2 The Next Platform · NEW
why: Optics, not custom silicon, is still the bigger driver of Marvell's AI revenue - mix read on the custom-ASIC thesis · via The Next Platform 2026-09-02 (original)
demand · order_win · T3 r/hardware (top of day) · NEW
why: AMD RDNA 5 GPU IP ships inside a Samsung 2nm SoC - IP win for AMD and a foundry win for Samsung · via Notebookcheck via reddit - origin unclear
·
mgmt-announcement · other · T3 r/hardware (top of day) · NEW
why: Samsung HBM5 roadmap tease sets the next-gen bandwidth bar - a roadmap claim, not shipped capacity or a qualification · via company-disclosed
demand · guidance · T3 r/hardware (top of day) · NEW
why: Broadcom reports Q3 FY26 results and dividend - AI chip outlook is the key read for the book · via Broadcom (company-disclosed) 2026-09-02
·
demand · other · T3 r/hardware (top of day) · NEW
why: Unverified forum chatter on next-gen AMD GPU clock targets - roadmap colour only, no order or pricing content · via AnandTech forum leaker via Reddit 2026-09-03 [UNVERIFIED - forum-only]
2026-09-03 AVGO- theme:AI-ASIC theme:Connectivity Broadcom miss: A cyclical slowdown for networking and AI co-processors?
demand · guidance · T3 r/hardware (top of day) · NEW
why: Held AVGO print framed as a miss, raising whether the custom-silicon and DC networking demand cycle is cresting · via company-disclosed via forum commentary
capital · other · T3 Reuters (tech headlines via Google News) headline-only · NEW
why: Same KEPCO story from the wire side - Samsung asked to prepay for power, a cash-flow and power-cost claim on Korean fabs · via Korean press via Reuters 2026-09-03
·
mgmt-announcement · other · T2 TechNews 科技新報 · NEW
why: Applied Materials details CPO thermal and component-shift challenges at Semicon Taiwan - difficulty that favours tool intensity · via company-disclosed, Semicon Taiwan seminar 2026-09-03
policy-reg · reg_action · T2 TechNews 科技新報 · NEW
why: KEPCO plans to demand five years of electricity charges prepaid from Samsung and SK hynix - a working-capital and cost hit · via Korean media report via TechNews 2026-09-03
·
2026-09-03 005930 theme:Consumer Samsung to Launch Galaxy S26 FE in Korea on Sept. 4
mgmt-announcement · other · T2 TheElec (English) · NEW
why: Samsung sets a domestic launch date and price for the Galaxy S26 FE - handset SKU news, immaterial to memory or foundry · via company-disclosed 2026-09-03
capital · capacity_add · T3 Tom's Hardware · NEW
why: TSMC tool requirements said to have nearly doubled while capex rose far less - implies tool shortage and a stretched queue · via Tom's Hardware 2026-09-03, underlying source not named
demand · capacity_add · T2 TrendForce press center headline-only · NEW
why: A step-up in TSMC tool demand with substrate capacity squeezed - the WFE order slope and the packaging bottleneck in one · via TrendForce 2026-09-03
demand · other · T3 經濟日報 (UDN Money) tech · NEW
why: TSMC says AI equipment orders nearly doubled in six months and ~20 simultaneous fabs still cannot meet demand · via TSMC SVP via UDN 2026-09-02 (company-disclosed)
·
mgmt-announcement · other · T3 經濟日報 (UDN Money) tech · NEW
why: TSMC exec says the ecosystem is not ready for ten more fabs - flags supply-chain and IP constraints · via TSMC SVP Y.J. Hou via UDN 2026-09-02
capital · other · T3 經濟日報 (UDN Money) tech · NEW
why: MediaTek CEO frames the US$3.9bn ECB drawing Nvidia and Alphabet funding as AI-industry confidence in the name · via MediaTek (Rick Tsai) 2026-09-02
demand · other · T3 經濟日報 (UDN Money) tech · NEW
why: MediaTek CEO pleads for more foundry capacity in the AI era - signals strong demand and tight supply · via MediaTek CEO Rick Tsai via UDN 2026-09-02
positioning · other · T3 Wccftech (via Google News) headline-only · NEW
why: UBS puts China EUV progress well behind ASML - a read on the durability of the litho monopoly, not a near-term number · via UBS via Wccftech
supply · capacity_add · T3 DigiTimes headline-only · seen 1d
why: TSMC moves into Baipu Industrial Park, boosting advanced-packaging capacity · via company-disclosed
·
mgmt-announcement · other · T3 DigiTimes headline-only · seen 1d
why: TSMC says Europe chip strategy shifting from plans to demand creation - strategic posture, no numbers · via company-disclosed
·
policy-reg · other · T3 DigiTimes headline-only · seen 1d
why: TSMC says European chip ambitions hinge on more than subsidies · via TSMC via DigiTimes 2026-09-02 (company-disclosed)
·
mgmt-announcement · other · T3 DigiTimes headline-only · seen 1d
why: Lam Research exec calls automated preventive maintenance key to the fabs of the future · via Lam Research via DigiTimes 2026-09-02 (company-disclosed)
demand · other · T3 DigiTimes headline-only · seen 1d
why: Marvell sees silicon photonics scaling from late 2027 with Taiwan and TSMC at the center · via Marvell via DigiTimes 2026-09-02 (company-disclosed)
2026-09-02 MRVL+ theme:AI-ASIC+ GoogleとMarvellの提携に見る「AIアーキテクチャ」の変化
demand · order_win · T2 EE Times Japan (ITmedia) · seen 1d
why: Google-Marvell custom-silicon deal signals a shift in AI architecture toward custom compute · via EE Times Japan 2026-09-02
·
mgmt-announcement · other · T3 Electronics Weekly · seen 1d
why: Arm shareholders vote Sept 9 on CEO pay package amid advisory-group opposition - governance, low materiality
demand · order_win · T2 ETNews 전자신문 · seen 1d
why: Hanmi Semiconductor's 2.5D packaging bonders pass a Taiwan foundry's mass-production qual - first Korean placement · via industry sources via etnews
capital · other · T3 ServeTheHome · NEW
why: NVIDIA subscribed USD3.5bn of MediaTek convertible bonds and MediaTek adopts NVLink Fusion for custom accelerators · via company-disclosed (NVIDIA/MediaTek)
·
supply · other · T2 TechNews 科技新報 · seen 1d
why: TSMC exec flags two AI-capacity challenges; Unimicron cites IC substrate as the breakthrough bottleneck · via company-disclosed
·
demand · other · T2 TechNews 科技新報 · seen 1d
why: Broadcom pitches Ethernet as best AI-infra fabric and details CPO light-source packaging vs optical-interconnect routes · via company-disclosed
·
demand · other · T2 TechNews 科技新報 · seen 1d
why: TSMC exec Y.C. Hou flags endless AI demand plus global fab-buildout and supply-chain challenges at SEMICON · via company-disclosed
·
mgmt-announcement · other · T2 TechNews 科技新報 · seen 1d
why: Broadcom software chief says Arm servers are 3+ years from enterprise share, VMware need not rush support · via company-disclosed
·
capital · order_win · T2 TheElec (English) · seen 1d
why: EcoPro HN wins a 93.6bn won abatement order for Micron Singapore fab - MU fab-buildout capex signal · via company-disclosed
capital · other · T2 TheElec (English) · seen 1d
why: Nvidia buys ~4.8tn won of MediaTek CBs - largest ex-US investment, deepens AI infrastructure cooperation · via company-disclosed
·
mgmt-announcement · other · T3 The Register · seen 1d
why: Broadcom software chief says Arm in the enterprise is at least three years away and RISC-V nowhere · via Broadcom exec via The Register 2026-09-02
·
mgmt-announcement · other · T3 經濟日報 (UDN Money) tech · seen 1d
why: New TEL Taiwan president sets people-first, next-door strategy and pledges continued Taiwan investment · via company-disclosed
positioning · price_move · T3 Bloomberg (tech headlines via Google News) headline-only · NEW
why: MediaTek shares jump 10% on the Nvidia investment
supply · other · T3 Bloomberg (tech headlines via Google News) headline-only · seen 1d
why: UBS argues China is unlikely to match ASML leading-edge litho within the next decade · via UBS via Bloomberg 2026-09-01
2026-09-01 005930+ theme:Memory+ theme:HBM+ Samsung locks 70% of memory output as HBM spot prices soar
supply · supply_disruption · T3 DigiTimes headline-only · NEW
why: Samsung locks 70% of memory output as HBM spot prices soar - available supply is being withdrawn
demand · other · T3 DigiTimes headline-only · NEW
why: Japanese capacitor shipments rose 22% in 1H26 on AI server demand
demand · qualification · T3 DigiTimes headline-only · NEW
why: ASML says High NA EUV has reached its first high-volume logic product · via company-disclosed
demand · other · T3 DigiTimes headline-only · NEW
why: Nvidia and MediaTek link AI technologies to accelerate custom data centre chip adoption · via company-disclosed
·
mgmt-announcement · other · T3 DigiTimes headline-only · NEW
why: XCENA and Samsung demo rack-scale CXL memory on Intel Xeon 6 - a DRAM-attach demand vector · via company-disclosed
·
mgmt-announcement · other · T3 DigiTimes headline-only · NEW
why: Samsung reported to be weighing HBM4 bonuses as memory and foundry teams align - internal signal only
capital · capacity_add · T3 DigiTimes headline-only · NEW
why: Taiwan clears Lam Research NT$9.8bn subsidiary injection as the etch leader scales R&D worldwide
mgmt-announcement · other · T3 DigiTimes headline-only · NEW
why: Marvell CTO says power and density bottlenecks are pulling CPO into AI data centers · via company-disclosed
2026-09-01 2330 theme:AdvPackaging TSMC delays CoWoS orders as CoPoS plans take shape
supply · supply_disruption · T3 DigiTimes headline-only · NEW
why: TSMC reportedly delays CoWoS orders as CoPoS panel-level packaging plans take shape
supply · capacity_add · T3 DigiTimes headline-only · NEW
why: Micron opens its Tainan plant in 6.5 months despite the labor dispute
capital · other · T3 DigiTimes headline-only · NEW
why: Nvidia investment in MediaTek read as a broader push to shape AI infrastructure and custom silicon
mgmt-announcement · other · T3 DigiTimes headline-only · NEW
why: Samsung targets early-2027 LPDDR5X-PIM production, claiming a 3.8x performance gain · via company-disclosed
·
2026-09-01 005930 NVDA theme:HBM Samsung is said to develop 8-layer HBM4E for Nvidia's NVHBM push
supply · qualification · T3 DigiTimes headline-only · NEW
why: Samsung said to be developing 8-layer HBM4E for Nvidia NVHBM - a share-recapture attempt, unconfirmed
supply · capacity_add · T3 DigiTimes headline-only · NEW
why: TSMC backs a Skytech advanced-process lab, localising Taiwan front-end equipment supply · via company-disclosed
·
mgmt-announcement · other · T2 EE Times Japan (ITmedia) · NEW
why: AMD briefs on its physical-AI strategy and the newly announced X100 high-end embedded processor · via company-disclosed
2026-09-01 2454+ NVDA+ Nvidia puts $3.5bn into MediaTek
capital · other · T3 Electronics Weekly · NEW
why: Nvidia buys USD3.5bn of MediaTek convertible bonds with a mutual product-adoption commitment · via company-disclosed
·
positioning · price_move · T2 ETNews 전자신문 · NEW
why: KOSPI opens down as US-Iran strikes resume; Samsung Electronics off about 1%, SK hynix marginally higher
mgmt-announcement · other · T2 ETNews 전자신문 · NEW
why: Samsung targets HBM5 at 2x HBM4E performance and zHBM at 8x, per its SEMICON Taiwan keynote · via company-disclosed
capital · other · T3 r/hardware (top of day) · NEW
why: Nvidia invests US$3.5bn in MediaTek and partners on NVLink Fusion
·
mgmt-announcement · other · T3 r/hardware (top of day) · NEW
why: Samsung reportedly developing an 8-layer HBM4E custom for Nvidia at up to 18Gbps
·
supply · supply_disruption · T3 Reuters (tech headlines via Google News) headline-only · seen 2d
why: Micron Taiwan unions threaten to strike over a bonus dispute - back-end DRAM output at risk
demand · order_win · T2 TechNews 科技新報 · NEW
why: Microsoft second-generation Maia 200 is built on TSMC 3nm - hyperscaler custom silicon keeps feeding N3 · via company-disclosed (Microsoft) via TechNews
·
mgmt-announcement · other · T2 TechNews 科技新報 · seen 1d
why: Samsung outlined a CUBE memory strategy with zNAND-O samples in 2028 and zHBM commercialisation ambitions · via company-disclosed (Samsung VP, SEMICON Taiwan)
mgmt-announcement · other · T2 TechNews 科技新報 · seen 1d
why: TSMC frames scaling as system-level integration rather than SoC shrink at SEMICON Taiwan · via company-disclosed (TSMC, SEMICON Taiwan 2026)
2026-09-01 6981+ 6976+ 6762+ theme:MLCC+ theme:Passives+ 被動元件旺、日廠電子零件出貨猛 電容破紀錄
demand · other · T2 TechNews 科技新報 · NEW
why: Japanese electronic component shipments rise for a tenth straight month with capacitors at a record, on passive component demand
·
mgmt-announcement · other · T2 TechNews 科技新報 · NEW
why: TSMC COO frames overseas fab challenges at the EU forum and pitches the science-park model · via company-disclosed
·
supply · supply_disruption · T2 TechNews 科技新報 · seen 2d
why: Micron Taiwan says it will announce a record bonus in October as the union weighs a strike · via company-disclosed
capital · other · T2 TechNews 科技新報 · NEW
why: Huang and Tsai detail the US$3.5bn investment and the scope of the expanded Nvidia-MediaTek partnership · via company-disclosed
capital · other · T2 TechNews 科技新報 · NEW
why: Nvidia takes US$3.5bn of MediaTek ECB; Citi and Morgan Stanley both raise targets on the deepened tie-up
2026-09-01 005930+ 000660+ MU+ theme:Memory+ theme:HBM+ 三星傳 70% 記憶體產能鎖長約到 2031 年 輝達拿不夠
supply · supply_disruption · T2 TechNews 科技新報 · NEW
why: Samsung reportedly locks about 70% of memory output in long-term contracts to 2031 as HBM spot soars
demand · order_win · T2 TechNews 科技新報 · NEW
why: Nvidia-MediaTek RTX Spark platform sold out pre-launch; Asus and MSI chasing additional allocation

466 older item(s) beyond the render cap - query via: python scripts/news_triage_store.py report --days 7 · not connected: caixin-global, heise, ijiwei, jcapital, kerrisdale, nikkei-asia, sprucepoint, viceroy, yicai-global (see Data\News\sources.yaml notes) · X/Twitter: not connected (walled platform - never scraped); KOL signal arrives via their blogs here + Substacks via /pull-substack

What it means for the models
04

Model implications - EPS & multiple chain

Claude's judgment layer: what the last month of flow means for each subsector's EPS chain and multiple chain, with per-company mechanism rows behind each card. Every row cites its stores; direction + mechanism only, never a price target. Regenerated by /implications.

Claude's judgment layer distilling the last 30 days of triaged flow, evidence ledgers, desk color and industry models into per-subsector direction on the EPS chain (revenue x margins / shares-BVPS) and the multiple chain (sentiment, peer co-movement, terminal / exit-multiple regime). Every row cites its stores; direction and mechanism only - never a price target.

generated 2026-09-02T02:28 · 2d old 30d window · claude judgment · direction + mechanism only, never a price target · news cites resolve to the same triage store as section 03
Memory / HBM228▲ 46▼ 347·
Every maker's revision slope decelerated while ASP news stayed euphoric - the higher-probability read is that price is now locked into LTAs and the live variable is content per box.
Δ vs prior: Same slope-and-multiple setup, but the risk has moved: LTAs now lock the price leg (Samsung 70% to 2031) and the live variable is content per box, not ASP.
EPS chain
Revenue
DRAM contract price still runs ahead of the street: UBS lifts 3Q26 ASP to +23% QoQ vs VA consensus +18%, and Samsung has locked ~70% of output to 2031.0-1Qevidence:005930:005930-ev-0393 TechNews 科技新報 2026-09-01 industry:memory:DRAM ASP (USD/Gb)
Content per box is the live risk: Rubin Ultra tests a lower memory config and hyperscalers cut density 192GB to 96GB rather than pay - units over bits.1-2QTechNews 科技新報 2026-08-29 exposure:000660:000660-elast-023
SK hynix guides shortage through 2030 and UBS models DRAM bit consumption +40% YoY 2027E vs +21% 2026E - the up-cycle carries a second leg.1Y+Reuters (tech headlines via Google News) 2026-08-28 evidence:005930:005930-ev-0394
Margins
Blended GM peaks on contract structure, not price: SCA-covered volume prices off terms struck 1-2Q ago, so spot upside lands with a lag.1-2Qevidence:MU:mu-ev-0065 evidence:MU:mu-ev-0042
Mix runs against the HBM story: HBM is now dilutive to Micron's gross margin because conventional DRAM margins exploded - conventional is the engine.0-1Qexposure:MU:mu-elast-007 exposure:000660:000660-elast-021
Micron Taiwan's strike ballot carried with ~80% backing, with a September vote live and a record October bonus offered - back-end DRAM output at risk.0-1QWccftech (via Google News) 2026-09-01 Reuters (tech headlines via Google News) 2026-09-01
Shares & BVPS
Micron's equity build, not buybacks, carries the per-share leg: modelled BVPS USD 684.58 by Q4 FY31 while capex stays mid-USD 40bn in FY27.1Y+expectations:MU evidence:MU:mu-ev-0069
Samsung's book compounds through the cycle to a modelled KRW 298,753 BVPS by Q4 FY30, so downside has to come from the multiple, not book erosion.1Y+expectations:005930
Multiple chain
Sentiment
Sell-side stance on Samsung is uniformly Buy or Overweight across the June tail, so there is no positioning cushion if the FY27 EPS slope keeps rolling.0-1Qstance:005930 slope:005930:EPS FY27 (KRW)
Micron's book is split - UBS Buy with FY28E EPS $265.65 vs consensus $177.70 against a Goldman Neutral - so dispersion, not level, is what resolves.1-2Qstance:MU evidence:MU:mu-ev-0064
Advantest marks straddle Goldman Neutral and JPM Overweight while FY28 EPS revisions accelerate - sentiment is lagging the estimate slope.1-2Qstance:6857 slope:6857:EPS FY28 (JPY)
Peer co-movement
The complex trades as one: every maker's revision slope is decelerating at the same time, so single-name dispersion is unlikely to be rewarded near-term.0-1Qslope:MU:EPS FY28 (USD) slope:005930:EPS FY28 (KRW) slope:000660:EPS FY27 (KRW)
Test and equipment decouple upward: Advantest FY28 revenue revisions accelerate on HBM and KGD test intensity while the makers' slopes fade.2-4Qslope:6857:Revenue FY28 (JPYmn) evidence:6857:6857-ev-0227
Nvidia cutting its own GM guide on memory cost makes memory the value-capturing node, arguing the cohort re-rates against its buyers rather than with them.1-2QTheElec (English) 2026-08-27 DigiTimes 2026-09-01
Terminal / exit-multiple regime
Reverse-DCF prices the cycle's end, not its extension: implied terminal growth is negative at both Micron (-8.3%) and SK hynix (-5.7%) vs 2.5% consensus.1Y+expectations:MU expectations:000660
CXMT's LPDDR6 claim is the terminal-value attack: domestic China supply is what pins the exit multiple even while near-term contract pricing runs hot.1Y+r/hardware (top of day) 2026-09-01 exposure:000660:000660-elast-003
Advantest is the exception the tape has already granted: implied terminal growth 7.1% vs 2.5% consensus on a 16-year implied value-growth duration.1Y+expectations:6857
companies (6)
NameMechanism (claude judgment, cited)Rev-slope
MUUnder half of data-center demand fulfilled and C2027 tighter than C2026, but 50%+ of revenue sits under SCAs priced 1-2Q back - price upside is capped. evidence:MU:mu-ev-0063 evidence:MU:mu-ev-0065 evidence:MU:mu-ev-0042DECELERATING
005930Locks ~70% of output to 2031 and UBS now forecasts Samsung may pass SK hynix on HBM bit share in 2027 at 41% - the execution gap is narrowing. TechNews 科技新報 2026-09-01 evidence:005930:005930-ev-0397 evidence:005930:005930-ev-0398DECELERATING
6857KGD probing is now a requirement for multi-die packages and its silicon-photonics tester is HBM HVM-ready - stack complexity converts into test time. evidence:6857:6857-ev-0227 evidence:6857:6857-ev-0226ACCELERATING
000660Shortage called through 2030 with 2026 capacity sold out, but server DDR5 now out-prices HBM per gigabit, reversing the HBM conversion incentive. Reuters (tech headlines via Google News) 2026-08-28 exposure:000660:000660-elast-016 exposure:000660:000660-elast-021DECELERATING
CXMTClaims an LPDDR6 breakthrough with Xiaomi preparing first handsets on it - a domestic China DRAM supply vector, claimed rather than verified. r/hardware (top of day) 2026-09-01
KLICWire-bond capacity is bottlenecked into 2027 per design-house channel checks, which is pricing power for the bonder duopoly. DigiTimes 2026-08-28
from: DigiTimes, Reuters (tech headlines via Google News), TechNews 科技新報, TheElec (English), Wccftech (via Google News), r/hardware (top of day) (news flow, section 03 - same triage store)
GAP: The memory industry model carries no HBM-specific ASP or bit-demand series, so the Rubin Ultra content downspec cannot be tested against the store - run /ingest-industry memory.
GAP: No exposure or evidence rows exist for CXMT, KLIC, SNDK, RMBS or SIMO, so the China-supply and packaging legs rest on news alone - run /extract-exposure CXMT.
GAP: Memory chain edge weights are unreviewed, so there is no buyer cost-share to size Nvidia's memory-cost pass-through against the HBM sellers - run /edges review memory.
GAP: SK hynix revision slopes are dated 2026-07-06 against 2026-08-31 for the other names, so the cohort deceleration read is not measured on a common date - run /pull-va 000660.
SPE / WFE111▲ 16▼ 118·
Deceleration at AMAT, MKSI and TEL is rotation, not roll - process control, test and packaging accelerated in the same month, leaving the multiple as the exposed leg.
Δ vs prior: Multiple exposure unchanged, but the roll now reads as rotation - ONTO, ASMI and Advantest accelerated against the AMAT/MKSI/TEL deceleration, and ASML's service annuity is the new tail risk.
EPS chain
Revenue
HBM silicon penalty vs DDR5 widens each generation, so bit growth absorbs disproportionate wafer starts - the structural pull under WFE orders.2-4QTom's Hardware 2026-08-25 exposure:AMAT:amat-elast-010
AMAT guided October revenue above Street with advanced packaging set to grow over 70% Y/Y CY26 - breadth beyond leading-edge logic.0-1Qevidence:AMAT:amat-ev-0585 evidence:AMAT:amat-ev-0589
ASML litho: the China DUV sales-and-service ban push stalled in Congress, but Samsung deferring High-NA to 1nm is a real order-window pushout.2-4QTechNews 科技新報 2026-08-24 Bits&Chips 2026-08-21 DigiTimes 2026-08-21
Margins
AMAT guides October revenue +12% Q/Q yet holds gross margin at 50.4% - the packaging and DRAM ramp is not lifting mix yet.0-1Qevidence:AMAT:amat-ev-0585 evidence:AMAT:amat-ev-0590
ONTO hit its >30% non-GAAP operating-margin target two quarters early at 57.0% gross margin - process-control incrementals running above plan.0-1Qevidence:ONTO:onto-ev-0032
MKSI printed 47.6% gross margin then guided Q3 back to 47.0% - the tier-2 subsystem layer cannot hold peak pricing into the ramp.0-1Qevidence:MKSI:mksi-ev-0041
Shares & BVPS
MKSI's $1.4bn convertible met its stock-price conversion condition again in Q2 and stays convertible through Q3 - live dilution overhang.0-1Qevidence:MKSI:mksi-ev-0042
ONTO H1 GAAP EPS fell YoY on $39.4m intangible amortization while $720m went into an unconsolidated Rigaku stake - BVPS builds, GAAP EPS lags.2-4Qevidence:ONTO:onto-ev-0033 evidence:ONTO:onto-ev-0034
·Book value compounds past the forecast window - AMAT 63.23 by Q4 FY30, LRCX 25.62, ONTO 66.33 by Q4 FY28 - exit multiples rest on retention.1Y+expectations:AMAT expectations:LRCX expectations:ONTO
Multiple chain
Sentiment
·Published stance on ASML is stale - newest vintages on file date to Jul-2023 and Jan-2025 - the China-ban headlines are unmarked by the street.0-1Qstance:ASML TrendForce press center 2026-08-25
Five houses republished on LRCX the same day (2026-07-30) - stance is clustered post-print, so the marginal buyer is already positioned.1-2Qstance:LRCX
TEL stance was refreshed by four houses across Jun-Jul while its FY27 EPS revision slope decelerated to 9.4% - published views lag the second derivative.1-2Qstance:8035 slope:8035:EPS FY27 (JPY)
Peer co-movement
The theme no longer moves as one bloc - ONTO, ASMI and Advantest slopes accelerated while AMAT, MKSI, TEL and 0522 decelerated in the same month.1-2Qslope:ONTO:EPS FY27 (USD) slope:ASMI:Revenue FY27 (EURmn) slope:6857:EPS FY28 (JPY)
Hybrid-bonding deferral to HBM5 splits the packaging peers - the TC-bond and wire-bond window extends by what BESI's tool revenue loses.2-4QBits&Chips 2026-08-26 DigiTimes 2026-08-27 DigiTimes 2026-08-28
·Shared hyperscaler concentration means the whole WFE complex re-rates on the same AI-capex headline - a demand fact here, not a flow artefact.1Y+readthrough:read-through-crdo-hyperscaler-concentration_v1.md SemiWiki 2026-08-19
Terminal / exit-multiple regime
Implied terminal growth runs 5.5-8.8% against 2.5% consensus at MKSI, ASML, LRCX, TER and ONTO - the tape capitalizes content intensity as permanent.1Y+expectations:MKSI expectations:ASML expectations:LRCX
0522 prices below consensus on revenue, margin and terminal lenses - 24.2% implied CAGR and 1.2% terminal growth vs 28.8% and 2.5% consensus.1Y+expectations:0522
·KLAC's reverse-DCF reads -18.1% implied revenue CAGR and negative terminal growth vs 21.4% consensus - reads as an engine artefact, not a market view.0-1Qexpectations:KLAC
companies (13)
NameMechanism (claude judgment, cited)Rev-slope
AMATGuided October above Street with advanced packaging >70% Y/Y CY26, but July DRAM missed on timing and every revision slope is decelerating. evidence:AMAT:amat-ev-0585 evidence:AMAT:amat-ev-0587 evidence:AMAT:amat-ev-0589DECELERATING
LRCXSAM at 36-36.5% of WFE trending to high-30s, but this month's news is capability spend - a Taiwan injection and a 2028 Oregon R&D site, not orders. exposure:LRCX:lrcx-elast-021 經濟日報 (UDN Money) tech 2026-09-01 TechNews 科技新報 2026-08-28STABLE
ASMLHigh-NA reached its first HVM logic product while Samsung deferred High-NA to 1nm; the live risk is a DUV ban covering servicing, not just new tools. DigiTimes 2026-09-01 DigiTimes 2026-08-21 TrendForce press center 2026-08-25ACCELERATING
ONTORecord Q2 with advanced nodes +50% QoQ and the >30% non-GAAP operating margin hit two quarters early - every revision slope accelerated. evidence:ONTO:onto-ev-0030 evidence:ONTO:onto-ev-0031 evidence:ONTO:onto-ev-0032ACCELERATING
ASMISpares and services +28% YoY cc and customer advances +34% signal a back-half memory ramp, though receivables jumped EUR408m alongside. evidence:ASMI:asmi-ev-0075 evidence:ASMI:asmi-ev-0076 evidence:ASMI:asmi-ev-0077ACCELERATING
KLACProcess control is now bought linearly with added capacity rather than dialed back at maturity, with KLA share of WFE at 7.4% and assumed near 9% by 2030. exposure:KLAC:klac-elast-025 exposure:KLAC:klac-elast-027 slope:KLAC:EPS FY27 (USD)STABLE
MKSIBeat the guide high end on Electronics +43% YoY, but Q3 GM guides down and, as the tier-2 supplier, MKSI leads the OEM cycle in both directions. evidence:MKSI:mksi-ev-0039 evidence:MKSI:mksi-ev-0041 exposure:MKSI:mksi-elast-003DECELERATING
6857Silicon-photonics test cell now in high-volume production and KGD probing mandatory for multi-die - offset by Korean vendors taking HBM4 wafer-test share. TheElec (English) 2026-08-26 evidence:6857:6857-ev-0226 ETNews 전자신문 2026-08-25ACCELERATING
8035Record first half and a panel-level packaging push, but revisions decelerate and the coater/cleaning bundle carries ~50% gross margin vs ~100% dry etch. TechNews 科技新報 2026-08-26 exposure:8035:8035-elast-008 exposure:8035:8035-elast-010DECELERATING
0522Wire-bond bottleneck into 2027 plus hybrid bonding deferred to HBM5 hand the bonder duopoly pricing power, yet FY27 revisions decelerated. DigiTimes 2026-08-28 Bits&Chips 2026-08-26 slope:0522:EPS FY27 (HKD)DECELERATING
TERTest intensity scales directly with packaging and HBM stack complexity; FY27-28 revisions accelerated, but the price already embeds 8.1% terminal growth. exposure:TER:ter-elast-001 slope:TER:EPS FY27 (USD) expectations:TERACCELERATING
2360All six revision slopes rolled, FY28 revenue slope down 19.6pp and FY28 EPS down 16.1pp - the largest revision deltas in this bundle. slope:2360:Revenue FY28 (TWDmn) slope:2360:EPS FY28 (TWD)DECELERATING
042700SK hynix deferring hybrid bonding to HBM5 extends the microbump and TC-bonding window through HBM4E - a life-extension for the TC bonder installed base. Bits&Chips 2026-08-26
from: Bits&Chips, DigiTimes, ETNews 전자신문, SemiWiki, TechNews 科技新報, TheElec (English) +3 (news flow, section 03 - same triage store)
GAP: The wfe industry model is header-only with zero rows, so every WFE dollar level here rests on broker and expert priors rather than a tracked model - run /ingest-industry wfe.
GAP: KLAC's reverse-DCF returns a negative implied terminal growth and a -18.1% implied revenue CAGR, which is not a readable market expectation - run /init-valuation KLAC.
GAP: ASML and ASMI carry no stance vintages newer than Jan-2025, so the sentiment leg for the litho and ALD names is unmarked by current sell-side work - run /pull-ciq.
GAP: Evidence ledgers are empty for LRCX, KLAC, TER, 0522, 8035 and ASML, so those mechanisms lean on elasticity priors rather than dated evidence - run /thesis backfill LRCX.
Advanced Packaging122▲ 10▼ 107·
Second-sourcing to Intel EMIB and the CoPoS pivot add capacity into a shortage rather than take share, and hybrid bonding slipping to HBM5 keeps the rent with incumbent bonder and test tools.
Δ vs prior: Adds a displacement leg the prior missed: TSMC is reportedly delaying CoWoS orders as CoPoS firms up, and Unimicron's origin probe puts a regulatory discount on the substrate leg.
EPS chain
Revenue
Wire-bond capacity is the 2027 bottleneck and hybrid bonding slipped to HBM5, so bonder volumes and pricing extend rather than roll over.2-4QDigiTimes 2026-08-28 Bits&Chips 2026-08-26
AMD and Broadcom booked most of Powertech panel-level capacity while TSMC reportedly delays CoWoS orders as CoPoS firms up - panel starts taking 2.5D volume.1Y+DigiTimes 2026-08-27 DigiTimes 2026-09-01 TrendForce press center 2026-08-31
Die-layer probing is now a requirement for multi-die packages and silicon-photonics test cells are in HVM, raising test content per package.2-4Qevidence:6857:6857-ev-0227 evidence:6857:6857-ev-0226 TheElec (English) 2026-08-26
Margins
Onto's Q2 non-GAAP OM 30.0% vs 25.9% yr-ago reached the >30% Q4-2026 target two quarters early, with non-GAAP GM 57.0% vs 54.5%.0-1Qevidence:ONTO:onto-ev-0032 evidence:ONTO:onto-ev-0030
3533's Q2 FY26 OM 21.97% is an eighth consecutive quarterly decline: admin +61.1% and R&D +36.1% YoY outran revenue +14.8% YoY.0-1Qevidence:3533:3533-ev-0048 evidence:3533:3533-ev-0050 evidence:3533:3533-ev-0052
Hybrid bonding deferred to HBM5 extends the microbump and TC-bonding window through HBM4E, pushing out the re-tooling cost step for bonder incumbents.1Y+Bits&Chips 2026-08-26 DigiTimes 2026-08-27
Shares & BVPS
·Onto's US$720m 27% Rigaku stake is fair-valued and unconsolidated, so it lands in book value as a mark rather than in consolidated earnings.1Y+evidence:ONTO:onto-ev-0034 expectations:ONTO
Onto H1 FY26 GAAP diluted EPS $1.88 vs $1.99 yr-ago despite revenue +22.1%, on intangible amortization $39.4m vs $16.9m.0-1Qevidence:ONTO:onto-ev-0033
3533 lifted PP&E +22.20% YoY to NT$13,429mn for scale expansion, so book value builds through capex rather than buyback.1Y+evidence:3533:3533-ev-0046 expectations:3533
Multiple chain
Sentiment
0522's stance tail stops in May 2026 and splits three Buy/Overweight against a Goldman Neutral, so the wire-bond rent read is not yet in the street's stance.1-2Qstance:0522
Advantest's June-26 tail runs Bernstein and JPM Outperform/Overweight against a Goldman Neutral while FY28 EPS revisions accelerated 11.7pp to +35.2%.1-2Qstance:6857 slope:6857:EPS FY28 (JPY)
Onto's coverage tail is Morgan Stanley-only since June with no rating recorded, while FY27 EPS revisions accelerated 14.1pp to +22.7% - stance lags the numbers.1-2Qstance:ONTO slope:ONTO:EPS FY27 (USD)
Peer co-movement
Packaging names trade as one bid - TSMC, ASE, Unimicron and Powertech all lifted on the same CoWoS-overflow and MediaTek-Nvidia headlines.0-1Q經濟日報 (UDN Money) tech 2026-08-19 DigiTimes 2026-09-01 TrendForce press center 2026-08-31
Unimicron's limit-down on the origin-of-production probe decoupled the substrate leg from that bid - a regulatory discount, not a demand one.0-1Q經濟日報 (UDN Money) tech 2026-09-01
The bid is not uniform: Onto and Teradyne FY27 EPS revisions are accelerating while 0522's FY27 EPS decelerated 2.4pp to +12.7%.1-2Qslope:ONTO:EPS FY27 (USD) slope:TER:EPS FY27 (USD) slope:0522:EPS FY27 (HKD)
Terminal / exit-multiple regime
Advantest implies 7.1% terminal growth on a 16.2-year value-growth duration against 4 years consensus - the test-intensity story is already capitalized.1Y+expectations:6857
Onto implies 8.8% terminal growth on an 87.4% terminal EBIT margin vs 34.1% consensus - the risk sits in the terminal leg, not the revision slope.1Y+expectations:ONTO
0522 implies 1.2% terminal growth, 17.8% EBIT margin and 24.2% revenue CAGR, all below consensus, so bonder tightness is not in its exit multiple.1Y+expectations:0522
companies (8)
NameMechanism (claude judgment, cited)Rev-slope
0522Hybrid bonding deferred to HBM5 plus a 2027 wire-bond bottleneck extends TC-bonder and microbump demand, though FY27 EPS revisions already decelerated. Bits&Chips 2026-08-26 DigiTimes 2026-08-28 slope:0522:EPS FY27 (HKD)DECELERATING
3533Eighth consecutive quarterly OM decline to 21.97% in Q2 FY26 as admin +61.1% and R&D +36.1% YoY outran revenue +14.8%; inventory +58.7% YoY is input-led. evidence:3533:3533-ev-0048 evidence:3533:3533-ev-0050 evidence:3533:3533-ev-0051STABLE
6857Silicon-photonics test cells in HVM and mandatory die-layer probing for multi-die packages lift test content, against Korean HBM4 wafer-test share gains. TheElec (English) 2026-08-26 evidence:6857:6857-ev-0227 ETNews 전자신문 2026-08-25ACCELERATING
ONTOAdvanced Packaging at a record on 2.5D, HBM and silicon photonics; non-GAAP OM 30.0% vs 25.9% yr-ago hit the >30% Q4-2026 target two quarters early. evidence:ONTO:onto-ev-0030 evidence:ONTO:onto-ev-0032ACCELERATING
TERTest intensity rises with packaging and HBM-stack complexity (T4 ex-TER manager, directional, no ratio), and FY27/FY28 EPS revisions are accelerating. exposure:TER:ter-elast-001 slope:TER:EPS FY27 (USD)ACCELERATING
3037Origin-of-production probe drove a limit-down, company says the disputed goods are PCB not substrates; CoWoS overflow still lifts the substrate leg. 經濟日報 (UDN Money) tech 2026-09-01 經濟日報 (UDN Money) tech 2026-08-19 slope:3037:Revenue FY27 (TWDmn)DECELERATING
009150Leads 4Q26 OEM MLCC price hikes TrendForce calls the start of an up-cycle, on a T1 prior of ~10-15x MLCC content per AI server vs general-purpose. TrendForce press center 2026-08-27 exposure:009150:009150-elast-001ACCELERATING
042700SK hynix deferring hybrid bonding to HBM5 extends the TC-bonding window through HBM4E, keeping a cycle of bonder demand hybrid bonding would have taken. Bits&Chips 2026-08-26
from: Bits&Chips, DigiTimes, ETNews 전자신문, TheElec (English), TrendForce press center, 經濟日報 (UDN Money) tech (news flow, section 03 - same triage store)
GAP: No industry model is linked to Advanced Packaging, so CoWoS/CoPoS capacity and bonder supply are asserted from news rather than a supply series - run /ingest-industry advanced-packaging.
GAP: No edge chain exists for advanced packaging, so the TSMC-to-OSAT and bonder-to-HBM cost and revenue shares stay unweighted - run /edges extract advanced-packaging.
GAP: 0522 and TER carry zero evidence entries, so the wire-bond bottleneck and test-intensity legs rest on news and one T4 prior - run /thesis backfill 0522.
GAP: Stance tails for 0522 (May-26), 6857 (Jun-26) and 009150 (Jun-26) are two to four months stale, so sentiment cannot be read against the August acceleration - run /route-broker-mail.
Optics / Connectivity197▲ 12▼ 232·
Optics content per cluster is inflecting ahead of the designer lane: copper-to-optics pulls into 2027 and CPO/OCS convert, while DSP and ASIC revision slopes decelerate into a stretched multiple.
Δ vs prior: Supply scarcity is no longer the only leg - Marvell put copper-to-optics deployment inside 2027 and TSMC put silicon photonics past half the market, so the lane is a timing pull-forward too.
EPS chain
Revenue
Copper-to-optics pulls forward: Marvell says customers could deploy optical interconnect as early as next year, lifting optics content per cluster.2-4QTechNews 科技新報 2026-08-28 exposure:MRVL:mrvl-elast-002
Scale-up optics and connectivity are the largest driver of Marvell's $1.5bn FY28 revenue raise, with scale-out switching set to more than double this year.1Y+evidence:MRVL:mrvl-ev-0073 evidence:MRVL:mrvl-ev-0070 evidence:MRVL:mrvl-ev-0074
Coherent datacom revenue $1,615.0mn +58.6% YoY and Fabrinet a record $1,315.8mn +45% YoY confirm the optics demand curve outside the held names.0-1Qevidence:LITE:lite-ev-0025 evidence:LITE:lite-ev-0024
Margins
Lumentum broke the margin ceiling: Q4 FY26 non-GAAP OM 36.6% above the 35-36% guide, GM 50.4% (+1,270bps YoY), on scarce InP and pump supply.0-1Qevidence:LITE:lite-ev-0019
Marvell's non-GAAP OM steps from 36.6% in July to ~37.2% guided for October and into a 38-40% range in Q4, with Q2 EPS +40% YoY outpacing revenue +37%.1-2Qevidence:MRVL:mrvl-ev-0075
Credo's incremental margin is the flat leg: JPM holds GM at 68.0% across FY27-29E versus FY26's 68.1%, so optical growth is volume, not mix-up.1Y+evidence:CRDO:crdo-ev-0192 evidence:CRDO:crdo-ev-0193
Shares & BVPS
MKS's $1.4bn convertible notes met the conversion condition again in Q2 2026 and stay convertible at holder option through Q3 - a live dilution path.0-1Qevidence:MKSI:mksi-ev-0042
·Broadcom's debt raise reads as AI compute becoming a financed asset class - leverage, not equity, is funding the custom-silicon build.1Y+DigiTimes 2026-08-25
Multiple chain
Sentiment
Credo's broker stance ratcheted higher through 2026 with successive upward revisions in June - the optics attach is now consensus, not a variant view.1-2Qstance:CRDO
Marvell beat, raised FY28 to ~$18bn and still opened sharply lower on Google-ramp timing - the multiple, not the numbers, is now doing the work.0-1QDigiTimes 2026-08-28 經濟日報 (UDN Money) tech 2026-08-29 evidence:MRVL:mrvl-ev-0070
The reported $120bn Google-Marvell number is challenged as far smaller than the headline - a sentiment anchor with no verified revenue behind it.0-1QThe Next Platform 2026-08-27 EE Times 2026-08-29
Peer co-movement
TSMC's silicon-photonics talk (over half the market by 2027, transceiver demand +~50% this year) lifts the Taiwan optical complex on one vendor's roadmap.0-1Q經濟日報 (UDN Money) tech 2026-09-01 經濟日報 (UDN Money) tech 2026-08-30
Marvell's print set Taiwan optical suppliers (3081, 3163) higher even as MRVL itself fell - the complex now trades the optics content, not the DSP owner.0-1Q經濟日報 (UDN Money) tech 2026-08-29
The ASIC lane pulls flows from the GPU lane: OpenAI's Jalapeno claims 1.9x throughput per kW over GB300, re-rating the ASIC peer set rather than optics.1-2QBloomberg (tech headlines via Google News) 2026-08-26 EE Times 2026-08-28
Terminal / exit-multiple regime
Credo's price implies ~7.1% terminal growth vs 2.5% consensus and an 87.7% EBIT margin vs 41.3% - the multiple underwrites a regime the model does not.1Y+expectations:CRDO
Lumentum's implied 5.2% terminal growth vs 2.5% consensus is the narrowest gap of the three held names on file, and FY27-28 EPS slopes accelerate into it.1Y+expectations:LITE expectations:CRDO expectations:MKSI
MKS's implied ~85.8% revenue CAGR against 31.6% consensus is the widest growth-lens gap on file, with five of six revision slopes decelerating into it.1Y+expectations:MKSI slope:MKSI:EPS FY27 (USD) slope:MKSI:Revenue FY27 (USDmn)
companies (6)
NameMechanism (claude judgment, cited)Rev-slope
LITEScarce InP/EML/pump supply, ~70-80% share and sold out on 3-year take-or-pay, with OCS doubling QoQ into a first $100mn+ quarter - supply rent, not just volume. evidence:LITE:lite-ev-0017 evidence:LITE:lite-ev-0020 TechNews 科技新報 2026-08-28ACCELERATING
MRVLConnectivity is the largest driver of the $1.5bn FY28 raise; scale-up optics tracking above the prior ~$300mn as NPO broadens, with OM heading to 38-40% in Q4. evidence:MRVL:mrvl-ev-0073 evidence:MRVL:mrvl-ev-0074 evidence:MRVL:mrvl-ev-0075DECELERATING
CRDOOptical is the growth leg (JPM lifted 2H FY27 optical to $700mn+ from $600mn+) but GM holds flat at 68% while 1.6T/3.2T AECs face copper-to-optics displacement. evidence:CRDO:crdo-ev-0193 evidence:CRDO:crdo-ev-0192 exposure:CRDO:crdo-elast-003STABLE
MKSIQ2 2026 revenue $1,248mn beat the high end (+28.3% YoY) on Electronics & Packaging +43.2%, but Q3 GM guides down to 47.0% and $1.4bn converts stay in the money. evidence:MKSI:mksi-ev-0039 evidence:MKSI:mksi-ev-0040 evidence:MKSI:mksi-ev-0041DECELERATING
AVGOCustom-ASIC demand validated by OpenAI's Jalapeno and CSP order visibility into 2028, but FY27-28 EPS revision slopes are decelerating off high levels. EE Times 2026-08-28 DigiTimes 2026-08-28 slope:AVGO:EPS FY27 (USD)DECELERATING
3081InP laser-chip supplier to Lumentum printed Q2 FY26 revenue NT$1,221mn (+121% YoY, +35% QoQ) at 57% GM (+14pp) - the scarce-supply rent showing up upstream. evidence:LITE:lite-ev-0023 經濟日報 (UDN Money) tech 2026-08-29
from: Bloomberg (tech headlines via Google News), DigiTimes, EE Times, TechNews 科技新報, The Next Platform, 經濟日報 (UDN Money) tech (news flow, section 03 - same triage store)
GAP: No industry model is linked to this theme, so transceiver unit and 800G/1.6T port forecasts rest on news assertions rather than a store series - run /ingest-industry optics-connectivity.
GAP: AVGO carries no evidence rows and no expectations lens, so the largest held ASIC name has neither a thesis ledger nor an implied-vs-consensus read - run /thesis backfill AVGO.
GAP: MRVL has no expectations lens on file, so the FY28 ~$18bn raise cannot be tested against what the multiple already implies - run /init-valuation MRVL.
GAP: LITE's stance tail is all TBD ratings and targets from May 2026, so sell-side positioning on the OCS and CPO ramp is unreadable - run /process-filings LITE.
DC Power / Electrification111▲ 16▼ 86·
Higher-probability read: the constraint moved from rack content to the interconnect - turbines sold out to 2030 and state power halts shift value to generation and grid gear, not rack ASP.
Δ vs prior: Prior capped the case on flat dollars-per-watt; this window adds the harder gate - Texas, New Jersey and Korea putting permission-to-power ahead of rack content, turbines sold out to 2030.
EPS chain
Revenue
AI rack power steps up from ~130kW at GB300 to ~220kW at Rubin, so per-rack power spend rises even as dollars-per-watt fall ~5% a year.2-4Qexposure:2308:2308-elast-028
PSU price is flat at ~9-10 cents a watt and Delta's own rack math runs USD 20k/30k/44k across GB200-GB300-NVL72; content did not double into Rubin.1Y+evidence:2308:2308-ev-0011 evidence:2308:2308-ev-0012
Generation and grid gear are booking out: turbine capacity sold out to 2030, a US order bars foreign grid equipment, transformers on scarce lead time.1Y+經濟日報 (UDN Money) tech 2026-09-01 經濟日報 (UDN Money) tech 2026-08-28 TechNews 科技新報 2026-08-30
Margins
Cooling is an organic component business at TWD 16bn and 20%+ OP last year, guided to at least TWD 25bn this year with no M&A spend.2-4Qevidence:2308:2308-ev-0014
Delta's GM is at a record 35-37% but mgmt calls going higher hard, and datacenter systems are inherently lower margin than the component book.2-4Qevidence:2308:2308-ev-0013 exposure:2308:2308-elast-023
Taiwan power-discrete makers follow Infineon with 10-15% hikes on non-contract parts from October - device pricing power, system-builder cost push.0-1Q經濟日報 (UDN Money) tech 2026-08-17 經濟日報 (UDN Money) tech 2026-08-18
Shares & BVPS
Delta's store carries BVPS of TWD 262 at Q4 FY28 off retained earnings; no buyback, raise or dilution event appears anywhere in this window.1Y+expectations:2308
·Bloom's only book marker is a modeled Q4 FY35 BVPS of USD 52.8 - too far out to anchor anything, and no equity action sits in the bundle.1Y+expectations:BE
Multiple chain
Sentiment
Delta's broker tail stops in June, all Buy or Overweight, and none of it has been refreshed since the August FY26 EPS revision flipped negative.0-1Qstance:2308 slope:2308:EPS FY26 (TWD)
Bloom's book is split - Jefferies at Hold, Morgan Stanley Overweight, Barclays and Citi neutral - so nobody is chasing the fuel-cell order flow.0-1Qstance:BE
Auras limit-up to a record on an FY27 thermal guide is the theme's sentiment mark: adjacency is being paid before the revenue lands.0-1QTechNews 科技新報 2026-09-01
Peer co-movement
Industrial capital is bidding into DC thermal - SLB buying Kelvion at USD 4.1bn, a US filtration group buying a German fan maker at USD 5.4bn.0-1QTechNews 科技新報 2026-09-01 TechNews 科技新報 2026-08-27
Power semis are consolidating onto the same AI rail: Infineon bought C2i for multiphase control, Navitas bought a vertical power manager.1-2QDigiTimes 2026-08-25 Electronics Weekly 2026-08-27
The hyperscaler-concentration read-through binds here too - the comp set discounts one narrow set of AI capex budgets, so it re-rates together.1Y+readthrough:read-through-crdo-hyperscaler-concentration_v1.md
Terminal / exit-multiple regime
Prices embed terminal growth of 6.6% at Bloom and 4.8% at Delta against a 2.5% consensus stub, plus three to four extra years of value-growth duration.1Y+expectations:BE expectations:2308
Delta mgmt itself questions duration - datacenter is over half of H1 revenue and it doubts capex above USD 700bn can keep doubling annually.1Y+evidence:2308:2308-ev-0015
Permission-to-power is the new gate: Texas halted powering new datacenters, New Jersey added disclosure rules, Korea is drafting an AI grid code.2-4QReuters (tech headlines via Google News) 2026-09-01 TechNews 科技新報 2026-08-28 ETNews 전자신문 2026-08-27
companies (5)
NameMechanism (claude judgment, cited)Rev-slope
BEFuel-cell deployment is landing - LS Electric supplying USD34m of power distribution for a US hyperscale site - but FY27 EPS revisions keep decelerating. TheElec (English) 2026-08-19 TechNews 科技新報 2026-08-21 slope:BE:EPS FY27 (USD)DECELERATING
2308Watts carry the revenue: rack power runs 130kW to 220kW while PSU price stays ~10 cents a watt, and FY26 EPS revisions have already flipped negative. exposure:2308:2308-elast-028 evidence:2308:2308-ev-0011 slope:2308:EPS FY26 (TWD)SIGN-FLIP-DOWN
GEVTurbine capacity sold out to 2030 as AI sites buy generation ahead of interconnect; SpaceX casting its own blades is the first insourcing crack. 經濟日報 (UDN Money) tech 2026-09-01 TechNews 科技新報 2026-09-01
6594Vietnam capacity expansion plus a dedicated liquid-cooling team for AI server thermal - a motor maker buying onto the rack thermal attach. DigiTimes 2026-09-01
6752September substrate material price hike on copper foil and glass cloth costs - input inflation passed downstream, not a DC power demand signal. TechNews 科技新報 2026-08-28
from: DigiTimes, ETNews 전자신문, Electronics Weekly, Reuters (tech headlines via Google News), TechNews 科技新報, TheElec (English) +1 (news flow, section 03 - same triage store)
GAP: No industry model is linked to this theme, so rack, HVDC, turbine and transformer volumes rest on news and expert claims rather than a series - run /ingest-industry dc-power-electrification.
GAP: No promoted edge chain covers the grid-to-chip power chain, so turbine and transformer tightness cannot be weighted through to component names - run /edges extract dc-power.
GAP: Bloom Energy holds no exposure claims and no evidence ledger, so the theme's only long is carried by news flow and revision slopes alone - run /thesis bootstrap BE.
GAP: Eight theme tickers (ABB, ETN, SU, VRT, VICR, BELFB, 3017, 3324) carry no evidence, exposure or slope rows, so the read rests on two names - run /master-init ETN.
Passives / MLCC32▲ 2▼ 13·
SEMCO's 4Q26 OEM hike cracks the channel-only read, but with book-to-bill >2 on double-ordering and Yageo's slopes decelerating, EPS upside stays mix-driven while the multiple is prepaid.
Δ vs prior: Prior read the price-up as channel-only; SEMCO's 4Q26 OEM hike and KRW1.072tn LTA put it on maker invoices, while Yageo's slopes turned DECELERATING across every horizon.
EPS chain
Revenue
AI-server MLCC piece counts step up each GPU generation (H100 to GB200 NVL72) and high-end lead times run 5-10 months, so 2027 volume is booked, not hoped.2-4Qexposure:6981:6981-elast-026 TrendForce press center 2026-08-18
Japanese capacitor shipments rose 22% in 1H26 and SEMCO signed a KRW1.072tn AI-server MLCC LTA - demand is now landing as contracted backlog.0-1QDigiTimes 2026-09-01 TheElec (English) 2026-09-01
A TDK insider reads industry book-to-bill above 2.0 as rampant double-ordering; Taiyo Yuden mgmt calls its own 1.7 book inventory rebuild, not double orders.2-4Qevidence:2327:2327-ev-0151 evidence:6976:6976-ev-0040
Margins
Realized ASP moves through mix to higher-cap/higher-voltage parts, not list price; Murata still denies any data-center list hike, so margin gain is content-led.1-2Qexposure:6981:6981-elast-004 evidence:6981:6981-ev-0097
Taiyo Yuden cut its like-for-like price-down OP drag from about JPY19bn to JPY13bn, a JPY6bn swing - pricing relief landing in the P&L, not the channel.0-1Qevidence:6976:6976-ev-0038
Copper-led input inflation and Murata's cost-driven framing of its pricing stance say the incremental margin is narrower than the tightness headlines imply.1-2QDigiTimes 2026-08-19 evidence:6981:6981-ev-0098
Shares & BVPS
No buyback or dilution event in the window; Kyocera's JPY100bn MLCC capex to 2031 and Walsin's NT$4bn route earnings into the asset base, not the share count.1Y+EE Times Japan (ITmedia) 2026-09-01 DigiTimes 2026-08-11
Murata's modeled BVPS builds to JPY2,973 by Q4 FY31 and Taiyo Yuden's to JPY2,494 by Q4 FY26 - the book floor under any exit-multiple reset.1Y+expectations:6981 expectations:6976
Multiple chain
Sentiment
TrendForce reading SEMCO's 4Q26 OEM hike as the start of an MLCC upcycle is the narrative pivot, while Murata's own broker stance tail sits at April vintages.0-1QTrendForce press center 2026-08-27 stance:6981
TDK's roughly 90% YoY net-profit jump and Yageo's fifth straight record month keep the tape paying for passives prints; TDK stance tails are Buy/Overweight.0-1QTechNews 科技新報 2026-08-03 經濟日報 (UDN Money) tech 2026-08-11 stance:6762
Xiaomi's Q2 profit roughly halved on component cost inflation - once OEM margin pain becomes the story, passives pricing power reads as a customer tax.2-4QElectronics Weekly 2026-08-19
Peer co-movement
Chinese MLCC makers rallied on AI-lifted sales as JP/KR majors vacate the mid-low end - the bid is broadening down the quality ladder, not concentrating.1-2QSCMP Tech 2026-08-28 exposure:000636:000636-elast-001
SEMCO is a two-engine AI name - MLCC plus near-full ABF/FC-BGA substrate lines - so its multiple co-moves with the substrate cohort, not pure passives.1-2QDigiTimes 2026-08-17 DigiTimes 2026-08-17
TDK's MLCC book is 80-90% auto/industrial with only 10-20% AI, so any re-rate it takes from MLCC headlines is borrowed from peers rather than earned.1-2Qevidence:6762:6762-ev-0366
Terminal / exit-multiple regime
Implied terminal growth runs 4.2-7.8% vs 2.5% consensus across Murata, Taiyo Yuden, Yageo and SEMCO - the tape already capitalises the shortage as permanent.1Y+expectations:6981 expectations:6976 expectations:2327
Murata and Taiyo Yuden trade on an implied 8.5-year value-growth duration vs 4-year consensus; mgmt's own stated tightness floor is three years.1Y+expectations:6981 expectations:6976 evidence:6981:6981-ev-0095
A durability counter exists: a buyer puts MLCC demand doubling in about four years with the super-cycle flattening around 2033-34, not the feared 2029-30.1Y+exposure:6981:6981-elast-016
companies (7)
NameMechanism (claude judgment, cited)Rev-slope
6981Capacitor book-to-bill 1.47 on record MLCC revenue and mgmt floors data-center tightness at three years-plus; realized ASP climbs on mix, not list price. evidence:6981:6981-ev-0094 evidence:6981:6981-ev-0095 exposure:6981:6981-elast-004STABLE
2327Fifth straight record month, but FY27 EPS slope decelerated 21.9pp and NVIDIA has designed tantalum out of Vera Rubin - the mix is thinning under the volume. 經濟日報 (UDN Money) tech 2026-08-11 slope:2327:EPS FY27 (TWD) evidence:2327:2327-ev-0152DECELERATING
6976Named the number-two AI MLCC supplier and fully booked; the price-down OP drag was cut from about JPY19bn to JPY13bn as FY27-28 EPS slopes accelerate. evidence:6976:6976-ev-0033 evidence:6976:6976-ev-0038 slope:6976:EPS FY27 (JPY)ACCELERATING
6762AI is only 10-20% of TDK's MLCC mix and it caps at 10uF on 0402 where Murata reaches 47uF, yet an X7R derating swap drove real orders and EPS slopes accelerate. evidence:6762:6762-ev-0366 evidence:6762:6762-ev-0367 evidence:6762:6762-ev-0369ACCELERATING
009150Leads the 4Q26 OEM price hikes and signed a KRW1.072tn AI-server MLCC LTA with substrate lines near full, though the glass-substrate line has slipped again. TechNews 科技新報 2026-08-27 TheElec (English) 2026-09-01 DigiTimes 2026-08-17ACCELERATING
2492Chairman flags a passives book-to-bill of 1.8 alongside NT$4bn 2026 capex, and July sales set a record - mid-tier order momentum plus the supply answer. DigiTimes 2026-08-11 DigiTimes 2026-08-11
000636JP/KR majors vacating mid-low end as they chase AI capacity pushes those orders down to Fenghua - intake up from Q1 2026, lead times past 12 weeks. exposure:000636:000636-elast-001 SCMP Tech 2026-08-28
from: DigiTimes, EE Times Japan (ITmedia), Electronics Weekly, SCMP Tech, TechNews 科技新報, TheElec (English) +2 (news flow, section 03 - same triage store)
GAP: No MLCC edge chain is built, so the read-through from a GPU platform shift to each supplier's revenue share is asserted from expert calls rather than the store - run /edges extract MLCC.
GAP: SEMCO carries revision slopes and expectations but an empty evidence ledger, so its KRW1.072tn LTA and 4Q26 hike lead sit uncorroborated - run /thesis backfill 009150.
GAP: Murata's broker stance tail stops at April-2026 vintages with TBD ratings, so the sentiment leg cannot be read against August's tightness news - run /pull-ciq 6981.
GAP: The MLCC industry model holds ASP and volume series through 2030 but no values reached this bundle, so the price-versus-volume split rests on expert calls - run /industry MLCC.
Analog / Power Semis67▲ 1▼ 53·
The physical cycle now reprices at the OEM contract layer - SEMCO 4Q26 hikes, TW discretes from October - yet IFX and Delta FY26 EPS revisions sign-flipped down; treat that as lag, not refutation.
Δ vs prior: SEMCO's 4Q26 OEM hikes and the October TW discrete wave move the cycle out of the channel and into contract books - the channel-only caveat is now too narrow.
EPS chain
Revenue
SEMCO leads 4Q26 OEM MLCC hikes and TW discrete makers take 10-15% on non-contract parts from October - price moves from spot into the contract book.0-1QTechNews 科技新報 2026-08-27 經濟日報 (UDN Money) tech 2026-08-18
High-end MLCC lead times at 5-10 months with tightness into 2027, and Japanese capacitor shipments up 22% in 1H26 - volume and mix tighten together.1-2QTrendForce press center 2026-08-18 DigiTimes 2026-09-01 DigiTimes 2026-08-18
IFX raised FY26 AI-power revenue to over EUR 1.6bn and flags a material FY27 raise at the November call, on multi-year capacity reservations.1-2Qevidence:IFX:ifx-ev-0018
Margins
Tantalum prices nearly tripled, so at non-integrated makers the hike wave defends spreads before it expands them - cost push sits inside the demand pull.1-2QTrendForce press center 2026-08-25 DigiTimes 2026-08-03
IFX segment-result margin 19.1% with Q4 guided near 23%, a 400bps QoQ step, while GIP compressed to 9.8% and a China xEV drag hit the auto margin.0-1Qevidence:IFX:ifx-ev-0020 evidence:IFX:ifx-ev-0021
TDK takes hikes through distributors, not direct accounts, so the MLCC price cycle reaches its P&L diluted versus makers repricing OEM books.1-2Qevidence:6762:6762-ev-0368 TechNews 科技新報 2026-08-27
Shares & BVPS
No buyback or issuance landed in the window; TDK's modelled book builds to JPY 1,848.54 BVPS by Q4 FY31, so equity accretion carries the downside floor.1Y+expectations:6762
·Delta's modelled book reaches TWD 262.21 BVPS by Q4 FY28 - the anchor any exit-multiple argument on the AI-power mix has to clear.1Y+expectations:2308
Multiple chain
Sentiment
IFX stance held BUY through June with BofA at top pick, yet the shares de-rated 5.7% on a beat-and-raise print - sentiment is not paying for the AI leg.0-1Qstance:IFX evidence:IFX:ifx-ev-0022
TDK's stance tail is uniformly Buy with UBS and Citi raising into June, crowding the long side against an accelerating FY27 EPS revision slope.0-1Qstance:6762 slope:6762:EPS FY27 (JPY)
Delta holds Overweight and Outperform across JPM, Bernstein and Fubon while FY26 EPS revisions sign-flipped down - stance has not met the slope.0-1Qstance:2308 slope:2308:EPS FY26 (TWD)
Peer co-movement
AI demand reached the bottom of the ladder - Chinese MLCC makers' shares rose on AI-lifted sales, broadening the move past the Japanese and Korean high end.0-1QSCMP Tech 2026-08-28 SCMP Tech 2026-08-26
The co-move blends two drivers: TDK's ~90% profit jump and Silergy's DC surge are AI demand pull; Holtek's up-to-20% MCU hike is wafer and OSAT cost push.0-1QTechNews 科技新報 2026-08-03 DigiTimes 2026-09-01 DigiTimes 2026-08-03
One customer set sits behind the whole complex - hyperscaler concentration is the shared factor linking the AI-power, passives and optics legs.1Y+readthrough:read-through-crdo-hyperscaler-concentration_v1.md
Terminal / exit-multiple regime
TDK's price implies 17.6% revenue CAGR and 4.3% terminal growth vs consensus 9.1% and 2.5% - an AI regime a 10-20% AI mix does not support.1Y+expectations:6762 evidence:6762:6762-ev-0366
Delta's implied 52.8% revenue CAGR, 30.3% EBIT margin and 7.5-year growth duration price a durability mgmt itself questions at over half of revenue in DC.1Y+expectations:2308 evidence:2308:2308-ev-0015
IFX's terminal case rests on AI power content moving USD 175 to USD 250 per kW on vertical power delivery - the conversion the C2i purchase is meant to own.1Y+exposure:IFX:ifx-elast-004 EE Times Japan (ITmedia) 2026-08-28
companies (10)
NameMechanism (claude judgment, cited)Rev-slope
IFXAI-power guide raised to over EUR 1.6bn FY26 with a material FY27 raise flagged for November, while EPS revisions roll over on auto restructuring and EUR FX. evidence:IFX:ifx-ev-0018 evidence:IFX:ifx-ev-0023 slope:IFX:EPS FY26 (EUR)SIGN-FLIP-DOWN
6762A real AI order tailwind (X7R hi-cap wins after the Vera Rubin derating) meets a refusal to hike direct accounts, so the price cycle lands in the channel. evidence:6762:6762-ev-0369 evidence:6762:6762-ev-0368 slope:6762:EPS FY27 (JPY)ACCELERATING
2308Capacity deliberately shifted to 18.3kW Rubin PSUs from January 2027, ceding GB300 volume - a mix trade that shows up as an FY26 revision sign-flip first. exposure:2308:2308-elast-039 evidence:2308:2308-ev-0012 slope:2308:EPS FY26 (TWD)SIGN-FLIP-DOWN
6415Data centre business surges as new power products scale - the analog name where AI power content is showing up in revenue rather than in guidance. DigiTimes 2026-09-01
2481Power-discrete shortage on NVIDIA power-architecture demand lets TW makers follow Infineon with 10-15% rises on non-contract parts from October. 經濟日報 (UDN Money) tech 2026-08-17 經濟日報 (UDN Money) tech 2026-08-18
6202Holtek hikes MCU prices up to 20% as wafer and OSAT costs climb - a cost pass-through test, not an AI demand read. DigiTimes 2026-08-03
6594Nidec adds Vietnam capacity and stands up a liquid-cooling team for AI server thermal - a capability build, with no order or revenue figure attached yet. DigiTimes 2026-09-01
600745Nexperia China says it rebuilt a local 12-inch supply chain 330 days after the split - company-disclosed, so the completeness claim is unverified. DigiTimes 2026-08-25
6723·Retreat from Takasaki fab output toward R&D plus a Beijing physical-AI lab is a capacity and cost mix shift with no volume or pricing number attached. DigiTimes 2026-08-03 DigiTimes 2026-08-28
6758A USD 6.4bn Sony-TSMC Japan sensor fab adds specialty capacity, while Samsung's 200MP sensor with Oppo first adopting attacks the high-end mobile socket. Bloomberg (tech headlines via Google News) 2026-08-10 DigiTimes 2026-08-10
from: Bloomberg (tech headlines via Google News), DigiTimes, EE Times Japan (ITmedia), SCMP Tech, TechNews 科技新報, TrendForce press center +1 (news flow, section 03 - same triage store)
GAP: No industry model is linked to this theme, so MLCC and power-discrete pricing rests on press citations rather than a series - run /ingest-industry analog-power-semis.
GAP: IFX carries no expectations block, so implied-vs-consensus terminal growth is unavailable for the theme's only held long - run /init-valuation IFX.
GAP: No edge chain exists for AI rack power, so the SEMCO-to-MLCC-to-PSU cost pass-through cannot be walked and magnitudes stay assertions - run /edges extract DC-Power.
GAP: No buyback, issuance or dilution datapoint landed in 30 days, so the shares leg rests on modelled BVPS alone for every name - run /financials 6762.
Foundry205▲ 37▼ 258·
Second-source foundry news finally turned technical, not commercial - Intel 14A defect density and SK hynix base-die interest buy optionality while TSMC books the AI wafer and the packaging dollar.
Δ vs prior: Same concentration read, but the second-source news turned technical - Intel 14A defect density, SK hynix base-die interest - validation without volume; the contested dollar moves to packaging.
EPS chain
Revenue
Pure-play foundry revenue +29% YoY in 2Q26 with TSMC at 73% share; N2 and A16 process-step premiums extend the price leg beyond volume.0-1Q經濟日報 (UDN Money) tech 2026-08-30 exposure:2330:2330-elast-019 exposure:2330:2330-elast-014
Packaging, not wafer, is the binding constraint: CoWoS near-doubled annually across 10 AP fabs, yet orders are delayed as CoPoS panel plans firm.1-2Qevidence:2330:2330-ev-0057 evidence:2330:2330-ev-0058 DigiTimes 2026-09-01
Intel's external foundry revenue stays nameless and pre-volume while internal demand absorbs capacity through 2028 - 14A ROI needs outside volume.2-4Qevidence:INTC:intc-ev-0236 evidence:INTC:intc-ev-0237 exposure:INTC:intc-elast-004
Margins
TSMC defends the ~60% GM floor through wafer pricing as depreciation climbs, but bonuses up 50% put AI talent cost visibly into the cost line.2-4Qexposure:2330:2330-elast-021 exposure:2330:2330-elast-003 Wccftech (via Google News) 2026-08-29
Intel must price 14A to equalise customer die cost at a yield gap, on wafers 10-20% costlier than Taiwan - margin lags the defect-density news.1Y+exposure:INTC:intc-elast-013 exposure:INTC:intc-elast-014 SemiWiki 2026-09-01
Samsung Foundry/LSI is only forecast to break even by 3Q27; memory ASP, not the foundry leg, carries group margin in the meantime.2-4Qevidence:005930:005930-ev-0399 evidence:005930:005930-ev-0393
Shares & BVPS
Intel funds the triple-node ramp with ~$15bn of equity sized at roughly 30k wafer starts/month - capacity bought with dilution, not cash flow.2-4Qevidence:INTC:intc-ev-0232 evidence:INTC:intc-ev-0233
The monetisation legs are explicitly not near-term - Altera un-IPO'd, Mobileye beaten up - so the share count, not asset sales, carries the funding.1Y+evidence:INTC:intc-ev-0234 evidence:INTC:intc-ev-0235
Multiple chain
Sentiment
Samsung's stance tail is uniformly Buy/OW into FY27 EPS revisions decelerating 13.5pp - the crowded side sits opposite the revision slope.0-1Qstance:005930 slope:005930:EPS FY27 (KRW)
TSMC's narrative anchor rotates from wafer share to optics and 3DFabric, with management supplying 5x AI compute growth at SEMICON Taiwan.1-2Q經濟日報 (UDN Money) tech 2026-08-30 經濟日報 (UDN Money) tech 2026-09-01 經濟日報 (UDN Money) tech 2026-09-01
Peer co-movement
·Korea foundry and memory names moved together on Iran risk-off, not fundamentals - theme beta still runs through the KOSPI complex.0-1QETNews 전자신문 2026-09-01
Nvidia's US$3.5bn into MediaTek fans the same AI dollar to TSMC, ASE and Sigurd - foundry and OSAT re-rate as one basket.1-2QDigiTimes 2026-09-01
One demand counterparty set underwrites the basket: Maia 200 sits on TSMC 3nm alongside the hyperscaler-concentration read-through.2-4QTechNews 科技新報 2026-09-01 readthrough:read-through-crdo-hyperscaler-concentration_v1.md
Terminal / exit-multiple regime
TSMC's implied terminal growth is 2.6% vs 2.5% consensus - the market is not paying an extreme terminal premium for a 73%-share position.1Y+expectations:2330 經濟日報 (UDN Money) tech 2026-08-30
INTC embeds 7.6% implied terminal growth and a 7.4-year value-growth duration vs 5 consensus - a turnaround priced before a customer is named.1Y+expectations:INTC evidence:INTC:intc-ev-0236
005930 embeds -1.4% implied revenue CAGR and 17.7% EBIT margin vs consensus 45.6%/55.8% - a low terminal bar that cuts against the short.1Y+expectations:005930
companies (4)
NameMechanism (claude judgment, cited)Rev-slope
2330Holds 73% pure-play share while the AI dollar migrates into CoWoS and SoIC, where each finished unit carries growing economic value. 經濟日報 (UDN Money) tech 2026-08-30 evidence:2330:2330-ev-0058ACCELERATING
005930Foundry/LSI breakeven pushed to 3Q27 while HBM yields close on SK hynix and group revisions decelerate - the memory leg carries the short's cost. evidence:005930:005930-ev-0399 evidence:005930:005930-ev-0398 slope:005930:EPS FY27 (KRW)DECELERATING
INTC14A defect density falling faster than planned, but internal demand fills capacity to 2028 and equity funds it - technical wins, no external volume. SemiWiki 2026-09-01 evidence:INTC:intc-ev-0237 evidence:INTC:intc-ev-0232DECELERATING
2303EPS revisions accelerating across FY26-28 while revenue revisions decelerate - mature-node margin and mix, not wafer volume, do the earnings work. slope:2303:EPS FY26 (TWD) slope:2303:Revenue FY26 (TWDmn)ACCELERATING
from: DigiTimes, ETNews 전자신문, SemiWiki, TechNews 科技新報, Wccftech (via Google News), 經濟日報 (UDN Money) tech (news flow, section 03 - same triage store)
GAP: No industry model exists for this theme, so foundry capacity, utilisation and node-mix claims rest entirely on company narrative rather than a series - run /ingest-industry Foundry.
GAP: No weighted edge chain links foundry to OSAT and substrate, so the CoPoS panel shift and the ABF substrate shortage cannot be sized - run /edges extract Foundry.
GAP: Intel's 14A defect-density improvement is single-source commentary with no corpus doc behind it, yet it is the load-bearing second-source datapoint - run /deepen-corpus INTC.
GAP: Samsung's broker stance tail stops at 2026-06-10, leaving sentiment on a held short nearly three months stale against a decelerating revision slope - run /process-dump.
China Semis57▲ 17▼ 125·
China's encroachment is landing in memory and tools, not logic: CXMT HBM3E risk output, YMTC at 14% NAND unit share, AMEC's tool-type push - while the Kirin teardown shows the node gap unclosed.
Δ vs prior: Adds the HBM axis and the funding wave - CXMT HBM3E risk production and HKMG into DRAM, plus Enflame and Sunrise raises - while Huawei's 37% profit fall prices the memory crunch back at China.
EPS chain
Revenue
Domestic substitution is converting to volume: Alibaba Cloud guides to fewer Western chips, domestic AI accelerators put at 90% of China 2026 demand.2-4QThe Register 2026-08-21 Tom's Hardware 2026-08-18
CXMT posts an 870% revenue surge and China memory makers a record 1H26, though the source flags not all of that revenue came from chips.0-1QSCMP Tech 2026-08-28 DigiTimes 2026-09-01
Capacity is added ahead of the cycle: XMC guides fourfold growth around 3D integration and silicon photonics, and Nexperia China rebuilt a 12-inch chain.1Y+DigiTimes 2026-09-01 DigiTimes 2026-08-25
Margins
Huawei 1H26 profit fell about 37% with record R&D and the memory crunch cited - input-cost inflation, not demand, is the drag on China's system layer.0-1QTechNews 科技新報 2026-09-01 Bloomberg (tech headlines via Google News) 2026-08-31
Chinese OSAT earnings surge on AI packaging and wafer makers post gains, but recurring profit tells a narrower story - beat quality is unproven.0-1QDigiTimes 2026-09-01 DigiTimes 2026-08-31
China chip profits up 18.5-fold on AI demand, but the aggregate is undecomposed - rate versus mix across the profit pool is not separable here.1-2QDigiTimes 2026-08-28
Shares & BVPS
Primary equity supply is the funding channel, not buybacks: Enflame seeks US$911m in an IPO and Sunrise raises RMB2bn at an RMB20bn valuation.1-2QBloomberg (tech headlines via Google News) 2026-08-31 TechNode 2026-08-31
YMTC is marketing an IPO on a number-one NAND share target for end-2027 - more listed China memory float, with share count set by the raise.1Y+ETNews 전자신문 2026-08-26
Multiple chain
Sentiment
·Sell-side coverage is stale: the only stance vintages in the window are June 2026 Bernstein notes on the two China WFE names, carrying no rating or target.0-1Qstance:002371 stance:688012
The narrative now needs commercial proof, not roadmap: Chinese fabs are buying local tools, testing whether domestic gear holds up in production.2-4QSCMP Tech 2026-09-01
Peer co-movement
The theme trades inverse to the memory incumbents - YMTC at 14% NAND unit share and CXMT DDR5-9000 on an AMD platform are tagged negative for MU and Samsung.2-4QElectronics Weekly 2026-08-14 TrendForce press center 2026-08-18
The restriction leg cuts the other way - a mooted Dutch ban on ASML DUV sales and service into China hits a recurring service annuity, not just shipments.2-4QTrendForce press center 2026-08-25 r/hardware (top of day) 2026-08-22 TechNews 科技新報 2026-08-24
24-month equipment lead times read as backlog strength for the western WFE complex and as a substitution opening for the Chinese toolmakers at the same time.1Y+TrendForce press center 2026-08-19
Terminal / exit-multiple regime
Terminal case rests on policy, not cycle: the 15th five-year plan centres chips and AI, with advanced-node self-sufficiency put at 66% by 2035.1Y+DigiTimes 2026-08-28 DigiTimes 2026-08-28
The exit-multiple cap is the node axis: a TechInsights teardown of Kirin 9030 Pro finds the equipment-generation gap unclosed, so export controls still hold.1Y+TechNews 科技新報 2026-08-30
·A CXMT win against its Pentagon 1260H listing would loosen the China DRAM constraint, so the terminal case carries binary legal optionality.1Y+Bloomberg (tech headlines via Google News) 2026-08-29 SCMP Tech 2026-08-30
companies (4)
NameMechanism (claude judgment, cited)Rev-slope
CXMTNode gap narrowing on three fronts at once - DDR5-9000 validated on an AMD platform, HKMG into DRAM opening 1a, and HBM3E in risk production. TrendForce press center 2026-08-18 TechNews 科技新報 2026-08-28 r/hardware (top of day) 2026-09-01
YMTCTook 14% NAND unit share in Q2 past Micron and Kioxia (Counterpoint) and is marketing an IPO on a number-one share target by end-2027. Electronics Weekly 2026-08-14 ETNews 전자신문 2026-08-26 TechNews 科技新報 2026-08-26
688012Targets 100+ equipment types within five years from 54 today - a breadth push into the localization budget rather than a single-tool share gain. TechNode 2026-08-03 SCMP Tech 2026-09-01 stance:688012
002371Tagged a beneficiary of 24-month western tool lead times, with Chinese fabs already buying local gear - a substitution window, not yet proven in production. TrendForce press center 2026-08-19 SCMP Tech 2026-09-01 stance:002371
from: Bloomberg (tech headlines via Google News), DigiTimes, ETNews 전자신문, Electronics Weekly, SCMP Tech, TechNews 科技新報 +5 (news flow, section 03 - same triage store)
GAP: No revision-slope rows exist for any China Semis name, so every company row ships with a blank slope tag and the earnings-revision leg is unreadable - run /pull-va 688012.
GAP: No exposure or evidence claims back CXMT, YMTC, 688012 or 002371, so every row rests on news items alone with no corpus-grounded mechanism - run /deepen-corpus 688012.
GAP: No industry model for the theme: China WFE localization share, domestic DRAM and NAND bit supply and memory pricing are uninstrumented - run /ingest-industry china-semis.
GAP: Stance coverage is two June 2026 vintages carrying no rating and no target, so the sentiment leg cannot be read as positioning - run /route-broker-mail.
Semi Materials52▲ 9▼ 64·
Price is turning across wafers, substrate and InP at once and SEMI has extended the runway, so the higher-probability read is a multi-quarter reprice, not the spike the capacity wave implies.
Δ vs prior: SEMI's 2028 raise and double-digit materials growth into next year push the demand leg past the prior quarters-not-years window; new capacity is AI-packaging-specific, not generic wafer supply.
EPS chain
Revenue
First broad silicon wafer price rise in over three years across 6, 8 and 12 inch, and brokers expect a further step in 2027 - the tier is taking price.0-1Q經濟日報 (UDN Money) tech 2026-08-24 TechNews 科技新報 2026-08-28
SEMI raises its 2028 equipment outlook and sees double-digit materials growth this year and next - the wafer-start runway behind the price rise extends.1Y+經濟日報 (UDN Money) tech 2026-09-01
Korea CCL exports up 42% and Eternal's July revenue up on advanced-packaging demand - substrate volume is pulling through in prints, not forecasts.0-1QDigiTimes 2026-09-01 DigiTimes 2026-08-26
Margins
Panasonic's September substrate price rise is driven by copper foil and glass cloth costs - a pass-through, so less margin gain than the headline price.0-1QTechNews 科技新報 2026-08-28
The wafer step is a consumable cost line for foundry and memory buyers - their resistance, not new supply, is the nearer-term ceiling on materials margin.1-2QTechNews 科技新報 2026-08-28
Fujifilm's tripled post-CMP line, Taiwan wafer expansions and Indium's build land into the same price curve - incremental margin peaks before volume does.2-4QTheElec (English) 2026-08-27 經濟日報 (UDN Money) tech 2026-08-24 經濟日報 (UDN Money) tech 2026-09-01
Multiple chain
Sentiment
Hana's strategist calls the rotation out of Samsung and SK hynix into Korean materials and equipment names - the sell-side is framing materials as the next leg.1-2QETNews 전자신문 2026-08-16
Brokers turned bullish on SUMCO off an expected price rise rather than a shipped quarter - re-rating running ahead of realised revenue is the fragile half.0-1QTechNews 科技新報 2026-08-28
Applied frames AI energy as the driver of its materials roadmap - the tier is being re-narrated as an AI story, which widens the buyer base and the drawdown.1-2QSemiWiki 2026-08-19 DigiTimes 2026-08-24
Peer co-movement
The group is trading one wafer-and-substrate pricing narrative, so a single price walk-back re-rates every name regardless of its own mix.1-2Q經濟日報 (UDN Money) tech 2026-08-24 TechNews 科技新報 2026-08-28
Advanced-packaging materials names now co-move with AI server capex rather than the wafer-start cycle - a higher-beta anchor than the tier's historical one.2-4QDigiTimes 2026-09-01 DigiTimes 2026-08-26 EE Times Japan (ITmedia) 2026-08-24
Terminal / exit-multiple regime
Localisation builds duplicate regional capacity - a Korea-India China-free plant, Nichias in Hsinchu, a 34-firm Taiwan alliance - cutting terminal utilisation.1Y+DigiTimes 2026-09-01 經濟日報 (UDN Money) tech 2026-08-26 TechNews 科技新報 2026-08-30
China curbs on quartz and germanium price geopolitical risk into consumables the market treated as commodities - non-China supply earns a structural premium.1Y+經濟日報 (UDN Money) tech 2026-08-21 經濟日報 (UDN Money) tech 2026-08-21
SEMI's 2028 raise lengthens the runway an exit multiple discounts, but it is one house's forecast and not an order book - a frame, not a floor.1Y+經濟日報 (UDN Money) tech 2026-09-01
companies (3)
NameMechanism (claude judgment, cited)Rev-slope
1717July revenue rose on advanced-packaging materials demand - pull-through landing in a monthly print, the cleanest realised-volume datapoint this window. DigiTimes 2026-08-26
4901Tripled post-CMP cleaner capacity at Oita for leading-edge materials - capex committed ahead of the wafer-start ramp, so volume is the lever here, not price. TheElec (English) 2026-08-27
011790Its Absolics unit named KCTech sole supplier of glass-substrate CMP tools and slurry - the tooling is signed, the glass-substrate volume behind it is not. TheElec (English) 2026-08-24
from: DigiTimes, EE Times Japan (ITmedia), ETNews 전자신문, SemiWiki, TechNews 科技新報, TheElec (English) +1 (news flow, section 03 - same triage store)
GAP: No revision-slope rows for any Semi Materials name, so the wafer and substrate price turn cannot be tested against estimate momentum - run /pull-va 4063.
GAP: No industry model for the theme, so wafer, copper foil and specialty-gas prices are read off headlines rather than a levels-and-slope series - run /ingest-industry semi-materials.
GAP: No weighted edge chain, so who absorbs the wafer and substrate price rise across materials, foundry and memory is asserted rather than derived - run /edges extract semi-materials.
GAP: No exposure claims for Eternal Materials or SKC, so the AI-packaging revenue share behind both mechanisms is unquantified - run /extract-exposure 1717.
Consumer Electronics117▲ 40▼ 174·
The memory squeeze still moves margin from the device layer to DRAM, but Nvidia's US$3.5bn ECB gives MediaTek a datacenter offset - the set makers absorbing the cost still have none.
Δ vs prior: Prior had only Samsung hedged against the device-layer squeeze; Nvidia's US$3.5bn ECB now gives MediaTek its own non-consumer offset, leaving the set makers as the unhedged layer.
EPS chain
Revenue
Mobile DRAM rose over 80% QoQ in 2Q26 and prices are still rising on CSP capex - the revenue is landing in memory, not in the devices that buy it.0-1Q經濟日報 (UDN Money) tech 2026-08-29 Electronics Weekly 2026-08-27
Samsung locking about 70% of memory output in contracts to 2031 trades spot upside for volume visibility; the price leg is being fixed, not left open.1Y+TechNews 科技新報 2026-09-01 exposure:005930:005930-elast-004
Nvidia's US$3.5bn ECB plus NVLink Fusion and a sold-out RTX Spark give MediaTek a datacenter revenue line that does not depend on the handset cycle.2-4QElectronics Weekly 2026-09-01 TechNews 科技新報 2026-09-01
Margins
Nvidia cut its gross-margin outlook on rising memory cost - the buyer of HBM confirming from the cost side that incremental margin accrues upstream.0-1QTheElec (English) 2026-08-27
Samsung is absorbing the memory cost in MX rather than repricing handsets to chase share, so the device margin hit is a choice, not a pass-through failure.0-1QDigiTimes 2026-08-28
UBS has HBM yields narrowing versus SK hynix, cutting against the cost-disadvantage case, while the LTAs cap the near-80% gross margin the street models.2-4Qevidence:005930:005930-ev-0398 exposure:005930:005930-elast-004 exposure:005930:005930-elast-008
Shares & BVPS
The Nvidia stake is convertible paper - MediaTek priced a US$3.9bn ECB, so the AI partnership is bought with future share count rather than cash.1Y+Electronics Weekly 2026-09-01 DigiTimes 2026-09-01
Samsung's modelled book reaches KRW298,753 BVPS by Q4 FY30 on diluted equity - a rising floor under how far the multiple can compress on a cycle call.1Y+expectations:005930
Multiple chain
Sentiment
Every stance vintage on file for Samsung is Buy or Overweight (Barclays, Bernstein, Citi, UBS, KB, June 2026) - a one-sided book into decelerating revisions.1-2Qstance:005930 slope:005930:EPS FY27 (KRW)
MediaTek's sell-side re-rated within a day of the Nvidia headline, ahead of any shipped datacenter revenue - sentiment is running on the announcement.0-1QDigiTimes 2026-09-01 stance:2454
Peer co-movement
The LTA and shortage flow marks Samsung, SK hynix and Micron as one basket; the device layer that pays those prices trades the other side of the same news.0-1QTechNews 科技新報 2026-09-01 經濟日報 (UDN Money) tech 2026-08-29
One ECB headline moved MediaTek, TSMC, ASE and Sigurd together - the Nvidia supply chain now prices as a single catalyst, not as separate businesses.0-1QDigiTimes 2026-09-01
Hyperscaler concentration is the shared dependency under both legs - the same buyers underwrite MediaTek's ASIC socket and the memory bid.2-4Qreadthrough:read-through-crdo-hyperscaler-concentration_v1.md Electronics Weekly 2026-08-27
Terminal / exit-multiple regime
Samsung's price implies -1.4% revenue CAGR against 45.6% consensus and 17.7% EBIT margin against 55.8% - the tape prices a cycle, not a regime.1Y+expectations:005930
Shortage calls to 2030, contracts to 2031 and UBS undersupply into 2028 argue terminal growth; if they hold, the debate is the exit multiple, not the cycle.1Y+Reuters (tech headlines via Google News) 2026-08-28 TechNews 科技新報 2026-09-01 evidence:005930:005930-ev-0394
Rubin Ultra testing a lower memory configuration is the cleanest terminal risk - HBM content per accelerator is an assumption in the models, not a contract.2-4QTechNews 科技新報 2026-08-29
companies (2)
NameMechanism (claude judgment, cited)Rev-slope
005930DS captures the DRAM reprice while MX absorbs it in handsets; UBS now has Samsung passing SK hynix on 2027 HBM bit share, cutting against the short. DigiTimes 2026-08-28 TechNews 科技新報 2026-09-01 evidence:005930:005930-ev-0397DECELERATING
2454Nvidia's US$3.5bn ECB and NVLink Fusion buy an ASIC socket outside the phone cycle, while Xiaomi's in-house silicon removes merchant SoC sockets underneath it. Electronics Weekly 2026-09-01 TechNews 科技新報 2026-09-01 DigiTimes 2026-08-27DECELERATING
from: DigiTimes, Electronics Weekly, Reuters (tech headlines via Google News), TechNews 科技新報, TheElec (English), 經濟日報 (UDN Money) tech (news flow, section 03 - same triage store)
GAP: MediaTek carries no exposure claims and no evidence rows, so the Nvidia datacenter leg is news-only with nothing cited on ASIC share or socket weight - run /extract-exposure 2454.
GAP: No industry model backs the theme, so the 80% QoQ mobile-DRAM move and the shortage-to-2030 call have no bit supply/demand or ASP series - run /ingest-industry memory.
GAP: The reverse-DCF lens exists only for Samsung; MediaTek has no implied-versus-consensus read, so the long's multiple leg rests on stance vintages - run /init-valuation 2454.
GAP: Watch names 002475 and 6758 carry no news, evidence or revision slopes in this window, so the theme read is only two names wide - run /master-init 002475.
AI / Compute599▲ 84▼ 776·
Nvidia is now buying its way into the custom-silicon lane it competes with, while sellers lock output into contracts, so duration extends but realized price is pre-committed and slopes still fade.
Δ vs prior: Duration is unchanged; what is new is Nvidia paying US$3.5bn to sit inside the ASIC lane and Samsung locking 70% of output, so the fight is the value split, not cycle length.
EPS chain
Revenue
Nvidia pays US$3.5bn into MediaTek and licenses NVLink, so it now earns on non-Nvidia silicon; TSMC, ASE and Sigurd are flagged downstream of the same deal.1Y+DigiTimes 2026-09-01 The Register 2026-09-01 DigiTimes 2026-09-01
TSMC guides AI compute above fivefold a year and silicon photonics past half the market by 2027, with transceiver demand about +50% this year pulling 3DFabric.1Y+經濟日報 (UDN Money) tech 2026-09-01 經濟日報 (UDN Money) tech 2026-09-01
Sellers date the duration while analysts stop chasing it: FY28 revenue slopes decelerated at AMD, AMAT, MediaTek and Yageo, Yageo by 17.9pp.2-4Qslope:AMD:Revenue FY28 (USDmn) slope:AMAT:Revenue FY28 (USDmn) slope:2454:Revenue FY28 (TWDmn)
Margins
Buyers are engineering second sources into HBM: Nvidia specifies custom NVHBM, SK hynix is reported scouting Intel for base die, Samsung an 8-layer HBM4E.2-4QDigiTimes 2026-09-01 DigiTimes 2026-09-01 DigiTimes 2026-09-01
Price is set in contract, not on the tape: Samsung locks 70% of memory output as spot soars while Micron's blended GM peaks on deals struck 1-2 quarters ago.1-2QTechNews 科技新報 2026-09-01 evidence:MU:mu-ev-0065 evidence:MU:mu-ev-0042
Passives hold list flat into a rising cost base: Murata calls its only shift cost-driven on materials and subcontracting, and weighs no data-centre hike.2-4Qevidence:6981:6981-ev-0098 evidence:6981:6981-ev-0097
Shares & BVPS
MediaTek funds the Nvidia tie-up with a US$3.9bn equity-linked ECB, so the custom-silicon roadmap is bought with future share count rather than cash.1Y+DigiTimes 2026-09-01
AMD's buyback disclosure vanished from the Q2 FY26 CFO script after appearing every prior call, so the share-count offset to the Instinct ramp went dark.1-2Qevidence:AMD:amd-ev-0035
Onto's GAAP EPS fell YoY on amortisation despite revenue +22.1%; book compounds to a modelled US$66.33 BVPS by Q4 FY28 with Rigaku held unconsolidated.1Y+evidence:ONTO:onto-ev-0033 evidence:ONTO:onto-ev-0034
Multiple chain
Sentiment
MediaTek jumped 10% on the Nvidia stake and brokers moved the same day, so the theme is re-rating on partnership news well ahead of delivered numbers.0-1QDigiTimes 2026-09-01 TechNews 科技新報 2026-09-01
Positioning is read off stale marks: MediaTek and Samsung stance rows stop in June, TSMC's tail runs to 2024 and Murata's carry TBD ratings.1-2Qstance:2454 stance:005930 stance:2330
Macro is re-entering the tape independent of the AI flow: KOSPI opened lower on renewed US-Iran strikes with Samsung off about 1%.0-1QETNews 전자신문 2026-09-01
Peer co-movement
The Nvidia dollar fans out unevenly: the ECB print flags TSMC, ASE and Sigurd downstream while MediaTek takes the whole 10% move.0-1QDigiTimes 2026-09-01
Intel is being pulled into the cohort from both ends, with 14A defect density reportedly falling faster than plan and SK hynix scouting it for HBM4E base die.2-4QSemiWiki 2026-09-01 DigiTimes 2026-09-01
The WFE cohort stopped moving as one: Onto's FY27 EPS slope accelerated 14.1pp while AMAT's decelerated 5.1pp and MKS's 8.7pp on the same demand.1-2Qslope:ONTO:EPS FY27 (USD) slope:AMAT:EPS FY27 (USD) slope:MKSI:EPS FY27 (USD)
Terminal / exit-multiple regime
Duration is bought in equipment and test, refused in memory: Lam implies about 12 years of value growth vs 4, Advantest 16, Micron negative terminal growth.1Y+expectations:LRCX expectations:6857 expectations:MU
CXMT's LPDDR6 claim attacks the exit multiple, not the quarter: domestic China DRAM is exactly the supply the memory terminal case assumes away.1Y+r/hardware (top of day) 2026-09-01
TSMC prices as growth with no regime bet: implied revenue CAGR, margin and terminal growth sit within about 2pp of consensus as it guides 5x AI compute.1Y+expectations:2330 經濟日報 (UDN Money) tech 2026-09-01 經濟日報 (UDN Money) tech 2026-09-01
companies (23)
NameMechanism (claude judgment, cited)Rev-slope
2454Nvidia takes US$3.5bn of a US$3.9bn ECB and links NVLink Fusion; the RTX Spark platform sold out pre-launch with Asus and MSI chasing allocation. DigiTimes 2026-09-01 TechNews 科技新報 2026-09-01 slope:2454:EPS FY28 (TWD)DECELERATING
2330Guides AI compute above fivefold a year and silicon photonics past half the market by 2027, and enters Kaohsiung Baipu to build a packaging equipment chain. 經濟日報 (UDN Money) tech 2026-09-01 經濟日報 (UDN Money) tech 2026-09-01 經濟日報 (UDN Money) tech 2026-09-01ACCELERATING
005930Cover risk builds: 70% of memory output locked as HBM spot soars, an HBM5/zHBM roadmap at 2x and 8x, and a reported 8-layer HBM4E aimed at Nvidia NVHBM. TechNews 科技新報 2026-09-01 Tom's Hardware 2026-09-01 DigiTimes 2026-09-01DECELERATING
6981Japanese capacitor shipments rose 22% in 1H26 on AI servers, yet no data-centre list hike is contemplated and about half of that MLCC is still general-purpose. DigiTimes 2026-09-01 evidence:6981:6981-ev-0097 evidence:6981:6981-ev-0099STABLE
MUC2027 called tighter than C2026 with under half of data-centre demand filled, but blended GM peaks as agreements priced 1-2 quarters ago roll in. evidence:MU:mu-ev-0063 evidence:MU:mu-ev-0065 evidence:MU:mu-ev-0068DECELERATING
AMATDeclares four 3D-scaling technologies ready with materials aimed at HBM and CPO, on an October guide of $10.25bn vs street $9.62bn and packaging above 70% YoY. TheElec (English) 2026-09-01 evidence:AMAT:amat-ev-0585 evidence:AMAT:amat-ev-0589DECELERATING
ASMLHigh NA EUV reaches its first high-volume logic product and the FY28 EPS slope accelerates; the bear leg stays 3D DRAM requiring zero EUV in the cell. DigiTimes 2026-09-01 slope:ASML:EPS FY28 (EUR) exposure:ASML:asml-elast-033ACCELERATING
6857TSMC's silicon-photonics push lands on a tester whose SiPh solution is already HBM and CPO HVM-ready, with die-layer probing now a stated requirement. 經濟日報 (UDN Money) tech 2026-09-01 evidence:6857:6857-ev-0226 evidence:6857:6857-ev-0227ACCELERATING
LRCXTaiwan clears an NT$9.835bn injection into its Taiwan unit for advanced-process tool R&D; the multiple already implies about 12 years of value growth vs 4. 經濟日報 (UDN Money) tech 2026-09-01 expectations:LRCXSTABLE
2327A TDK insider puts industry book-to-bill above 2.0 on rampant double-ordering while Yageo holds about 90% of its AI-server MLCC in its own warehouses. evidence:2327:2327-ev-0151 evidence:2327:2327-ev-0153 slope:2327:EPS FY28 (TWD)DECELERATING
6762Record Japanese capacitor shipments lift the cover risk, but AI is only 10-20% of TDK's MLCC mix and it tops out at 10uF on 0402 against Murata's 47uF. TechNews 科技新報 2026-09-01 evidence:6762:6762-ev-0366 evidence:6762:6762-ev-0367ACCELERATING
AVGONvidia buying MediaTek ASIC capability and licensing NVLink attacks the merchant-custom lane from above, and the ASIC series has been stale since June. DigiTimes 2026-09-01 The Register 2026-09-01 industry:ai-accelerators:AI ASIC Revenue (USDmn)DECELERATING
MRVLConnectivity leads the $1.5bn FY28 raise to about $18bn, scale-up optics tracks above the prior $300m plan and OM guides into 38-40% by Q4. evidence:MRVL:mrvl-ev-0070 evidence:MRVL:mrvl-ev-0073 evidence:MRVL:mrvl-ev-0075DECELERATING
ONTOAdvanced nodes +50% QoQ took non-GAAP OM to 30% two quarters early; GAAP EPS still fell YoY on amortisation with the 27% Rigaku stake unconsolidated. evidence:ONTO:onto-ev-0031 evidence:ONTO:onto-ev-0032 evidence:ONTO:onto-ev-0033ACCELERATING
ASMISpares and services +28% YoY cc on high fab utilisation and customer advances +34%, with memory mix guided back-half loaded on HBM-related DRAM. evidence:ASMI:asmi-ev-0075 evidence:ASMI:asmi-ev-0077 evidence:ASMI:asmi-ev-0076ACCELERATING
AMDData centre more than doubled YoY, but the Helios gross-margin path has been deflected four straight calls and the buyback line left the Q2 script. evidence:AMD:amd-ev-0029 evidence:AMD:amd-ev-0034 evidence:AMD:amd-ev-0035DECELERATING
MKSIElectronics and packaging +43.2% YoY beat the guide high end, yet the Q3 GM guide of 47.0% sits under the 47.6% delivered and the convertible stays current. evidence:MKSI:mksi-ev-0040 evidence:MKSI:mksi-ev-0041 evidence:MKSI:mksi-ev-0042DECELERATING
3533Eighth consecutive quarterly OM decline to 21.97% as admin +61.1% and R&D +36.1% YoY outrun a +2.6% QoQ print, with inventory +58.7% YoY and input-led. evidence:3533:3533-ev-0048 evidence:3533:3533-ev-0051 evidence:3533:3533-ev-0052STABLE
CBRSBeat-and-raise into 23.6%-of-float short interest, against an expert read putting fast inference under 10% of demand and weights-on-SRAM as not defensible. evidence:CBRS:cbrs-ev-0198 evidence:CBRS:cbrs-ev-0200 evidence:CBRS:cbrs-ev-0201
8035Cryo-etch is guided to ramp in 2026 at 400-plus-layer NAND, but the multiple implies a 61% EBIT margin against 35% and a 44% revenue CAGR against 19%. exposure:8035:8035-elast-002 expectations:8035 slope:8035:EPS FY27 (JPY)DECELERATING
TERTest intensity rises directly with packaging and HBM stacking and slopes accelerate, but the multiple implies a 69% revenue CAGR against 15% consensus. exposure:TER:ter-elast-001 expectations:TER slope:TER:EPS FY27 (USD)ACCELERATING
KLACSlopes sit flat while the reverse-DCF implies a -18% revenue CAGR and 12.8% EBIT margin against 21% and 48% consensus, a discount no corpus datapoint backs. expectations:KLAC slope:KLAC:EPS FY27 (USD)STABLE
ARMMemory is redirecting capacity away from handsets, feeding the 20%-units to 1-2%-royalty sensitivity while the multiple implies a 99% revenue CAGR vs 46%. exposure:ARM:arm-elast-005 exposure:MU:mu-elast-017 expectations:ARMDECELERATING
from: DigiTimes, ETNews 전자신문, SemiWiki, TechNews 科技新報, The Register, TheElec (English) +3 (news flow, section 03 - same triage store)
GAP: Every industry model stops at 2026-06-28, so TSMC's fivefold AI-compute guide and the 2027 silicon-photonics call sit in no series - run /ingest-industry ai-accelerators.
GAP: The bundle surfaces 40 of 1,459 triaged items and every surfaced item is dated 2026-09-01, so the 30-day arc behind these counts is invisible - run /pull-news.
GAP: Intel drives two of this window's biggest reads, 14A defect density and HBM4E base die, but is not a universe row, so the second-source case has no store - run /onboard INTC watch.
GAP: KLAC, ASML, ARM, AVGO, LRCX, 8035 and TER carry zero evidence entries this window, so their reads rest on reverse-DCF gaps and revision slopes alone - run /thesis backfill KLAC.
Are the scenarios tracking
04b

Living scenarios - bull / base / bear vs the tape

The living scenario docs (/bull-base-bear): per scope, which scenario the realized data is nearest on each driver, which dated signposts have tripped or expired, and the next one due. Counts and dates from bbb_track.py; the which-scenario-is-winning read is yours.

Each scenario doc froze a driver tree with three dated paths and machine-resolvable signposts. The tracker overlays every actual that landed since (annual levels on the path, a half or quarter by its YoY against the path's YoY), counts which scenario each driver is nearest, and marks signposts tripped or expired. Counts and dates only - the read is yours.

Scenario docPlayersNearest scenario by driver (tracker)Signposts
Memory complex - Micron, SK Hynix and Samsung: industry and player bull/base/bear (v8)
v10 · 2026-09-01 · 3d · sidecar v1 - re-run to contract v2
-tracker not run - python scripts/bbb_track.py theme-memory--players-MU-000660-0059300 pending
MLCC Industry - bull / base / bear on low/high-end ASP, low/high-end units and supply additions (2026E-2030E)
v1 · 2026-08-28 · 7d · sidecar v1 - re-run to contract v2
-tracker not run - python scripts/bbb_track.py theme-mlcc0 pending
MLCC + Murata + SEMCO - industry and player scenario cases (v10)
v10 · 2026-09-03 · 1d
6981, 009150industry: bull 0 / base 0 / bear 0 (no data 7) · player:6981: bull 0 / base 0 / bear 0 (no data 6) · player:009150: bull 0 / base 0 / bear 0 (no data 5)18 pending
next due 2027-02-28
What's waiting on me
05

Decision queue

Everything waiting on YOUR judgment. Each row names the command that clears it - oldest first.

179 open decision(s) (0 held by your standing snoozes/dismissals) - the numbered rows are this morning's brief; reply decide N ack | snooze 7d | dismiss "why" | read | promote | veto ids "why" | reject "why" | adjudicate | hit | missed | retry - falsify stays CLI-only on the standup thread, /decide in chat, or click the board.

+179 more open decision(s), same ranking
#TierKindNameWhy it mattersStateMy recommendationReply / CLI
T1adjudicate3533 longlong; 5 auto-promoted claim(s) never adjudicated (oldest 2026-08-17); prints 2026-11-06 (63d)carried 1d
no analyst read yet
T1watch3533 longrisk 3533-th-004: a named risk confirming (2+ confirms in 90 days), first crossed 2026-08-18, fired 1x (last 2026-08-18)carried 1d
no analyst read yet
T1watch3533 longrisk 3533-th-005: a named risk confirming (2+ confirms in 90 days), first crossed 2026-08-18, fired 1x (last 2026-08-18)carried 1d
no analyst read yet
T1divergence3533 longdivergence fired 2026-09-03 (long, w20: adverse excess vs peers >= 8pp AND persistence >= 60%) - the nightly shift's reconcile-gap lane writes the report; your only call is to hold itnew 0d
no decision needed - the analyst shift reconciles it; snooze to hold (analyst lane)
T1falsify?6976 longfalsification check 2026-09-03: 6976-th-004 APPROACHING - settles by Q2 FY27 print 2026-11-05 - the second consecutive OP beat with gross-margin expansion, and whether bear-house PTs re-rate above ~JPY8,000new 0d
APPROACHING: recommended adjudicate - Q2 FY27 print 2026-11-05 - the second consecutive OP beat with gross-margin expansion, and whether bear-house PTs re-rate above ~JPY8,000 (falsification check v1 2026-09-03)
T1falsify?6976 longfalsification check 2026-09-03: 6976-th-006 APPROACHING - settles by FY27 delivered OP margin vs the 10.6% guide, plus whether the FY2030 plan is re-based at the May 2027 resultsnew 0d
APPROACHING: recommended adjudicate - FY27 delivered OP margin vs the 10.6% guide, plus whether the FY2030 plan is re-based at the May 2027 results (falsification check v1 2026-09-03)
T1exposure6976 long3 staged exposure claim(s) awaiting promote / vetocarried 1d
promote all 3 (no veto rule fired) (staged-vs-active facts)
T1watch6976 longrisk 6976-th-006: a named risk confirming (2+ confirms in 90 days), first crossed 2026-07-08, fired 3x (last 2026-08-19)carried 1d
6976-th-006 APPROACHING - settles by FY27 delivered OP margin vs the 10.6% guide, plus whether the FY2030 plan is re-based at the May 2027 results; recommended adjudicate (falsification check v1 2026-09-03)
T1divergence6976 longdivergence fired 2026-08-26 (long, w60: adverse excess vs peers >= 15pp AND persistence >= 55%) - the nightly shift's reconcile-gap lane writes the report; your only call is to hold itcarried 1d
no decision needed - the analyst shift reconciles it; snooze to hold (analyst lane)
T1read6976 longnew thesis-checks report 2026-09-03 - No kill condition is met: the FX-dependency risk claim is freshly confirmed with ~58% of the FY27 OP raise coming from the yen assumption, while the AI-server torque claim cannot be tested at all - 6976 discloses no AI-server sales line.new 0d
no analyst read yet
open report
T1exposure6981 long6 staged exposure claim(s) awaiting promote / vetocarried 1d
promote all 6 (no veto rule fired) (staged-vs-active facts)
T1watch6981 longsupporting 6981-th-003: challenge accretion (2+ challenges in 90 days), first crossed 2026-07-10, fired 3x (last 2026-08-21)carried 1d
no analyst read yet
T1watch6981 longrisk 6981-th-005: a named risk confirming (2+ confirms in 90 days), first crossed 2026-07-11, fired 3x (last 2026-08-22)carried 1d
no analyst read yet
T1watch6981 longcore 6981-th-002: challenge accretion (2+ challenges in 90 days), first crossed 2026-07-18, fired 3x (last 2026-08-29)carried 1d
no analyst read yet
T1divergence6981 longdivergence fired 2026-09-03 (long, w20: adverse excess vs peers >= 8pp AND persistence >= 60%) - the nightly shift's reconcile-gap lane writes the report; your only call is to hold itnew 0d
no decision needed - the analyst shift reconciles it; snooze to hold (analyst lane)
T1adjudicateAMAT longlong; 6 auto-promoted claim(s) never adjudicated (oldest 2026-07-18); prints 2026-11-12 (69d)carried 1d
no analyst read yet
T1watchAMAT longcore amat-th-002: challenge accretion (2+ challenges in 90 days), first crossed 2026-08-19, fired 1x (last 2026-08-19)carried 1d
no analyst read yet
T1watchAMAT longrisk amat-th-004: a named risk confirming (2+ confirms in 90 days), first crossed 2026-08-19, fired 1x (last 2026-08-19)carried 1d
no analyst read yet
T1readAMAT longearnings-review review_FY26Q3_v5.md - MATERIAL CHALLENGE - A 6-9% beat-and-raise the market rejected: consensus FY27 EPS rose 5.7%, yet the stock has fallen 18% against a sector down 9% and the forward multiple 20% - most of the de-rate the bear claim named, without the estimate cut it named as trigger.new 0d
no analyst read yet
open report
T1readAMAT longearnings-review review_FY26Q3_v4.md - MATERIAL CHALLENGE - A 6-9% beat-and-raise the market rejected: consensus FY27 EPS rose 5.7%, the largest impulse on record, while the multiple compressed 8.5% in one session on a flat sector tape - and nine-month free cash flow fell 2% despite net income up 44%.new 0d
no analyst read yet
open report
T1watchASML shortcore asml-th-001: challenge accretion (2+ challenges in 90 days), first crossed 2026-07-18, fired 3x (last 2026-08-29)carried 1d
no analyst read yet
T1watchASML shortcore asml-th-002: challenge accretion (2+ challenges in 90 days), first crossed 2026-07-18, fired 3x (last 2026-08-29)carried 1d
no analyst read yet
T1watchASML shortcore asml-th-003: challenge accretion (2+ challenges in 90 days), first crossed 2026-07-18, fired 3x (last 2026-08-29)carried 1d
no analyst read yet
T1watchASML shortrisk asml-th-004: a named risk confirming (2+ confirms in 90 days), first crossed 2026-07-18, fired 3x (last 2026-08-29)carried 1d
no analyst read yet
T1watchASML shortrisk asml-th-005: a named risk confirming (2+ confirms in 90 days), first crossed 2026-07-18, fired 3x (last 2026-08-29)carried 1d
no analyst read yet
T1watchASML shortcore asml-th-006: challenge accretion (2+ challenges in 90 days), first crossed 2026-07-18, fired 3x (last 2026-08-29)carried 1d
no analyst read yet
T1divergenceASML shortdivergence fired 2026-09-02 (short, w20: adverse excess vs peers >= 8pp AND persistence >= 60%) - the nightly shift's reconcile-gap lane writes the report; your only call is to hold itcarried 1d
no decision needed - the analyst shift reconciles it; snooze to hold (analyst lane)
T1adjudicateAVGO longlong; 6 auto-promoted claim(s) never adjudicated (oldest 2026-08-17); prints 2026-12-09 (96d)carried 1d
no analyst read yet
T1exposureAVGO long17 staged exposure claim(s) awaiting promote / vetonew 0d
promote 14 / veto 3 - vetoes: avgo-cust-038 (duplicates an active claim); avgo-cust-040 (duplicates an active claim); avgo-cust-041 (duplicates an active claim) (staged-vs-active facts)
T1watchAVGO longcore avgo-th-002: challenge accretion (2+ challenges in 90 days), first crossed 2026-08-18, fired 1x (last 2026-08-18)carried 1d
no analyst read yet
T1watchAVGO longsupporting avgo-th-003: challenge accretion (2+ challenges in 90 days), first crossed 2026-08-18, fired 1x (last 2026-08-18)carried 1d
no analyst read yet
T1watchAVGO longrisk avgo-th-005: a named risk confirming (2+ confirms in 90 days), first crossed 2026-08-18, fired 1x (last 2026-08-18)carried 1d
no analyst read yet
T1adjudicateBE longlong; 6 auto-promoted claim(s) never adjudicated (oldest 2026-08-03); prints 2026-10-26 (52d)carried 1d
no analyst read yet
T1watchBE longcore be-th-002: challenge accretion (2+ challenges in 90 days), first crossed 2026-08-04, fired 2x (last 2026-08-25)carried 1d
no analyst read yet
T1watchBE longrisk be-th-004: a named risk confirming (2+ confirms in 90 days), first crossed 2026-08-04, fired 2x (last 2026-08-25)carried 1d
no analyst read yet
T1watchBE longrisk be-th-005: a named risk confirming (2+ confirms in 90 days), first crossed 2026-08-04, fired 2x (last 2026-08-25)carried 1d
no analyst read yet
T1watchBE longrisk be-th-006: a named risk confirming (2+ confirms in 90 days), first crossed 2026-08-04, fired 2x (last 2026-08-25)carried 1d
no analyst read yet
T1divergenceBE longdivergence fired 2026-08-31 (long, w60: adverse excess vs peers >= 15pp AND persistence >= 55%) - the nightly shift's reconcile-gap lane writes the report; your only call is to hold itcarried 1d
no decision needed - the analyst shift reconciles it; snooze to hold (analyst lane)
T1exposureCRDO long11 staged exposure claim(s) awaiting promote / vetonew 0d
promote 6 / veto 5 - vetoes: crdo-cust-322 (duplicates an active claim); crdo-cust-323 (duplicates an active claim); crdo-cust-324 (duplicates an active claim); crdo-cust-325 (duplicates an active claim) (staged-vs-active facts)
T1watchCRDO longrisk crdo-th-005: a named risk confirming (2+ confirms in 90 days), first crossed 2026-07-11, fired 3x (last 2026-08-22)carried 1d
no analyst read yet
T1watchCRDO longcore crdo-th-001: challenge accretion (2+ challenges in 90 days), first crossed 2026-08-09, fired 2x (last 2026-08-30)carried 1d
no analyst read yet
T1watchCRDO longcore crdo-th-002: challenge accretion (2+ challenges in 90 days), first crossed 2026-08-09, fired 2x (last 2026-08-30)carried 1d
no analyst read yet
T1watchCRDO longsupporting crdo-th-004: challenge accretion (2+ challenges in 90 days), first crossed 2026-08-09, fired 2x (last 2026-08-30)carried 1d
no analyst read yet
T1watchCRDO longcore crdo-th-003: challenge accretion (2+ challenges in 90 days), first crossed 2026-08-31, fired 1x (last 2026-08-31)carried 1d
no analyst read yet
T1readCRDO longinit-valuation valuation_scan_v9.md - MATERIAL CHALLENGE - Credo fell 29% in four sessions on a beat-and-raise; at $165 the reverse-DCF still implies a 77% revenue CAGR against 55% consensus, and the band engine's own current multiples are stuck at pre-crash levels.new 0d
no analyst read yet
open report
T1readCRDO longinit-financials financial_scan_v9.md - MATERIAL CHALLENGE - FY26 shows a violent GAAP inflection (revenue +206% to $1.34bn, EBIT margin 33.3%, ROIC 66%), but the store is a full print behind and the first FY27 quarter cut GAAP gross margin to 64.5% on acquisition accounting.new 0d
no analyst read yet
open report
T1readCRDO longearnings-review review_FY27Q1_v3.md - MATERIAL NEW DATA - Credo beat, raised, and lost a fifth of its value. FY27 consensus revenue rose 1.0% while the multiple went 33.5x to 26.4x, so the de-rate is pure credibility - and the revision impulse has collapsed from +31% to +1% in four prints.new 0d
no analyst read yet
open report
T1readCRDO longearnings-review review_FY27Q1_v2.md - INCREMENTAL - Credo beat, raised, and lost a fifth of its value. FY27 consensus revenue rose 1.0% while the multiple went 33.5x to 26.4x, so the de-rate is pure credibility - and the revision impulse has collapsed from +31% to +1% in four prints.new 0d
no analyst read yet
open report
T1readCRDO longearnings-review review_FY27Q1_v1.md - MATERIAL CHALLENGE - Credo beat, raised, and lost a fifth of its value. FY27 consensus revenue rose 1.0% while the multiple went 33.5x to 26.4x, so the de-rate is pure credibility - and the revision impulse has collapsed from +31% to +1% in four prints.new 0d
no analyst read yet
open report
T1adjudicateKLAC longlong; 6 auto-promoted claim(s) never adjudicated (oldest 2026-08-17); prints 2026-10-27 (53d)carried 1d
no analyst read yet
T1watchKLAC longcore klac-th-001: challenge accretion (2+ challenges in 90 days), first crossed 2026-07-29, fired 2x (last 2026-08-19)carried 1d
no analyst read yet
T1watchKLAC longcore klac-th-002: challenge accretion (2+ challenges in 90 days), first crossed 2026-07-29, fired 2x (last 2026-08-19)carried 1d
no analyst read yet
T1watchKLAC longsupporting klac-th-003: challenge accretion (2+ challenges in 90 days), first crossed 2026-07-29, fired 2x (last 2026-08-19)carried 1d
no analyst read yet
T1watchKLAC longrisk klac-th-004: a named risk confirming (2+ confirms in 90 days), first crossed 2026-07-29, fired 2x (last 2026-08-19)carried 1d
no analyst read yet
T1watchKLAC longrisk klac-th-005: a named risk confirming (2+ confirms in 90 days), first crossed 2026-08-17, fired 1x (last 2026-08-17)carried 1d
no analyst read yet
T1divergenceKLAC longdivergence fired 2026-08-27 (long, w20: adverse excess vs peers >= 8pp AND persistence >= 60%) - the nightly shift's reconcile-gap lane writes the report; your only call is to hold itcarried 1d
no decision needed - the analyst shift reconciles it; snooze to hold (analyst lane)
T1adjudicateMRVL longlong; 5 auto-promoted claim(s) never adjudicated (oldest 2026-08-17); prints 2026-11-26 (83d)carried 1d
no analyst read yet
T1watchMRVL longcore mrvl-th-001: challenge accretion (2+ challenges in 90 days), first crossed 2026-08-17, fired 1x (last 2026-08-17)carried 1d
no analyst read yet
T1watchMRVL longrisk mrvl-th-004: a named risk confirming (2+ confirms in 90 days), first crossed 2026-08-31, fired 1x (last 2026-08-31)carried 1d
no analyst read yet
T1watchMRVL longsupporting mrvl-th-006: challenge accretion (2+ challenges in 90 days), first crossed 2026-08-31, fired 1x (last 2026-08-31)carried 1d
no analyst read yet
T1readMRVL longdrift drift_v1.md - MATERIAL CHALLENGE - Across four calls Marvell's product-line forward disclosure collapsed from about 13 numbers a call to two, while corporate guidance got more precise - and the demand-cover language under the largest FY28 claim degraded from purchase orders to management judgement.new 0d
no analyst read yet
open report
T1readMRVL longearnings-review review_FY27Q2_v3.md - MATERIAL CHALLENGE - Marvell beat on revenue and raised FY28 to roughly $18bn, yet fell 10.3% - the FY28 raise arrives at a gross margin management now guides flat, and the out-year is where the earnings conversion breaks down.new 0d
no analyst read yet
open report
T1adjudicateMU longlong; 2 auto-promoted claim(s) never adjudicated (oldest 2026-08-17); prints 2026-09-21 (17d)carried 1d
no analyst read yet
T1watchMU longrisk mu-th-004: a named risk confirming (2+ confirms in 90 days), first crossed 2026-08-17, fired 1x (last 2026-08-17)carried 1d
no analyst read yet
T1watchMU longcore mu-th-001: challenge accretion (2+ challenges in 90 days), first crossed 2026-09-01, fired 1x (last 2026-09-01)carried 1d
no analyst read yet
T1watchMU longcore mu-th-002: challenge accretion (2+ challenges in 90 days), first crossed 2026-09-01, fired 1x (last 2026-09-01)carried 1d
no analyst read yet
T1watchMU longrisk mu-th-005: a named risk confirming (2+ confirms in 90 days), first crossed 2026-09-01, fired 1x (last 2026-09-01)carried 1d
no analyst read yet
T1readMU longinit-valuation valuation_scan_v6.md - MATERIAL CHALLENGE - The peer bands answer what the last run could not: SK hynix and Samsung sit at the 1.2nd and 1.4th percentile of their own forward-P/E history against Micron's 11.0th, so the peak-earnings discount is the whole memory complex.new 0d
no analyst read yet
open report
T1adjudicateONTO longlong; 6 auto-promoted claim(s) never adjudicated (oldest 2026-08-17); prints 2026-10-29 (55d)carried 1d
no analyst read yet
T1watchONTO longrisk onto-th-006: a named risk confirming (2+ confirms in 90 days), first crossed 2026-08-17, fired 1x (last 2026-08-17)carried 1d
no analyst read yet
T1watchONTO longcore onto-th-003: no hard evidence in 120 days, first crossed 2026-09-03, fired 1x (last 2026-09-03)carried 1d
no analyst read yet
T1adjudicateRBRK longlong; 4 auto-promoted claim(s) never adjudicated (oldest 2026-08-17); prints 2026-12-03 (90d)carried 1d
no analyst read yet
T1watchRBRK longcore rbrk-th-002: challenge accretion (2+ challenges in 90 days), first crossed 2026-08-17, fired 1x (last 2026-08-17)carried 1d
no analyst read yet
T1watchRBRK longrisk rbrk-th-004: a named risk confirming (2+ confirms in 90 days), first crossed 2026-08-17, fired 1x (last 2026-08-17)carried 1d
no analyst read yet
T1watchRBRK longcore rbrk-th-001: challenge accretion (2+ challenges in 90 days), first crossed 2026-09-01, fired 1x (last 2026-09-01)carried 1d
no analyst read yet
T1watchRBRK longsupporting rbrk-th-003: challenge accretion (2+ challenges in 90 days), first crossed 2026-09-01, fired 1x (last 2026-09-01)carried 1d
no analyst read yet
T1watchRBRK longsupporting rbrk-th-006: challenge accretion (2+ challenges in 90 days), first crossed 2026-09-01, fired 1x (last 2026-09-01)carried 1d
no analyst read yet
T1watchRBRK longrisk rbrk-th-007: a named risk confirming (2+ confirms in 90 days), first crossed 2026-09-01, fired 1x (last 2026-09-01)carried 1d
no analyst read yet
T1readRBRK longearnings-review review_FY27Q2_v1.md - MATERIAL CHALLENGE - Rubrik beat every guided line and raised all five FY27 guides, clearing consensus on revenue and EPS - yet fell 13%, because cloud net-new ARR ran at 20% versus 35% total and the Identity ARR disclosure vanished.new 0d
no analyst read yet
open report
T1watchTER longcore ter-th-002: no hard evidence in 120 days, first crossed 2026-08-28, fired 1x (last 2026-08-28)carried 1d
no analyst read yet
T1divergenceTER longdivergence fired 2026-09-01 (long, w20: adverse excess vs peers >= 8pp AND persistence >= 60%) - the nightly shift's reconcile-gap lane writes the report; your only call is to hold itcarried 1d
no decision needed - the analyst shift reconciles it; snooze to hold (analyst lane)
T3watch005930 shortrisk 005930-th-005: a named risk confirming (2+ confirms in 90 days), first crossed 2026-07-25, fired 2x (last 2026-08-15)carried 1d
no analyst read yet
T3watch005930 shortcore 005930-th-001: challenge accretion (2+ challenges in 90 days), first crossed 2026-07-28, fired 2x (last 2026-08-18)carried 1d
no analyst read yet
T3watch005930 shortcore 005930-th-002: challenge accretion (2+ challenges in 90 days), first crossed 2026-07-28, fired 2x (last 2026-08-18)carried 1d
no analyst read yet
T3watch005930 shortsupporting 005930-th-003: challenge accretion (2+ challenges in 90 days), first crossed 2026-07-28, fired 2x (last 2026-09-01)carried 1d
no analyst read yet
T3watch005930 shortrisk 005930-th-006: a named risk confirming (2+ confirms in 90 days), first crossed 2026-07-28, fired 2x (last 2026-09-01)carried 1d
no analyst read yet
T3adjudicate2327 longlong; 5 auto-promoted claim(s) never adjudicated (oldest 2026-07-18); prints 2026-10-22 (48d)carried 1d
no analyst read yet
T3watch2327 longcore 2327-th-003: challenge accretion (2+ challenges in 90 days), first crossed 2026-07-29, fired 2x (last 2026-08-19)carried 1d
no analyst read yet
T3watch2327 longrisk 2327-th-005: a named risk confirming (2+ confirms in 90 days), first crossed 2026-07-29, fired 2x (last 2026-08-19)carried 1d
no analyst read yet
T3watch2327 longcore 2327-th-002: challenge accretion (2+ challenges in 90 days), first crossed 2026-08-15, fired 1x (last 2026-08-15)carried 1d
no analyst read yet
T3adjudicate2330 longlong; 5 auto-promoted claim(s) never adjudicated (oldest 2026-08-17); prints 2026-10-15 (41d)carried 1d
no analyst read yet
T3exposure2330 long2 staged exposure claim(s) awaiting promote / vetocarried 1d
promote 1 / veto 1 - vetoes: 2330-cust-021 (duplicates an active claim) (staged-vs-active facts)
T3exposure6762 short11 staged exposure claim(s) awaiting promote / vetocarried 1d
promote all 11 (no veto rule fired) (staged-vs-active facts)
T3watch6762 shortcore 6762-th-003: challenge accretion (2+ challenges in 90 days), first crossed 2026-08-01, fired 2x (last 2026-08-22)carried 1d
no analyst read yet
T3watch6762 shortcore 6762-th-005: no hard evidence in 120 days, first crossed 2026-08-01, fired 2x (last 2026-08-22)carried 1d
no analyst read yet
T3watch6762 shortrisk 6762-th-006: a named risk confirming (2+ confirms in 90 days), first crossed 2026-08-01, fired 2x (last 2026-08-22)carried 1d
no analyst read yet
T3watch6857 longcore 6857-th-002: no hard evidence in 120 days, first crossed 2026-08-26, fired 1x (last 2026-08-26)carried 1d
no analyst read yet
T3adjudicate8035 longlong; 5 auto-promoted claim(s) never adjudicated (oldest 2026-07-18); prints 2026-10-30 (56d)carried 1d
no analyst read yet
T3waypoint8035 longwaypoint 8035-th-001-wp-1 on 8035-th-001 due 2026-07-31 - hit or missed?carried 1d
no analyst read yet
T3watch8035 longcore 8035-th-001: challenge accretion (2+ challenges in 90 days), first crossed 2026-07-27, fired 2x (last 2026-08-17)carried 1d
no analyst read yet
T3watch8035 longcore 8035-th-002: challenge accretion (2+ challenges in 90 days), first crossed 2026-07-27, fired 2x (last 2026-08-17)carried 1d
no analyst read yet
T3watch8035 longcore 8035-th-003: challenge accretion (2+ challenges in 90 days), first crossed 2026-07-27, fired 2x (last 2026-08-17)carried 1d
no analyst read yet
T3watch8035 longrisk 8035-th-004: a named risk confirming (2+ confirms in 90 days), first crossed 2026-07-27, fired 2x (last 2026-08-17)carried 1d
no analyst read yet
T3watch8035 longrisk 8035-th-005: a named risk confirming (2+ confirms in 90 days), first crossed 2026-07-27, fired 2x (last 2026-08-17)carried 1d
no analyst read yet
T3readARM longnew reconciliations report 2026-09-03new 0d
no analyst read yet
open report
T3watchCBRS shortcore cbrs-th-001: challenge accretion (2+ challenges in 90 days), first crossed 2026-07-07, fired 3x (last 2026-08-18)carried 1d
no analyst read yet
T3watchCBRS shortcore cbrs-th-002: challenge accretion (2+ challenges in 90 days), first crossed 2026-07-07, fired 3x (last 2026-08-18)carried 1d
no analyst read yet
T3watchCBRS shortcore cbrs-th-003: challenge accretion (2+ challenges in 90 days), first crossed 2026-07-07, fired 3x (last 2026-08-18)carried 1d
no analyst read yet
T3watchCBRS shortrisk cbrs-th-006: a named risk confirming (2+ confirms in 90 days), first crossed 2026-07-07, fired 3x (last 2026-08-18)carried 1d
no analyst read yet
T3watchCBRS shortcore cbrs-th-005: challenge accretion (2+ challenges in 90 days), first crossed 2026-08-15, fired 1x (last 2026-08-15)carried 1d
no analyst read yet
T3thesis-stagedSNVA short5 staged thesis claim(s) awaiting promote/rejectcarried 1d
no analyst read yet
T4adjudicate0522 longlong; 5 auto-promoted claim(s) never adjudicated (oldest 2026-08-17); prints 2026-11-03 (60d)carried 1d
no analyst read yet
T4watch2454 longrisk 2454-th-002: a named risk confirming (2+ confirms in 90 days), first crossed 2026-07-07, fired 3x (last 2026-08-18)carried 1d
no analyst read yet
T4watchAMD longcore amd-th-001: challenge accretion (2+ challenges in 90 days), first crossed 2026-07-07, fired 3x (last 2026-08-18)carried 1d
no analyst read yet
T4watchAMD longrisk amd-th-004: a named risk confirming (2+ confirms in 90 days), first crossed 2026-07-11, fired 3x (last 2026-08-22)carried 1d
no analyst read yet
T4watchAMD longsupporting amd-th-003: challenge accretion (2+ challenges in 90 days), first crossed 2026-08-07, fired 2x (last 2026-08-28)carried 1d
no analyst read yet
T4adjudicateASMI longlong; 5 auto-promoted claim(s) never adjudicated (oldest 2026-08-17); prints 2026-10-27 (53d)carried 1d
no analyst read yet
T4adjudicateCVLT shortshort; 5 auto-promoted claim(s) never adjudicated (oldest 2026-08-17); prints 2026-10-26 (52d)carried 1d
no analyst read yet
T4watchCVLT shortcore cvlt-th-001: challenge accretion (2+ challenges in 90 days), first crossed 2026-08-17, fired 1x (last 2026-08-17)carried 1d
no analyst read yet
T4adjudicateGIL longlong; 6 auto-promoted claim(s) never adjudicated (oldest 2026-08-17); prints 2026-10-27 (53d)carried 1d
no analyst read yet
T4watchGIL longrisk gil-th-005: a named risk confirming (2+ confirms in 90 days), first crossed 2026-08-17, fired 1x (last 2026-08-17)carried 1d
no analyst read yet
T4watchIFX longrisk ifx-th-006: a named risk confirming (2+ confirms in 90 days), first crossed 2026-07-07, fired 3x (last 2026-08-18)carried 1d
no analyst read yet
T4watchIFX longcore ifx-th-002: challenge accretion (2+ challenges in 90 days), first crossed 2026-07-14, fired 3x (last 2026-08-25)carried 1d
no analyst read yet
T4adjudicateLRCX longlong; 5 auto-promoted claim(s) never adjudicated (oldest 2026-08-17); prints 2026-10-20 (46d)carried 1d
no analyst read yet
T4watchLRCX longcore lrcx-th-001: challenge accretion (2+ challenges in 90 days), first crossed 2026-08-17, fired 1x (last 2026-08-17)carried 1d
no analyst read yet
T4watchLRCX longcore lrcx-th-002: challenge accretion (2+ challenges in 90 days), first crossed 2026-08-17, fired 1x (last 2026-08-17)carried 1d
no analyst read yet
T4watchLRCX longsupporting lrcx-th-003: challenge accretion (2+ challenges in 90 days), first crossed 2026-08-17, fired 1x (last 2026-08-17)carried 1d
no analyst read yet
T4watchMKSI longcore mksi-th-001: challenge accretion (2+ challenges in 90 days), first crossed 2026-08-18, fired 1x (last 2026-08-18)carried 1d
no analyst read yet
T4watchMKSI longsupporting mksi-th-003: challenge accretion (2+ challenges in 90 days), first crossed 2026-08-18, fired 1x (last 2026-08-18)carried 1d
no analyst read yet
T4watchMKSI longrisk mksi-th-005: a named risk confirming (2+ confirms in 90 days), first crossed 2026-08-18, fired 1x (last 2026-08-18)carried 1d
no analyst read yet
WATCHadjudicate000660 watch5 auto-promoted claim(s) never adjudicated (oldest 2026-08-31)carried 1d
no analyst read yet
WATCHwatch009150 watchcore 009150-th-001: challenge accretion (2+ challenges in 90 days), first crossed 2026-07-18, fired 3x (last 2026-08-29)carried 1d
no analyst read yet
WATCHwatch2308 watchsupporting 2308-th-003: challenge accretion (2+ challenges in 90 days), first crossed 2026-08-15, fired 1x (last 2026-08-15)carried 1d
no analyst read yet
WATCHadjudicate3037 watch5 auto-promoted claim(s) never adjudicated (oldest 2026-08-06)carried 1d
no analyst read yet
WATCHexposure3037 watch1 staged exposure claim(s) awaiting promote / vetocarried 1d
promote all 1 (no veto rule fired) (staged-vs-active facts)
WATCHwatch3037 watchcore 3037-th-003: challenge accretion (2+ challenges in 90 days), first crossed 2026-08-07, fired 2x (last 2026-08-28)carried 1d
no analyst read yet
WATCHwatch3037 watchrisk 3037-th-005: a named risk confirming (2+ confirms in 90 days), first crossed 2026-08-07, fired 2x (last 2026-08-28)carried 1d
no analyst read yet
WATCHadjudicate4062 watch6 auto-promoted claim(s) never adjudicated (oldest 2026-08-17)carried 1d
no analyst read yet
WATCHwaypoint4062 watchwaypoint 4062-th-001-wp-1 on 4062-th-001 due 2026-08-07 - hit or missed?carried 1d
no analyst read yet
WATCHwaypoint4062 watchwaypoint 4062-th-002-wp-1 on 4062-th-002 due 2026-08-07 - hit or missed?carried 1d
no analyst read yet
WATCHexposure4062 watch1 staged exposure claim(s) awaiting promote / vetocarried 1d
promote all 1 (no veto rule fired) (staged-vs-active facts)
WATCHexposure6723 watch1 staged exposure claim(s) awaiting promote / vetocarried 1d
promote all 1 (no veto rule fired) (staged-vs-active facts)
WATCHexposure688146 watch1 staged exposure claim(s) awaiting promote / vetocarried 1d
promote all 1 (no veto rule fired) (staged-vs-active facts)
WATCHexposure6963 watch2 staged exposure claim(s) awaiting promote / vetocarried 1d
promote all 2 (no veto rule fired) (staged-vs-active facts)
WATCHexposureADI watch1 staged exposure claim(s) awaiting promote / vetocarried 1d
promote all 1 (no veto rule fired) (staged-vs-active facts)
WATCHmaterialsALMU watchprints 2026-09-07 (Q4 FY26, VENDOR) with the earnings gate shut - 1 runnable pull(s), 6 manual upload(s)carried 1d
filings store-cure: /financials ALMU; consensus (VA/CIQ historical + forward consensus (3FS)): drop a VA grid in Intake -> python scripts/adapters/va_grid_intake.py ALMU; multiples (Market Data/ALMU_multiples_daily.csv): python scripts/adapters/va_grid_valuation_pull.py ALMU; estimates (Market Data/ALMU_estimates_daily.csv): python scripts/adapters/va_grid_valuation_pull.py ALMU (earnings unblock)
WATCHexposureAOSL watch1 staged exposure claim(s) awaiting promote / vetocarried 1d
promote all 1 (no veto rule fired) (staged-vs-active facts)
WATCHadjudicateBESI watch5 auto-promoted claim(s) never adjudicated (oldest 2026-07-17)carried 1d
no analyst read yet
WATCHwaypointBESI watchwaypoint besi-th-001-wp-1 on besi-th-001 due 2026-07-24 - hit or missed?carried 1d
no analyst read yet
WATCHexposureCLS watch4 staged exposure claim(s) awaiting promote / vetonew 0d
promote all 4 (no veto rule fired) (staged-vs-active facts)
WATCHexposureFN watch3 staged exposure claim(s) awaiting promote / vetonew 0d
promote all 3 (no veto rule fired) (staged-vs-active facts)
WATCHexposureIBM watch2 staged exposure claim(s) awaiting promote / vetonew 0d
promote all 2 (no veto rule fired) (staged-vs-active facts)
WATCHadjudicateINTC watch6 auto-promoted claim(s) never adjudicated (oldest 2026-08-17)carried 1d
no analyst read yet
WATCHwatchINTC watchcore intc-th-001: challenge accretion (2+ challenges in 90 days), first crossed 2026-07-23, fired 2x (last 2026-08-15)carried 1d
no analyst read yet
WATCHwatchINTC watchcore intc-th-002: challenge accretion (2+ challenges in 90 days), first crossed 2026-07-23, fired 2x (last 2026-08-15)carried 1d
no analyst read yet
WATCHwatchINTC watchcore intc-th-003: challenge accretion (2+ challenges in 90 days), first crossed 2026-07-23, fired 2x (last 2026-08-15)carried 1d
no analyst read yet
WATCHwatchINTC watchrisk intc-th-004: a named risk confirming (2+ confirms in 90 days), first crossed 2026-07-23, fired 2x (last 2026-08-15)carried 1d
no analyst read yet
WATCHwatchINTC watchsupporting intc-th-004: challenge accretion (2+ challenges in 90 days), first crossed 2026-08-17, fired 1x (last 2026-08-17)carried 1d
no analyst read yet
WATCHmaterialsIQE watchprints 2026-09-07 (Q2 FY26, VENDOR) with the earnings gate shut - 1 runnable pull(s), 6 manual upload(s)carried 1d
filings store-cure: /financials IQE; consensus (VA/CIQ historical + forward consensus (3FS)): drop a VA grid in Intake -> python scripts/adapters/va_grid_intake.py IQE; multiples (Market Data/IQE_multiples_daily.csv): python scripts/adapters/va_grid_valuation_pull.py IQE; estimates (Market Data/IQE_estimates_daily.csv): python scripts/adapters/va_grid_valuation_pull.py IQE (earnings unblock)
WATCHmaterialsLPTH watchprints 2026-09-10 (Q4 FY26, VENDOR) with the earnings gate shut - 1 runnable pull(s), 6 manual upload(s)carried 1d
filings store-cure: /financials LPTH; consensus (VA/CIQ historical + forward consensus (3FS)): drop a VA grid in Intake -> python scripts/adapters/va_grid_intake.py LPTH; multiples (Market Data/LPTH_multiples_daily.csv): python scripts/adapters/va_grid_valuation_pull.py LPTH; estimates (Market Data/LPTH_estimates_daily.csv): python scripts/adapters/va_grid_valuation_pull.py LPTH (earnings unblock)
WATCHexposureMETA watch1 staged exposure claim(s) awaiting promote / vetonew 0d
promote all 1 (no veto rule fired) (staged-vs-active facts)
WATCHexposureMPWR watch1 staged exposure claim(s) awaiting promote / vetocarried 1d
promote all 1 (no veto rule fired) (staged-vs-active facts)
WATCHexposureNVDA watch2 staged exposure claim(s) awaiting promote / vetonew 0d
promote all 2 (no veto rule fired) (staged-vs-active facts)
WATCHexposureNVTS watch2 staged exposure claim(s) awaiting promote / vetocarried 1d
promote 1 / veto 1 - vetoes: nvts-cust-008 (duplicates an active claim) (staged-vs-active facts)
WATCHexposurePOWI watch1 staged exposure claim(s) awaiting promote / vetocarried 1d
promote all 1 (no veto rule fired) (staged-vs-active facts)
WATCHadjudicateQCOM watch5 auto-promoted claim(s) never adjudicated (oldest 2026-08-18)carried 1d
no analyst read yet
WATCHwatchQCOM watchrisk qcom-th-005: a named risk confirming (2+ confirms in 90 days), first crossed 2026-08-19, fired 1x (last 2026-08-19)carried 1d
no analyst read yet
WATCHwatchQCOM watchcore qcom-th-004: challenge accretion (2+ challenges in 90 days), first crossed 2026-08-21, fired 1x (last 2026-08-21)carried 1d
no analyst read yet
WATCHwatchRBLX watchcore rblx-th-001: challenge accretion (2+ challenges in 90 days), first crossed 2026-09-04, fired 1x (last 2026-09-04)new 0d
no analyst read yet
WATCHwatchRBLX watchrisk rblx-th-003: a named risk confirming (2+ confirms in 90 days), first crossed 2026-09-04, fired 1x (last 2026-09-04)new 0d
no analyst read yet
WATCHmaterialsRSW watchprints 2026-09-15 (Q4 FY26, VENDOR) with the earnings gate shut - 1 runnable pull(s), 7 manual upload(s)carried 1d
filings store-cure: /financials RSW; consensus (VA/CIQ historical + forward consensus (3FS)): drop a VA grid in Intake -> python scripts/adapters/va_grid_intake.py RSW; multiples (Market Data/RSW_multiples_daily.csv): python scripts/adapters/va_grid_valuation_pull.py RSW; estimates (Market Data/RSW_estimates_daily.csv): python scripts/adapters/va_grid_valuation_pull.py RSW (earnings unblock)
WATCHadjudicateTEL watch6 auto-promoted claim(s) never adjudicated (oldest 2026-07-18)carried 1d
no analyst read yet
WATCHwatchTEL watchrisk tel-th-002: a named risk confirming (2+ confirms in 90 days), first crossed 2026-07-29, fired 2x (last 2026-08-19)carried 1d
no analyst read yet
WATCHexposureTXN watch1 staged exposure claim(s) awaiting promote / vetocarried 1d
promote all 1 (no veto rule fired) (staged-vs-active facts)
WATCHexposureWOLF watch1 staged exposure claim(s) awaiting promote / vetocarried 1d
promote all 1 (no veto rule fired) (staged-vs-active facts)
WATCHedgesmemory 6 staged edge(s) on the memory chaincarried 1d
no analyst read yet
WATCHedgesmlcc 16 staged edge(s) on the mlcc chaincarried 1d
no analyst read yet
WATCHedgespower-semis 27 staged edge(s) on the power-semis chaincarried 1d
no analyst read yet
WATCHapproverun-queue 18 mechanical auto-safe row(s) readynew 0d
they drain unattended at the next refresh; approve only to drain now (morning_actions)
The machine queue + every staged backlog (analyst-owned)

Below: the auto-safe drain rows, the analyst lane's work, and every staged backlog across the stores, oldest first. Greyed rows carry an active decision-ledger hold. Click a kind pill to filter.

Suggested actions - top 20 of 211 · queue 2026-09-04

ranked: held names first, then urgency (print-day > pre-earnings > thesis > maintenance > freshness > staleness). 18 auto-safe row(s) drain unattended at the 20:15 refresh (cap 15) or anytime via /run-queue --approve; the rest wait for you.

#ClassCommandSourceRationale
1analyst-executes/earnings-review AVGO --period "Q3 FY26" maintenance-dueearnings-review due: AVGO Q3 FY26 printed, no current review
2surface/init-cg 005930 runinit-stalenessinit-staleness: 005930 cg_report_v1 <- corpus-moved (2026-09-02)
3surface/init-debate 005930 runinit-stalenessinit-staleness: 005930 debate_v1 <- corpus-moved (2026-09-02), exposure-moved (2026-08-31)
4surface/dossier 005930 runinit-stalenessinit-staleness: 005930 dossier_v2 <- modules-moved (2026-09-04), exposure-moved (2026-08-31), slope-moved (2026-09-04, 72.5pp)
5surface/init-peers 005930 runinit-stalenessinit-staleness: 005930 peers_v1 <- corpus-moved (2026-09-02)
6surface/init-primer 005930 runinit-stalenessinit-staleness: 005930 primer_v2 <- corpus-moved (2026-09-02)
7surface/init-cg 0522 runinit-stalenessinit-staleness: 0522 cg_report_v1 <- spec-drift (619d9a6f3121->6a55a515c02b)
8surface/init-debate 0522 runinit-stalenessinit-staleness: 0522 debate_v2 <- spec-drift (b095473a3613->8c81f00462ce)
9surface/dossier 0522 runinit-stalenessinit-staleness: 0522 dossier_v2 <- modules-moved (2026-08-31), slope-moved (2026-08-31, 23.7pp)
10surface/init-cg 2327 runinit-stalenessinit-staleness: 2327 cg_report_v1 <- corpus-moved (2026-08-30), spec-drift (e60ac49c455b->6a55a515c02b)
11surface/init-debate 2327 runinit-stalenessinit-staleness: 2327 debate_v1 <- corpus-moved (2026-08-30), spec-drift (aca1e6636b9b->8c81f00462ce)
12surface/dossier 2327 runinit-stalenessinit-staleness: 2327 dossier_v1 <- modules-moved (2026-08-31), exposure-moved (2026-07-28), slope-moved (2026-08-31, 30.2pp), spec-drift (a6f039281896->cff04c50c959)
13surface/init-peers 2327 runinit-stalenessinit-staleness: 2327 peers_v1 <- corpus-moved (2026-08-30), spec-drift (2cea9ddf2127->76171760a486)
14surface/init-primer 2327 runinit-stalenessinit-staleness: 2327 primer_v1 <- corpus-moved (2026-08-30), spec-drift (aedeeb77b000->af40d06216e2)
15surface/init-cg 2330 runinit-stalenessinit-staleness: 2330 cg_report_v1 <- corpus-moved (2026-08-18)
16surface/init-debate 2330 runinit-stalenessinit-staleness: 2330 debate_v2 <- corpus-moved (2026-08-18), exposure-moved (2026-08-11), spec-drift (e343a3afbdc7->8c81f00462ce)
17surface/dossier 2330 runinit-stalenessinit-staleness: 2330 dossier_v2 <- modules-moved (2026-08-24), exposure-moved (2026-08-11), slope-moved (2026-08-31, 2.5pp), spec-drift (90c36aa4e8eb->cff04c50c959)
18surface/init-peers 2330 runinit-stalenessinit-staleness: 2330 peers_v1 <- corpus-moved (2026-08-18)
19surface/init-primer 2330 runinit-stalenessinit-staleness: 2330 primer_v3 <- corpus-moved (2026-08-18)
20surface/init-cg 2454 runinit-stalenessinit-staleness: 2454 cg_report_v1 <- corpus-moved (2026-08-18)
+191 more (ranked below the top 20)
#ClassCommandSourceRationale
21surface/init-debate 2454 runinit-stalenessinit-staleness: 2454 debate_v1 <- corpus-moved (2026-08-18), exposure-moved (2026-07-10)
22surface/dossier 2454 runinit-stalenessinit-staleness: 2454 dossier_v3 <- modules-moved (2026-09-02), exposure-moved (2026-07-10), slope-moved (2026-09-02, 31.1pp)
23surface/init-peers 2454 runinit-stalenessinit-staleness: 2454 peers_v1 <- corpus-moved (2026-08-18)
24surface/init-primer 2454 runinit-stalenessinit-staleness: 2454 primer_v1 <- corpus-moved (2026-08-18)
25surface/init-cg 5536 runinit-stalenessinit-staleness: 5536 cg_report_v1 <- corpus-moved (2026-08-23), spec-drift (e732f16bdfe0->6a55a515c02b)
26surface/init-debate 5536 runinit-stalenessinit-staleness: 5536 debate_v1 <- corpus-moved (2026-08-23), exposure-moved (2026-08-11), spec-drift (bdc9af56bf92->8c81f00462ce)
27surface/dossier 5536 runinit-stalenessinit-staleness: 5536 dossier_v1 <- modules-moved (2026-09-02), exposure-moved (2026-08-11), slope-moved (2026-09-02, 30.4pp), spec-drift (234688e997a8->cff04c50c959)
28surface/init-peers 5536 runinit-stalenessinit-staleness: 5536 peers_v1 <- corpus-moved (2026-08-23), spec-drift (2961604a2fba->76171760a486)
29surface/init-primer 5536 runinit-stalenessinit-staleness: 5536 primer_v2 <- corpus-moved (2026-08-23), spec-drift (aedeeb77b000->af40d06216e2)
30surface/init-cg 6762 runinit-stalenessinit-staleness: 6762 cg_report_v1 <- corpus-moved (2026-08-20)
31surface/init-debate 6762 runinit-stalenessinit-staleness: 6762 debate_v2 <- corpus-moved (2026-08-20), exposure-moved (2026-07-13), spec-drift (aca1e6636b9b->8c81f00462ce)
32surface/dossier 6762 runinit-stalenessinit-staleness: 6762 dossier_v2 <- modules-moved (2026-09-02), slope-moved (2026-09-02, 8.2pp), spec-drift (a6f039281896->cff04c50c959)
33surface/init-peers 6762 runinit-stalenessinit-staleness: 6762 peers_v2 <- corpus-moved (2026-08-20), spec-drift (2cea9ddf2127->76171760a486)
34surface/init-primer 6762 runinit-stalenessinit-staleness: 6762 primer_v2 <- corpus-moved (2026-08-20), spec-drift (aedeeb77b000->af40d06216e2)
35surface/init-cg 6857 runinit-stalenessinit-staleness: 6857 cg_report_v1 <- corpus-moved (2026-08-18)
36surface/init-debate 6857 runinit-stalenessinit-staleness: 6857 debate_v1 <- corpus-moved (2026-08-18), exposure-moved (2026-07-03)
37surface/dossier 6857 runinit-stalenessinit-staleness: 6857 dossier_v3 <- modules-moved (2026-09-04), slope-moved (2026-09-04, 19.2pp)
38surface/init-peers 6857 runinit-stalenessinit-staleness: 6857 peers_v2 <- corpus-moved (2026-08-18), spec-drift (2cea9ddf2127->76171760a486)
39surface/init-primer 6857 runinit-stalenessinit-staleness: 6857 primer_v1 <- corpus-moved (2026-08-18)
40surface/init-cg 6976 runinit-stalenessinit-staleness: 6976 cg_report_v2 <- corpus-moved (2026-08-20)
41surface/init-debate 6976 runinit-stalenessinit-staleness: 6976 debate_v2 <- corpus-moved (2026-08-20), exposure-moved (2026-07-13)
42surface/dossier 6976 runinit-stalenessinit-staleness: 6976 dossier_v4 <- modules-moved (2026-09-02), exposure-moved (2026-07-13)
43surface/init-peers 6976 runinit-stalenessinit-staleness: 6976 peers_v2 <- corpus-moved (2026-08-20)
44surface/init-primer 6976 runinit-stalenessinit-staleness: 6976 primer_v3 <- corpus-moved (2026-08-20), spec-drift (aedeeb77b000->af40d06216e2)
45surface/init-cg 6981 runinit-stalenessinit-staleness: 6981 cg_report_v3 <- corpus-moved (2026-08-24)
46surface/init-debate 6981 runinit-stalenessinit-staleness: 6981 debate_v6 <- corpus-moved (2026-08-24), spec-drift (b095473a3613->8c81f00462ce)
47surface/dossier 6981 runinit-stalenessinit-staleness: 6981 dossier_v7 <- modules-moved (2026-09-02), exposure-moved (2026-07-17), spec-drift (7979648fa659->cff04c50c959)
48surface/init-peers 6981 runinit-stalenessinit-staleness: 6981 peers_v3 <- corpus-moved (2026-08-24)
49surface/init-primer 6981 runinit-stalenessinit-staleness: 6981 primer_v5 <- corpus-moved (2026-08-24), spec-drift (aedeeb77b000->af40d06216e2)
50surface/init-cg 8035 runinit-stalenessinit-staleness: 8035 cg_report_v1 <- corpus-moved (2026-08-18), spec-drift (e60ac49c455b->6a55a515c02b)
51surface/init-debate 8035 runinit-stalenessinit-staleness: 8035 debate_v1 <- corpus-moved (2026-08-18), spec-drift (aca1e6636b9b->8c81f00462ce)
52surface/dossier 8035 runinit-stalenessinit-staleness: 8035 dossier_v2 <- modules-moved (2026-09-03), slope-moved (2026-09-03, 8.2pp), spec-drift (a6f039281896->cff04c50c959)
53surface/init-peers 8035 runinit-stalenessinit-staleness: 8035 peers_v2 <- corpus-moved (2026-08-18), spec-drift (2cea9ddf2127->76171760a486)
54surface/init-primer 8035 runinit-stalenessinit-staleness: 8035 primer_v2 <- corpus-moved (2026-08-18), spec-drift (aedeeb77b000->af40d06216e2)
55surface/init-cg AMAT runinit-stalenessinit-staleness: AMAT cg_report_v1 <- corpus-moved (2026-09-04), spec-drift (e60ac49c455b->6a55a515c02b)
56surface/init-debate AMAT runinit-stalenessinit-staleness: AMAT debate_v1 <- corpus-moved (2026-09-04), exposure-moved (2026-08-31), spec-drift (aca1e6636b9b->8c81f00462ce)
57surface/dossier AMAT runinit-stalenessinit-staleness: AMAT dossier_v1 <- modules-moved (2026-08-31), exposure-moved (2026-08-31), slope-moved (2026-08-31, 14.2pp), spec-drift (a6f039281896->cff04c50c959)
58surface/init-peers AMAT runinit-stalenessinit-staleness: AMAT peers_v2 <- corpus-moved (2026-09-04), spec-drift (2cea9ddf2127->76171760a486)
59surface/init-primer AMAT runinit-stalenessinit-staleness: AMAT primer_v3 <- corpus-moved (2026-09-04), spec-drift (aedeeb77b000->af40d06216e2)
60surface/init-cg AMD runinit-stalenessinit-staleness: AMD cg_report_v1 <- corpus-moved (2026-08-23)
61surface/init-debate AMD runinit-stalenessinit-staleness: AMD debate_v2 <- corpus-moved (2026-08-23), spec-drift (b095473a3613->8c81f00462ce)
62surface/dossier AMD runinit-stalenessinit-staleness: AMD dossier_v3 <- modules-moved (2026-08-18), exposure-moved (2026-08-09), slope-moved (2026-08-31, 8.6pp)
63surface/init-peers AMD runinit-stalenessinit-staleness: AMD peers_v1 <- corpus-moved (2026-08-23)
64surface/init-primer AMD runinit-stalenessinit-staleness: AMD primer_v3 <- corpus-moved (2026-08-23), spec-drift (aedeeb77b000->af40d06216e2)
65surface/init-cg ARM runinit-stalenessinit-staleness: ARM cg_report_v1 <- corpus-moved (2026-08-18)
66surface/init-debate ARM runinit-stalenessinit-staleness: ARM debate_v1 <- corpus-moved (2026-08-18), exposure-moved (2026-08-09)
67surface/dossier ARM runinit-stalenessinit-staleness: ARM dossier_v3 <- modules-moved (2026-08-31), exposure-moved (2026-08-09), slope-moved (2026-08-31, 10.5pp)
68surface/init-peers ARM runinit-stalenessinit-staleness: ARM peers_v2 <- corpus-moved (2026-08-18), spec-drift (2cea9ddf2127->76171760a486)
69surface/init-primer ARM runinit-stalenessinit-staleness: ARM primer_v1 <- corpus-moved (2026-08-18)
70surface/init-primer ASMI runinit-stalenessinit-staleness: ASMI primer_v1 <- corpus-moved (2026-08-18)
71surface/init-cg ASML runinit-stalenessinit-staleness: ASML cg_report_v1 <- corpus-moved (2026-08-18)
72surface/init-debate ASML runinit-stalenessinit-staleness: ASML debate_v3 <- exposure-moved (2026-08-31), spec-drift (b095473a3613->8c81f00462ce)
73surface/init-peers ASML runinit-stalenessinit-staleness: ASML peers_v1 <- corpus-moved (2026-08-18)
74surface/init-primer ASML runinit-stalenessinit-staleness: ASML primer_v3 <- corpus-moved (2026-08-18)
75surface/init-cg BE runinit-stalenessinit-staleness: BE cg_report_v1 <- corpus-moved (2026-08-18), spec-drift (18ddd2df24e6->6a55a515c02b)
76surface/init-debate BE runinit-stalenessinit-staleness: BE debate_v2 <- corpus-moved (2026-08-18), spec-drift (e343a3afbdc7->8c81f00462ce)
77surface/dossier BE runinit-stalenessinit-staleness: BE dossier_v2 <- modules-moved (2026-09-02), slope-moved (2026-09-02, 5.5pp), spec-drift (90c36aa4e8eb->cff04c50c959)
78surface/init-peers BE runinit-stalenessinit-staleness: BE peers_v2 <- corpus-moved (2026-08-18), spec-drift (a9ac77e5c8c1->76171760a486)
79surface/init-primer BE runinit-stalenessinit-staleness: BE primer_v3 <- corpus-moved (2026-08-18), spec-drift (e0bdc9ddf617->af40d06216e2)
80surface/init-cg CBRS runinit-stalenessinit-staleness: CBRS cg_report_v1 <- corpus-moved (2026-08-18)
81surface/init-debate CBRS runinit-stalenessinit-staleness: CBRS debate_v3 <- corpus-moved (2026-08-18), exposure-moved (2026-08-15), spec-drift (b095473a3613->8c81f00462ce)
82surface/init-peers CBRS runinit-stalenessinit-staleness: CBRS peers_v2 <- corpus-moved (2026-08-18)
83surface/init-primer CBRS runinit-stalenessinit-staleness: CBRS primer_v3 <- corpus-moved (2026-08-18)
84surface/init-cg CRDO runinit-stalenessinit-staleness: CRDO cg_report_v4 <- corpus-moved (2026-09-03), spec-drift (9f6fb2beff74->6a55a515c02b)
85surface/init-debate CRDO runinit-stalenessinit-staleness: CRDO debate_v5 <- corpus-moved (2026-09-03), exposure-moved (2026-08-31), spec-drift (a884fe19b819->8c81f00462ce)
86surface/dossier CRDO runinit-stalenessinit-staleness: CRDO dossier_v8 <- modules-moved (2026-09-04), exposure-moved (2026-08-31), spec-drift (234688e997a8->cff04c50c959)
87surface/init-peers CRDO runinit-stalenessinit-staleness: CRDO peers_v5 <- corpus-moved (2026-09-03), spec-drift (2cea9ddf2127->76171760a486)
88surface/init-primer CRDO runinit-stalenessinit-staleness: CRDO primer_v5 <- corpus-moved (2026-09-03), spec-drift (aedeeb77b000->af40d06216e2)
89surface/init-cg IFX runinit-stalenessinit-staleness: IFX cg_report_v1 <- corpus-moved (2026-08-18)
90surface/init-debate IFX runinit-stalenessinit-staleness: IFX debate_v1 <- corpus-moved (2026-08-18), exposure-moved (2026-08-07)
91surface/dossier IFX runinit-stalenessinit-staleness: IFX dossier_v4 <- modules-moved (2026-08-22), exposure-moved (2026-08-07), slope-moved (2026-08-31, 7.1pp)
92surface/init-peers IFX runinit-stalenessinit-staleness: IFX peers_v2 <- corpus-moved (2026-08-18), spec-drift (2cea9ddf2127->76171760a486)
93surface/init-primer IFX runinit-stalenessinit-staleness: IFX primer_v1 <- corpus-moved (2026-08-18)
94surface/init-cg KLAC runinit-stalenessinit-staleness: KLAC cg_report_v2 <- corpus-moved (2026-08-18), spec-drift (18ddd2df24e6->6a55a515c02b)
95surface/init-debate KLAC runinit-stalenessinit-staleness: KLAC debate_v3 <- corpus-moved (2026-08-18), exposure-moved (2026-08-07), spec-drift (e343a3afbdc7->8c81f00462ce)
96surface/dossier KLAC runinit-stalenessinit-staleness: KLAC dossier_v2 <- modules-moved (2026-08-22), exposure-moved (2026-08-07), slope-moved (2026-08-31, 3.0pp), spec-drift (785b2215f6bc->cff04c50c959)
97surface/init-peers KLAC runinit-stalenessinit-staleness: KLAC peers_v2 <- corpus-moved (2026-08-18), spec-drift (a9ac77e5c8c1->76171760a486)
98surface/init-primer KLAC runinit-stalenessinit-staleness: KLAC primer_v3 <- corpus-moved (2026-08-18), spec-drift (be6c91182843->af40d06216e2)
99surface/init-cg LITE runinit-stalenessinit-staleness: LITE cg_report_v1 <- corpus-moved (2026-08-18)
100surface/init-debate LITE runinit-stalenessinit-staleness: LITE debate_v1 <- corpus-moved (2026-08-18), exposure-moved (2026-08-28)
101surface/dossier LITE runinit-stalenessinit-staleness: LITE dossier_v4 <- modules-moved (2026-09-03), exposure-moved (2026-08-28), slope-moved (2026-09-03, 24.1pp), spec-drift (740fb52f31d0->cff04c50c959)
102surface/init-peers LITE runinit-stalenessinit-staleness: LITE peers_v2 <- corpus-moved (2026-08-18), spec-drift (2cea9ddf2127->76171760a486)
103surface/init-primer LITE runinit-stalenessinit-staleness: LITE primer_v4 <- corpus-moved (2026-08-18), spec-drift (aedeeb77b000->af40d06216e2)
104surface/init-cg LRCX runinit-stalenessinit-staleness: LRCX cg_report_v1 <- corpus-moved (2026-08-30), spec-drift (619d9a6f3121->6a55a515c02b)
105surface/init-debate LRCX runinit-stalenessinit-staleness: LRCX debate_v1 <- corpus-moved (2026-08-30), spec-drift (b095473a3613->8c81f00462ce)
106surface/init-peers LRCX runinit-stalenessinit-staleness: LRCX peers_v1 <- corpus-moved (2026-08-30)
107surface/init-primer LRCX runinit-stalenessinit-staleness: LRCX primer_v3 <- corpus-moved (2026-08-30)
108surface/init-cg MKSI runinit-stalenessinit-staleness: MKSI cg_report_v1 <- spec-drift (619d9a6f3121->6a55a515c02b)
109surface/init-debate MKSI runinit-stalenessinit-staleness: MKSI debate_v1 <- spec-drift (b095473a3613->8c81f00462ce)
110surface/init-cg MU runinit-stalenessinit-staleness: MU cg_report_v2 <- corpus-moved (2026-08-31), spec-drift (619d9a6f3121->6a55a515c02b)
111surface/init-debate MU runinit-stalenessinit-staleness: MU debate_v1 <- corpus-moved (2026-08-31), exposure-moved (2026-08-31), spec-drift (b095473a3613->8c81f00462ce)
112surface/dossier MU runinit-stalenessinit-staleness: MU dossier_v2 <- modules-moved (2026-09-04), exposure-moved (2026-08-31), slope-moved (2026-09-04, 24.6pp)
113surface/init-peers MU runinit-stalenessinit-staleness: MU peers_v3 <- corpus-moved (2026-08-31)
114surface/init-primer MU runinit-stalenessinit-staleness: MU primer_v1 <- corpus-moved (2026-08-31)
115surface/init-cg ONTO runinit-stalenessinit-staleness: ONTO cg_report_v1 <- spec-drift (619d9a6f3121->6a55a515c02b)
116surface/init-debate ONTO runinit-stalenessinit-staleness: ONTO debate_v1 <- spec-drift (b095473a3613->8c81f00462ce)
117surface/init-debate SNVA runinit-stalenessinit-staleness: SNVA debate_v1 <- spec-drift (b095473a3613->8c81f00462ce)
118surface/init-cg TER runinit-stalenessinit-staleness: TER cg_report_v1 <- corpus-moved (2026-08-18)
119surface/init-debate TER runinit-stalenessinit-staleness: TER debate_v1 <- corpus-moved (2026-08-18), exposure-moved (2026-07-01)
120surface/dossier TER runinit-stalenessinit-staleness: TER dossier_v3 <- modules-moved (2026-09-02), slope-moved (2026-09-02, 11.5pp)
121surface/init-peers TER runinit-stalenessinit-staleness: TER peers_v1 <- corpus-moved (2026-08-18)
122surface/init-primer TER runinit-stalenessinit-staleness: TER primer_v2 <- corpus-moved (2026-08-18)
123auto-safe/init-valuation KLAC runinit-stalenessinit-staleness: KLAC valuation_scan_v6 <- slope-moved (2026-08-31, 2.2pp), spec-drift (2ac1fcda9399->73fbcae43de3)
124surface/financials ALMU runearnings-unblockearnings-unblock: ALMU reports 2026-09-07 (3d) - filings store-cure
125surface/financials IQE runearnings-unblockearnings-unblock: IQE reports 2026-09-07 (3d) - filings store-cure
126surface/financials LPTH runearnings-unblockearnings-unblock: LPTH reports 2026-09-10 (6d) - filings store-cure
127surface/financials RSW runearnings-unblockearnings-unblock: RSW reports 2026-09-15 (11d) - filings store-cure
128analyst-executes/earnings-review NVDA --period "Q2 FY27" maintenance-dueearnings-review due: NVDA Q2 FY27 printed, no current review
129analyst-executes/earnings-review PLAB --period "Q3 FY26" maintenance-dueearnings-review due: PLAB Q3 FY26 printed, no current review
130analyst-executes/earnings-review SNPS --period "Q3 FY26" maintenance-dueearnings-review due: SNPS Q3 FY26 printed, no current review
131analyst-executes/earnings-review 6415 --period "Q2 FY26" maintenance-dueearnings-review due: 6415 Q2 FY26 printed, no current review
132auto-safe/thesis backfill 000660 runthesis-coveragethesis-coverage: 3 load-bearing claim(s) with ZERO evidence - untestable by any watch rule until backfilled
133surfacepython scripts\adapters\grid_refresh.py --tickers 2308 grid-stalenessgrid stale: 2308 market_multiples STALE (33d vs 7d) - refresh the CapIQ valuation grid
134surfacepython scripts\adapters\grid_refresh.py --tickers 2492 grid-stalenessgrid stale: 2492 market_multiples STALE (48d vs 7d) - refresh the CapIQ valuation grid
135surfacepython scripts\adapters\grid_refresh.py --tickers 285A grid-stalenessgrid stale: 285A market_multiples STALE (33d vs 7d) - refresh the CapIQ valuation grid
136surfacepython scripts\adapters\grid_refresh.py --tickers 3037 grid-stalenessgrid stale: 3037 market_multiples STALE (33d vs 7d) - refresh the CapIQ valuation grid
137surfacepython scripts\adapters\grid_refresh.py --tickers 4062 grid-stalenessgrid stale: 4062 market_multiples STALE (26d vs 7d) - refresh the CapIQ valuation grid
138surfacepython scripts\adapters\grid_refresh.py --tickers APH grid-stalenessgrid stale: APH market_multiples STALE (33d vs 7d) - refresh the CapIQ valuation grid
139surfacepython scripts\adapters\grid_refresh.py --tickers BESI grid-stalenessgrid stale: BESI market_multiples STALE (49d vs 7d) - refresh the CapIQ valuation grid
140surfacepython scripts\adapters\grid_refresh.py --tickers INTC grid-stalenessgrid stale: INTC market_multiples STALE (26d vs 7d) - refresh the CapIQ valuation grid
141surfacepython scripts\adapters\grid_refresh.py --tickers QCOM grid-stalenessgrid stale: QCOM market_multiples STALE (33d vs 7d) - refresh the CapIQ valuation grid
142surfacepython scripts\adapters\grid_refresh.py --tickers TEL grid-stalenessgrid stale: TEL market_multiples STALE (38d vs 7d) - refresh the CapIQ valuation grid
143surface/init-debate 000660 runinit-stalenessinit-staleness: 000660 debate_v1 <- corpus-moved (2026-09-02)
144surface/init-primer 000660 runinit-stalenessinit-staleness: 000660 primer_v2 <- corpus-moved (2026-09-02)
145surface/init-cg 009150 runinit-stalenessinit-staleness: 009150 cg_report_v2 <- corpus-moved (2026-08-18)
146surface/init-debate 009150 runinit-stalenessinit-staleness: 009150 debate_v2 <- corpus-moved (2026-08-18), exposure-moved (2026-07-17)
147surface/dossier 009150 runinit-stalenessinit-staleness: 009150 dossier_v5 <- exposure-moved (2026-07-17)
148auto-safe/init-financials 009150 runinit-stalenessinit-staleness: 009150 financial_scan_v2 <- store-moved (2026-07-03)
149surface/init-peers 009150 runinit-stalenessinit-staleness: 009150 peers_v2 <- corpus-moved (2026-08-18)
150surface/init-primer 009150 runinit-stalenessinit-staleness: 009150 primer_v2 <- corpus-moved (2026-08-18)
151surface/init-cg 2308 runinit-stalenessinit-staleness: 2308 cg_report_v3 <- corpus-moved (2026-08-18), spec-drift (e60ac49c455b->6a55a515c02b)
152surface/init-debate 2308 runinit-stalenessinit-staleness: 2308 debate_v3 <- corpus-moved (2026-08-18), spec-drift (aca1e6636b9b->8c81f00462ce)
153surface/dossier 2308 runinit-stalenessinit-staleness: 2308 dossier_v4 <- slope-moved (2026-08-15, 36.1pp), spec-drift (a6f039281896->cff04c50c959)
154auto-safe/init-financials 2308 runinit-stalenessinit-staleness: 2308 financial_scan_v3 <- spec-drift (91edd1fdfb36->3164609fa20d)
155surface/init-peers 2308 runinit-stalenessinit-staleness: 2308 peers_v3 <- corpus-moved (2026-08-18), spec-drift (2cea9ddf2127->76171760a486)
156surface/init-primer 2308 runinit-stalenessinit-staleness: 2308 primer_v3 <- corpus-moved (2026-08-18), spec-drift (aedeeb77b000->af40d06216e2)
157auto-safe/init-valuation 2308 runinit-stalenessinit-staleness: 2308 valuation_scan_v3 <- slope-moved (2026-08-15, 36.1pp), spec-drift (3493edd8cf5e->73fbcae43de3)
158auto-safe/init-financials 2492 runinit-stalenessinit-staleness: 2492 financial_scan_v1 <- spec-drift (91edd1fdfb36->3164609fa20d)
159surface/init-primer 2492 runinit-stalenessinit-staleness: 2492 primer_v1 <- corpus-moved (2026-08-15), spec-drift (aedeeb77b000->af40d06216e2)
160surface/init-cg 3037 runinit-stalenessinit-staleness: 3037 cg_report_v1 <- corpus-moved (2026-08-18), spec-drift (18ddd2df24e6->6a55a515c02b)
161surface/init-debate 3037 runinit-stalenessinit-staleness: 3037 debate_v1 <- corpus-moved (2026-08-18), exposure-moved (2026-08-09), spec-drift (e343a3afbdc7->8c81f00462ce)
162surface/dossier 3037 runinit-stalenessinit-staleness: 3037 dossier_v1 <- exposure-moved (2026-08-09), spec-drift (90c36aa4e8eb->cff04c50c959)
163auto-safe/init-financials 3037 runinit-stalenessinit-staleness: 3037 financial_scan_v1 <- spec-drift (34b0d5f15726->3164609fa20d)
164surface/init-peers 3037 runinit-stalenessinit-staleness: 3037 peers_v1 <- corpus-moved (2026-08-18), spec-drift (a9ac77e5c8c1->76171760a486)
165surface/init-primer 3037 runinit-stalenessinit-staleness: 3037 primer_v1 <- corpus-moved (2026-08-18), spec-drift (e0bdc9ddf617->af40d06216e2)
166auto-safe/init-valuation 3037 runinit-stalenessinit-staleness: 3037 valuation_scan_v1 <- spec-drift (aa8e87af22e3->73fbcae43de3)
167surface/init-cg 4062 runinit-stalenessinit-staleness: 4062 cg_report_v1 <- corpus-moved (2026-08-18), spec-drift (18ddd2df24e6->6a55a515c02b)
168surface/init-debate 4062 runinit-stalenessinit-staleness: 4062 debate_v3 <- corpus-moved (2026-08-18), spec-drift (e343a3afbdc7->8c81f00462ce)
169surface/dossier 4062 runinit-stalenessinit-staleness: 4062 dossier_v4 <- modules-moved (2026-08-09), slope-moved (2026-08-23, 9.1pp), spec-drift (785b2215f6bc->cff04c50c959)
170auto-safe/init-financials 4062 runinit-stalenessinit-staleness: 4062 financial_scan_v1 <- spec-drift (85af1e8eaad9->3164609fa20d)
171surface/init-peers 4062 runinit-stalenessinit-staleness: 4062 peers_v1 <- corpus-moved (2026-08-18), spec-drift (a9ac77e5c8c1->76171760a486)
172surface/init-primer 4062 runinit-stalenessinit-staleness: 4062 primer_v1 <- corpus-moved (2026-08-18), spec-drift (be6c91182843->af40d06216e2)
173auto-safe/init-valuation 4062 runinit-stalenessinit-staleness: 4062 valuation_scan_v2 <- spec-drift (58361b150be8->73fbcae43de3)
174surface/init-primer AEIS runinit-stalenessinit-staleness: AEIS primer_v1 <- corpus-moved (2026-08-31)
175surface/init-cg APH runinit-stalenessinit-staleness: APH cg_report_v1 <- corpus-moved (2026-08-18)
176surface/init-debate APH runinit-stalenessinit-staleness: APH debate_v2 <- spec-drift (b095473a3613->8c81f00462ce)
177surface/init-peers APH runinit-stalenessinit-staleness: APH peers_v1 <- corpus-moved (2026-08-18)
178surface/init-primer APH runinit-stalenessinit-staleness: APH primer_v1 <- corpus-moved (2026-08-18)
179surface/init-cg BESI runinit-stalenessinit-staleness: BESI cg_report_v1 <- corpus-moved (2026-08-18), spec-drift (e60ac49c455b->6a55a515c02b)
180surface/init-debate BESI runinit-stalenessinit-staleness: BESI debate_v1 <- corpus-moved (2026-08-18), spec-drift (aca1e6636b9b->8c81f00462ce)
181auto-safe/init-financials BESI runinit-stalenessinit-staleness: BESI financial_scan_v1 <- spec-drift (91edd1fdfb36->3164609fa20d)
182surface/init-peers BESI runinit-stalenessinit-staleness: BESI peers_v1 <- corpus-moved (2026-08-18), spec-drift (2cea9ddf2127->76171760a486)
183surface/init-primer BESI runinit-stalenessinit-staleness: BESI primer_v1 <- corpus-moved (2026-08-18), spec-drift (aedeeb77b000->af40d06216e2)
184auto-safe/init-valuation BESI runinit-stalenessinit-staleness: BESI valuation_scan_v1 <- spec-drift (3493edd8cf5e->73fbcae43de3)
185surface/init-cg INTC runinit-stalenessinit-staleness: INTC cg_report_v1 <- corpus-moved (2026-08-18), spec-drift (18ddd2df24e6->6a55a515c02b)
186surface/init-debate INTC runinit-stalenessinit-staleness: INTC debate_v3 <- corpus-moved (2026-08-18), exposure-moved (2026-08-09), spec-drift (e343a3afbdc7->8c81f00462ce)
187surface/dossier INTC runinit-stalenessinit-staleness: INTC dossier_v3 <- exposure-moved (2026-08-09), slope-moved (2026-08-23, 63.2pp), spec-drift (90c36aa4e8eb->cff04c50c959)
188auto-safe/init-financials INTC runinit-stalenessinit-staleness: INTC financial_scan_v1 <- store-moved (2026-07-23), spec-drift (85af1e8eaad9->3164609fa20d)
189surface/init-peers INTC runinit-stalenessinit-staleness: INTC peers_v1 <- corpus-moved (2026-08-18), spec-drift (a9ac77e5c8c1->76171760a486)
190surface/init-primer INTC runinit-stalenessinit-staleness: INTC primer_v2 <- corpus-moved (2026-08-18), spec-drift (be6c91182843->af40d06216e2)
191auto-safe/init-valuation INTC runinit-stalenessinit-staleness: INTC valuation_scan_v1 <- store-moved (2026-07-23), slope-moved (2026-08-23, 63.2pp), spec-drift (2ac1fcda9399->73fbcae43de3)
192surface/init-primer KLIC runinit-stalenessinit-staleness: KLIC primer_v1 <- corpus-moved (2026-08-23)
193surface/init-primer NVDA runinit-stalenessinit-staleness: NVDA primer_v1 <- corpus-moved (2026-08-27)
194surface/init-cg QCOM runinit-stalenessinit-staleness: QCOM cg_report_v1 <- corpus-moved (2026-08-26), spec-drift (619d9a6f3121->6a55a515c02b)
195surface/init-debate QCOM runinit-stalenessinit-staleness: QCOM debate_v2 <- corpus-moved (2026-08-26), exposure-moved (2026-08-26), spec-drift (b095473a3613->8c81f00462ce)
196surface/dossier QCOM runinit-stalenessinit-staleness: QCOM dossier_v2 <- exposure-moved (2026-08-26)
197auto-safe/init-financials QCOM runinit-stalenessinit-staleness: QCOM financial_scan_v1 <- store-moved (2026-08-21)
198surface/init-peers QCOM runinit-stalenessinit-staleness: QCOM peers_v2 <- corpus-moved (2026-08-26)
199surface/init-primer QCOM runinit-stalenessinit-staleness: QCOM primer_v2 <- corpus-moved (2026-08-26), spec-drift (a58a830d3c20->af40d06216e2)
200auto-safe/init-valuation QCOM runinit-stalenessinit-staleness: QCOM valuation_scan_v1 <- store-moved (2026-08-21)
201surface/init-debate RBLX runinit-stalenessinit-staleness: RBLX debate_v1 <- exposure-moved (2026-09-04)
202surface/dossier RBLX runinit-stalenessinit-staleness: RBLX dossier_v2 <- exposure-moved (2026-09-04)
203surface/init-primer SNDK runinit-stalenessinit-staleness: SNDK primer_v1 <- corpus-moved (2026-08-31)
204surface/init-cg TEL runinit-stalenessinit-staleness: TEL cg_report_v2 <- corpus-moved (2026-08-18), spec-drift (18ddd2df24e6->6a55a515c02b)
205surface/init-debate TEL runinit-stalenessinit-staleness: TEL debate_v1 <- corpus-moved (2026-08-18), exposure-moved (2026-07-28), spec-drift (aca1e6636b9b->8c81f00462ce)
206surface/dossier TEL runinit-stalenessinit-staleness: TEL dossier_v1 <- modules-moved (2026-07-28), exposure-moved (2026-07-28), spec-drift (a6f039281896->cff04c50c959)
207auto-safe/init-financials TEL runinit-stalenessinit-staleness: TEL financial_scan_v2 <- spec-drift (34b0d5f15726->3164609fa20d)
208surface/init-peers TEL runinit-stalenessinit-staleness: TEL peers_v1 <- corpus-moved (2026-08-18), spec-drift (2cea9ddf2127->76171760a486)
209surface/init-primer TEL runinit-stalenessinit-staleness: TEL primer_v2 <- corpus-moved (2026-08-18), spec-drift (e0bdc9ddf617->af40d06216e2)
210auto-safe/init-valuation TEL runinit-stalenessinit-staleness: TEL valuation_scan_v3 <- spec-drift (aa8e87af22e3->73fbcae43de3)
211surface/republish-dashboards artifact-stalenessartifact-staleness: knowledge-catalog 46.5h behind local (last publish 2026-09-02T15:16:20Z by cloud)
what each kind means · 12 kind(s) live today
KindWhat it isWhat clears it
staged-exposure ×23exposure claims extracted but not yet promoted to the live store/extract-exposure review {T}
staged-edges ×3weighted value-chain edges awaiting promote/edges review {chain}
staged-thesis ×1thesis claims awaiting your promote/reject/thesis review {T}
triage-fixes ×4financial-store fixes proposed by triage, awaiting approval/financials-triage promote {T}
registry-unconfirmed ×1value-chain companies awaiting your CONFIRM/value-chain-registry
waypoint-past ×2a thesis catalyst date has passed ungraded/thesis waypoint {T} {id} --status hit|missed
intake-backlog ×1files idle in Intake\ not yet routed to Corpus/process-dump
staged-people ×4board/officer movement events awaiting promote/people review {T}
calibration-open ×12an open calibration entry awaiting its outcomepython scripts\calibration_store.py transition ...
hypothesis-slate ×1generated hypotheses awaiting adopt/dismiss/thesis adopt {T} --from {slate} --ids h-00N
quarantined-workbook ×13a base-model workbook failed its readiness/guardrail gates/financials {T} after fixing the named blocker
divergence-unhandled ×7the tape moved against a held thesis, unreconciled/reconcile-gap {T}
stray-exposureexposure files sitting where the promote path cannot see themre-home per the triage plan below
signpost-pasta scenario signpost's by-date has passed without tripping - re-read the casepython scripts/bbb_track.py {slug} --grade
staged-guidancemanagement guidance vintages awaiting promote/guidance review
staged-promisesmanagement promises awaiting promote/promises review {T}
KindScopeNOldestAge Clears via
triage-fixesLITE22026-06-3066d/financials-triage promote LITE
triage-fixes676202026-07-0264d/financials-triage promote 6762
hypothesis-slatetheme-ai-optics12026-07-0660d/thesis adopt {T} --from hypotheses_ai-optics_v1 --ids h-00N
waypoint-pastBESI12026-07-2442d/thesis waypoint BESI {waypoint_id} --status hit|missed
BESI waypoint [besi-th-001]: Q2'26 print shows HB order run-rate sustaining and mainstream book-to-bill >1, fo
staged-peopleMCHP112026-07-2541d/people review MCHP
staged-peopleENTG42026-07-3036d/people review ENTG
waypoint-past803512026-07-3135d/thesis waypoint 8035 {waypoint_id} --status hit|missed
8035 waypoint [8035-th-001]: Q1 FY3/27 print: DRAM+NAND new-equipment revenue begins rising off the flat FY26
quarantined-workbook676212026-08-0233d/financials 6762 (blocker: python scripts\quarantine_queue.py --json)
quarantined-workbookASML12026-08-0233d/financials ASML (blocker: python scripts\quarantine_queue.py --json)
quarantined-workbookAPH12026-08-0332d/financials APH (blocker: python scripts\quarantine_queue.py --json)
triage-fixesBE12026-08-0332d/financials-triage promote BE
intake-backlogIntake\1762026-08-0827d/process-dump
staged-peopleUCTT22026-08-0926d/people review UCTT
quarantined-workbookCBRS12026-08-1520d/financials CBRS (blocker: python scripts\quarantine_queue.py --json)
staged-peopleSNPS12026-08-1520d/people review SNPS
registry-unconfirmedvalue-chain registry52026-08-1817d/value-chain-registry (confirm blocks)
staged-exposure6762112026-08-2015d/extract-exposure review 6762
staged-exposure697632026-08-2015d/extract-exposure review 6976
quarantined-workbookQCOM12026-08-2114d/financials QCOM (blocker: python scripts\quarantine_queue.py --json)
triage-fixesQCOM12026-08-2114d/financials-triage promote QCOM
staged-thesisSNVA52026-08-2312d/thesis review SNVA
calibration-openONTO cal-002812026-08-2411dpython scripts\calibration_store.py transition cal-0028 ...
verifier_divergence
staged-exposure233022026-08-2411d/extract-exposure review 2330
staged-exposure303712026-08-2411d/extract-exposure review 3037
staged-exposure406212026-08-2411d/extract-exposure review 4062
staged-exposure672312026-08-2411d/extract-exposure review 6723
staged-exposure696322026-08-2411d/extract-exposure review 6963
staged-exposure698162026-08-2411d/extract-exposure review 6981
staged-exposureADI12026-08-2411d/extract-exposure review ADI
staged-exposureAOSL12026-08-2411d/extract-exposure review AOSL
staged-exposureMPWR12026-08-2411d/extract-exposure review MPWR
staged-exposureNVTS22026-08-2411d/extract-exposure review NVTS
staged-exposurePOWI12026-08-2411d/extract-exposure review POWI
staged-exposureTXN12026-08-2411d/extract-exposure review TXN
staged-exposureWOLF12026-08-2411d/extract-exposure review WOLF
calibration-openLRCX cal-003112026-08-2510dpython scripts\calibration_store.py transition cal-0031 ...
verifier_divergence
calibration-openMU cal-003012026-08-2510dpython scripts\calibration_store.py transition cal-0030 ...
verifier_divergence
staged-edgesmemory62026-08-2510d/edges review memory
staged-exposure68814612026-08-2510d/extract-exposure review 688146
divergence-unhandled697612026-08-269d/reconcile-gap 6976
divergence-unhandledKLAC12026-08-278d/reconcile-gap KLAC
staged-edgesmlcc162026-08-278d/edges review mlcc
staged-edgespower-semis272026-08-278d/edges review power-semis
divergence-unhandledBE12026-08-314d/reconcile-gap BE
divergence-unhandledTER12026-09-013d/reconcile-gap TER
divergence-unhandledASML12026-09-022d/reconcile-gap ASML
calibration-openCRDO cal-003312026-09-031dpython scripts\calibration_store.py transition cal-0033 ...
verifier_divergence
calibration-openCRDO cal-003412026-09-031dpython scripts\calibration_store.py transition cal-0034 ...
verifier_divergence
calibration-openCRDO cal-003512026-09-031dpython scripts\calibration_store.py transition cal-0035 ...
verifier_divergence
calibration-openMRVL cal-003612026-09-031dpython scripts\calibration_store.py transition cal-0036 ...
verifier_divergence
calibration-openMRVL cal-003712026-09-031dpython scripts\calibration_store.py transition cal-0037 ...
verifier_divergence
calibration-openMRVL cal-003812026-09-031dpython scripts\calibration_store.py transition cal-0038 ...
verifier_divergence
calibration-openMRVL cal-003912026-09-031dpython scripts\calibration_store.py transition cal-0039 ...
verifier_divergence
divergence-unhandled353312026-09-031d/reconcile-gap 3533
divergence-unhandled698112026-09-031d/reconcile-gap 6981
quarantined-workbookCRDO12026-09-031d/financials CRDO (blocker: python scripts\quarantine_queue.py --json)
quarantined-workbookTEL12026-09-031d/financials TEL (blocker: python scripts\quarantine_queue.py --json)
staged-exposureAVGO172026-09-031d/extract-exposure review AVGO
staged-exposureCLS42026-09-031d/extract-exposure review CLS
staged-exposureCRDO112026-09-031d/extract-exposure review CRDO
staged-exposureFN32026-09-031d/extract-exposure review FN
staged-exposureIBM22026-09-031d/extract-exposure review IBM
staged-exposureMETA12026-09-031d/extract-exposure review META
staged-exposureNVDA22026-09-031d/extract-exposure review NVDA
calibration-openAMAT cal-004012026-09-040dpython scripts\calibration_store.py transition cal-0040 ...
verifier_divergence
calibration-openAMAT cal-004112026-09-040dpython scripts\calibration_store.py transition cal-0041 ...
verifier_divergence
quarantined-workbook05221--/financials 0522 (blocker: python scripts\quarantine_queue.py --json)
quarantined-workbook24541--/financials 2454 (blocker: python scripts\quarantine_queue.py --json)
quarantined-workbook24921--/financials 2492 (blocker: python scripts\quarantine_queue.py --json)
quarantined-workbook55361--/financials 5536 (blocker: python scripts\quarantine_queue.py --json)
quarantined-workbookIFX1--/financials IFX (blocker: python scripts\quarantine_queue.py --json)
quarantined-workbookNVDA1--/financials NVDA (blocker: python scripts\quarantine_queue.py --json)
What's stale
06

Freshness wall

Which data surfaces are past their re-pull budget. Amber chips = re-pull now.

Per-surface freshness for every built store (position names first), plus industry-theme vintages. Budgets are each surface's own re-pull cadence.

Industry-model themes  mlcc 78d memory 4d wfe 78d ai-accelerators 69d server-cpu 68d cpu-mpu 68d cloud-capex 68d
TickerSurfaces
2454 longmultiples 0d estimates 0d ohlcv 1d post_earn 35d expectations - monthly_revenue 25d va_intake 69d financial_store 62d exposure 56d dossier 63d
2327 longmultiples 2d estimates 2d ohlcv 1d post_earn 21d expectations 4d monthly_revenue 25d va_intake 48d financial_store 48d exposure 38d dossier 48d
2330 longmultiples 0d estimates 0d ohlcv 1d post_earn 21d expectations 4d monthly_revenue 25d va_intake 48d financial_store 48d exposure 24d dossier 43d
5536 longmultiples 0d estimates 0d ohlcv 1d post_earn 24d expectations - monthly_revenue 25d va_intake - financial_store 24d exposure 24d dossier 57d
6762 shortmultiples 0d estimates 0d ohlcv 1d post_earn 79d expectations 4d va_intake 64d financial_store 63d exposure 53d dossier 48d
8035 longmultiples 0d estimates 0d ohlcv 1d post_earn 74d expectations 1d va_intake 48d financial_store 48d exposure 48d dossier 48d
ARM longmultiples 0d estimates 0d ohlcv 1d post_earn 37d expectations 4d va_intake 76d financial_store 63d exposure 26d dossier 63d
KLAC longmultiples 0d estimates 0d ohlcv 1d post_earn 29d expectations 4d va_intake 107d financial_store 63d exposure 28d dossier 43d
TER longmultiples 0d estimates 0d ohlcv 1d post_earn 35d expectations 1d va_intake 79d financial_store 51d exposure 65d dossier 63d
0522 longmultiples 0d estimates 0d ohlcv 1d post_earn 7d expectations 33d va_intake 33d financial_store 33d exposure 38d dossier 9d
ASML shortmultiples 0d estimates 0d ohlcv 1d post_earn 51d expectations 33d va_intake 49d financial_store 33d exposure 4d
IFX longmultiples 0d estimates 0d ohlcv 1d post_earn 30d expectations - va_intake 29d financial_store 29d exposure 28d dossier 63d
005930 shortmultiples 0d estimates 0d ohlcv 1d post_earn 21d expectations 0d va_intake 1d financial_store 0d exposure 4d dossier 63d
3533 longmultiples 0d estimates 0d ohlcv 1d post_earn 21d expectations 1d monthly_revenue 25d va_intake 27d financial_store 27d exposure -
6857 longmultiples 0d estimates 0d ohlcv 1d post_earn 70d expectations 1d va_intake 33d financial_store 1d exposure 63d dossier 63d
6976 longmultiples 0d estimates 0d ohlcv 1d post_earn 73d expectations 4d va_intake 29d financial_store 29d exposure 53d dossier 63d
6981 longmultiples 0d estimates 0d ohlcv 1d post_earn 72d expectations 4d va_intake 15d financial_store 15d exposure 49d dossier 60d
AMAT longmultiples 0d estimates 0d ohlcv 1d post_earn 15d expectations 4d va_intake 20d financial_store 18d exposure 4d dossier 48d
AMD longmultiples 0d estimates 0d ohlcv 1d post_earn 30d expectations 4d va_intake 29d financial_store 29d exposure 26d dossier 63d
BE longmultiples 0d estimates 0d ohlcv 1d post_earn 38d expectations 4d va_intake 33d financial_store 32d exposure 32d dossier 32d
CBRS shortmultiples 0d estimates 0d ohlcv 1d post_earn 23d expectations 20d va_intake 20d financial_store 20d exposure 20d
CRDO longmultiples 0d estimates 0d ohlcv 1d post_earn 2d expectations 1d va_intake 2d financial_store 1d exposure 4d dossier 57d
LITE longmultiples 0d estimates 0d ohlcv 1d post_earn 18d expectations 1d va_intake 20d financial_store 20d exposure 7d dossier 58d
LRCX longmultiples 0d estimates 0d ohlcv 1d post_earn 28d expectations 4d va_intake 50d financial_store 10d exposure 10d dossier 10d
MU longmultiples 0d estimates 0d ohlcv 1d post_earn 71d expectations 1d va_intake 1d financial_store 1d exposure 4d dossier 10d
AVGO longmultiples 0d estimates 0d ohlcv 1d post_earn 2d expectations 0d va_intake 1d financial_store 0d exposure 26d
MKSI longmultiples 0d estimates 0d ohlcv 1d post_earn 29d expectations 4d va_intake 29d financial_store 11d exposure 11d dossier 10d
ONTO longmultiples 0d estimates 0d ohlcv 1d post_earn 29d expectations 4d va_intake 27d financial_store 11d exposure 11d dossier 10d
009150 watchmultiples 74d estimates 74d ohlcv 1d post_earn 112d expectations 4d va_intake 87d financial_store 63d exposure 49d dossier 63d
4062 watchmultiples 26d estimates 26d ohlcv 1d post_earn 78d expectations 4d va_intake 47d financial_store 47d exposure 43d dossier 43d
BESI watchmultiples 49d estimates 49d ohlcv 1d post_earn 134d expectations 4d va_intake 76d financial_store 63d exposure 70d
2308 watchmultiples 33d estimates 33d ohlcv 1d post_earn 37d expectations 4d monthly_revenue 25d va_intake 58d financial_store 48d exposure 53d dossier 48d
2492 watchmultiples 48d estimates 48d ohlcv 1d post_earn 121d monthly_revenue 25d financial_store 48d exposure 20d
INTC watchmultiples 26d estimates 26d ohlcv 1d post_earn 42d expectations 4d va_intake 45d financial_store 43d exposure 26d dossier 43d
TEL watchmultiples 38d estimates 38d ohlcv 1d post_earn 42d expectations 1d va_intake 49d financial_store 38d exposure 38d dossier 48d
3037 watchmultiples 33d estimates 33d ohlcv 1d post_earn 38d expectations 4d monthly_revenue 25d va_intake 33d financial_store 29d exposure 26d dossier 29d
QCOM watchmultiples 33d estimates 33d ohlcv 1d post_earn 37d expectations 4d va_intake 14d financial_store 14d exposure 9d dossier 14d
285A watchmultiples 33d estimates 33d ohlcv 1d post_earn 72d expectations 4d va_intake 4d financial_store 4d exposure 4d
APH watchmultiples 33d estimates 33d ohlcv 1d post_earn 35d va_intake 33d financial_store 32d exposure 26d
NVDA watchmultiples - estimates - ohlcv 1d va_intake 8d financial_store 8d exposure 4d
RBLX watchmultiples 1d estimates 1d ohlcv 1d post_earn 36d va_intake 1d financial_store 1d exposure 0d dossier 1d
000660 watchmultiples 2d estimates 2d ohlcv 1d post_earn 21d expectations 1d va_intake 4d financial_store 1d exposure 4d
Is the machine healthy
07

Ops strip

Is the machine itself healthy - runners, logs, backups, eval gates. Click a chip for what it measures + the fix.

Infrastructure state - backup, git, adapter logs, scheduled tasks, behavioral evals, and the exposure funnel. Coverage counters first (the strip that used to crowd the masthead).

351
universe
34
held
42
stores
137
exposure promoted
43
thesis ledgers
197
stale modules
72
decision queue
291
radar 60d
344
price tapes
32
targets computed
1
system views
294
corpus thin
BackupRMS backup receipt
age of the offline backup mirror (backup.ps1 to the external drive) · healthy: under ~14d old
powershell scripts\backup.ps1
Last commit2026-09-04 (0d ago)
when the workspace repo last committed · healthy: under ~7d old
git add -A; git commit
Adapter logs 7d104 ERROR line(s) · 0 .err file(s) · 3349 logs
ERROR lines + .err files across scripts\adapters\logs over the last 7 days - a vendor tab that silently failed · healthy: 0 errors
open the named log, then re-run that adapter
Scheduled tasks22 of 28 green
registered ResearchSystem-* Task Scheduler jobs and their last-run result · healthy: all green
python scripts\ops_health.py --json
Golden set2026-09-03 · 0 probes · all pass
the last behavioral golden-set eval run (rule-drift net) · healthy: 0 fails, under ~7d old
run the golden set per evals\golden_set.md
Funnel351 tracked · 42 stores · exposure 137 promoted / 8 staged / 206 none
universe -> financial stores -> exposure promotion funnel · healthy: promoted grows; nothing stuck staged
/extract-exposure review {T}
Built2026-09-04T08:17:10 · parity: run gen_dashboard.py --check
when this page was generated · healthy: under ~14h (regenerates 08:15 + 20:15)
python scripts\gen_dashboard.py
Probe net2026-07-09 (57d ago)
the last dashboard probe-net run (structure/behavior checks) · healthy: under ~14d old
python scripts\run_dashboard_probes.py
Snapshot ledger55 day(s) · 7517.8 KB · since 2026-07-09
depth of the since-last-run snapshot ledger (powers the delta ribbon) · healthy: grows daily
(automatic on every build)
Drain receiptslast 2026-09-03: 8 row(s) · 7d: 27 distinct command(s) over 18 name(s)
what the unattended 20:15 auto-safe drain actually ran (append-only receipts, System\Ops\drain_log.csv) · healthy: distinct commands/names GROW night to night - a flat count means the drain is re-running the same head-of-queue rows and the tail is starving
python scripts\drain_ledger.py recent --days 7
Artifact copiesknowledge-catalog: 46.5h behind (cloud) · pm-dashboard: 24.6h behind (interactive)
freshness of the published claude.ai artifact copies of this page + KNOWLEDGE (the work-computer bookmarks) · healthy: under ~26h behind the local page (the cloud routine republishes 23:00 SGT off the evening build)
/republish-dashboards
read receipts - 20 collector(s), each build re-reads the stores fresh
collectorstatusrowsms
decision_ledgerok23.1
init_stalenessok192761.1
exposure_mapok3517918.5
tapeok351887.9
target_modelok3512439.4
corpusok3511947.3
slopesok518.3
postprintok541704.8
coverageok35160449.6
compsok3714.1
queueok72197.2
actions_panelok2116.1
radarok29134.6
news_flowok80254.8
implicationsok7141.6
scenariosok22.7
freshnessok421462.9
opsok91247.7
pm_decisionsok1796532.2
bookok74759.8
Design system

Specimen sheet

Rendered live from the page's own CSS - if this section looks wrong, the page is wrong. Written contract: System_Blueprint\DASHBOARD-DESIGN.md · enforced by scripts\lint_dashboard_design.py (probes D-LINT-01..07).

House tokens (extracted verbatim from SYSTEM-ATLAS.html at build)

bgpaperpaper-2inkink-softink-muteink-faintrulerule-softrule-strongrail-bgrail-inkrail-muterail-ruleaccentaccent-railaccent-softaccent-soft-2positivepositive-softnegativenegative-softwarningwarning-softgoldgold-softs1s2s3s4s5s-forecasts-forecast-bgs-grids-axis

Type scale - 7 steps, every font-size on the page is one of these

--fs-label column heads, chips, buttons
--fs-caption provenance, hints, legends
--fs-data mono numbers, tickers, commands
--fs-body table prose, panel text
--fs-display masthead brand only
--fs-section section heads, drawer title
--fs-kpi stat values
mono means "this came from disk": every number, ticker, date, age, version and command string is mono. Archivo carries the machine layer, Newsreader the prose. Density tiers remap roles to other steps, never new sizes.

Spacing scale 4/6/8/12/16/24/40

State grammar - form first, color second (grayscale-safe)

v3·12d quiet soft fill - the norm reads quiet
v3·98d hollow outline carrying age
STAGED soft fill + leading dot - waiting on promote
GATED dashed outline - a gate across the path
THIN soft fill + solid outline - built, walls thin
- bare faint dash - nothing there at all
ERR inverse solid - the loudest object here
row treatments: a gold left rule = held name (the one emphasis device, identical in every view); a negative left rule + negative ticker = claims approaching falsification (outranks everything); faded row = archived or decision-ledger hold. Positions always render as tagpills: long short watch closed.

Interface writing

Labels in sentence case (uppercase is reserved for the mono label register). Every empty state is an instruction naming the fix command in mono. Errors name the failing source and the fix - never vague, never apologetic. No state is conveyed by color alone - always form or text plus color.